College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: The Moneyline Bet to Make for Saturday’s Big 12 Game (Oct. 2)

College Football Odds, Predictions, Picks for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: The Moneyline Bet to Make for Saturday’s Big 12 Game (Oct. 2) article feature image
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John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Baylor Bears standout Abram Smith.

  • The Baylor Bears and Oklahoma State Cowboys take the field in a Big 12 college football matchup on Saturday.
  • The Bears are coming off a big win over Iowa State, while the Pokes toppled a solid Kansas State squad.
  • Alex Hinton breaks down the game below and shares a betting pick and prediction based on his analysis.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Baylor Odds +4
Oklahoma State Odds -4
Moneyline +155 / -180
Over/Under 48 (-105 / -115)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Baylor Bears head to Stillwater, Oklahoma, on Saturday to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a battle of unbeaten 4-0 teams. Both programs are coming off wins in which they answered some big questions.

Baylor’s first three wins came against Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas. Given it won just two games last year, the soft schedule made it easy to question how much Baylor had improved. Last week, the Bears took down No. 14 Iowa State, 31-29, in a tight home victory.

Oklahoma State’s 3-0 start included a road win on the Smurf Turf at Boise State. However, the Cowboys had struggled to put points on the board, which is something we’re not used to seeing in the Mike Gundy era. Last week, the Cowboys jumped on Kansas State with 21 first-quarter points en route to a 31-20 triumph.

Now, Oklahoma State’s matchup with Baylor could have Big 12 title implications down the line. This will be the 40th meeting in the series, with Oklahoma State holding a 21-18 advantage.


Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
7 p.m. ET
ESPN2

Baylor Bears

Baylor Offense

Baylor has a highly efficient offense that flows through its running game.

Running backs Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner form one of the best backfield tandems in the Big 12, with both averaging seven yards per carry. Ebner was a difference-maker last week on special teams, returning a kickoff for a touchdown and setting up a field goal with a long punt return.

Baylor’s running game set up its play-action and read-option attack.

Quarterback Gerry Bohanon can run himself, plus he’s an efficient passer. For the season, Bohanon is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Last week, he carved up Iowa State, going 14-for-19 for 159 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 36 yards and another touchdown.

Baylor’s offensive line has been strong this season, ranking first in the country in Line Yards and pass-blocking grade, sixth in Rushing Success Rate, and eighth in Passing Success Rate.


Baylor Defense

Baylor’s defense struggled a bit last week, giving up 479 total yards to Iowa State. That included 190 rushing yards from Cyclones running back Breece Hall.

The Bears did come up with a few key timely stops, including an interception while Iowa State was driving for a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter.

The good news for Baylor is Oklahoma State doesn’t have an offensive player the caliber of Hall.

For the season, Baylor has a strong unit overall. The Bears give up 15.8 points per game, which ranks 19th in the country. The Bears rank 13th in passing yards allowed per game, 19th in Passing Success Rate, and 32th in pass coverage grade.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State Offense

The Cowboys finally cracked the 30-point mark last week (just barely), but it still finds itself 90th in scoring at 25.8 points per game.

Quarterback Spencer Sanders, who has already missed a game, has had a hard time adjusting to life without running back Chuba Hubbard and wide receiver Tylan Wallace.

Oklahoma State has been unable to get its running game going to take the pressure off Sanders. The Cowboys rank 76th in Rushing Success Rate, 111th in Havoc, and 118th in Havoc Allowed.

However, Jaylen Warren has been a bright spot with 200 yards from scrimmage in each of the last two games. He ranks 18th in the FBS with 126 yards from scrimmage per game.

Wide receiver Tay Martin is the Cowboys’ top target on the perimeter. Martin leads the team in yards, catches, and touchdowns.


Oklahoma State Defense

The Cowboys have had to rely on their defense and, for the most part, they have answered the bell. Oklahoma State is surrendering just 19.8 PPG. The Cowboys pulled out the win over Boise State despite not scoring in the second half because the defense shut the Broncos out as well.

The Cowboys run a 4-2-5 formation, with safety Kolby Harvey-Peel the star of the unit. Harvey-Peel has 26 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions.  Defensive end Brock Martin leads the team in tackles for loss (4.5) and sacks (2.5) so far this season.


Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Baylor Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 6 42
Line Yards 1 76
Pass Success 8 82
Pass Blocking** 1 30
Big Play 6 32
Havoc 33 95
Finishing Drives 41 30
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Baylor Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 76 47
Line Yards 111 79
Pass Success 102 19
Pass Blocking** 64 62
Big Play 85 47
Havoc 118 27
Finishing Drives 58 72
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 45 118
PFF Coverage 32 88
Middle 8 31 64
SP+ Special Teams 31 89
Plays per Minute 113 45
Rush Rate 64.1% (19) 60.2% (31)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick

When you really dig into this matchup, it’s hard to believe Oklahoma State is the favorite. Baylor has an advantage in nearly every category, with the edge on both sides of the line of the scrimmage really sticks out.

Baylor ranks 33rd in Havoc Allowed and Oklahoma State ranks 95th in Havoc.

Baylor’s offensive line should allow the Bears to have success both through the air and on the ground. Additionally, Oklahoma State ranks 118th in tackling. One missed tackle on Smith and Ebner can turn into a score with their speed.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State sits 118th in Havoc Allowed while Baylor ranks 27th in Havoc. Baylor is going to live in Oklahoma State’s backfield and make things difficult on Sanders and the Oklahoma State running game.

If Baylor can put Oklahoma State behind the chains on standard downs, it could lead to a few three and outs for the Cowboys. Baylor’s offensive line will help the Bears sustain drives, control time of possession and wear down Oklahoma State’s defense.

I’m confident Baylor covers the spread, and if you want to be safer, that’s the play that you’ll want to make. However, I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup, and I think the Bears win outright.

Pick: Baylor ML +155

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