College Football Odds & Picks: Collin Wilson’s Top Bets for Monday’s CFP Semifinals

The day we've been waiting for since the end of August is finally here. It's time for the College Football Playoff.

After three bowl games earlier in the day, all eyes in the college football world will turn to the Rose Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines and the Sugar Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies.

With both spreads sitting under a touchdown and plenty of stars taking the field on both sides of the ball in both games, we should be in for a fun day.

The anticipation over the last month has been enough buildup, so let's dive into my betting card and previews for both College Football Playoff semifinal games on Monday night.

Collin Wilson's CFP Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Monday's slate of College Football Playoff games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

While Florida State has every reason to be disgruntled with the College Football Playoff selection committee, no fan of the sport will complain about Michigan vs. Alabama matchup in the Rose Bowl.

Both Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh last met in the 2020 Citrus Bowl, a 35-16 stomping by the Crimson Tide. Alabama leads the all-time series, 3-2, further adding to Harbaugh's struggles in bowl games.

Michigan has lost six straight bowl games under Harbaugh, including the last two semifinal games against Georgia and TCU. The program now enters the Rose Bowl for the 21st time, losing the previous three dating back to 2004.

The Wolverines faced the 35th-toughest strength of schedule, facing only three top-25 teams in Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State.

There were consistent issues in the passing game down the stretch, as Michigan enters the national semifinals looking to buck recent history for its coach.

Amid allegations of sign stealing, the Wolverines powered through the final three regular-season games without their coach.

Alabama is no stranger to having a month of preparation before a semifinal game, winning six of these matchups in a row with the only loss coming to Ohio State in the initial College Football Playoff in 2015.

The 2023 campaign may be Saban's best coaching job yet, bringing in new coordinators on both sides of the ball while dealing with a quarterback competition that lasted through late September.

The Crimson Tide suffered a loss at home to fellow playoff program Texas, rattling off 11 consecutive victories after the setback.

Alabama then ended one of the longest winning streaks in college football, beating former Saban assistant Kirby Smart and Georgia for the SEC Championship.

Now, Saban has a chance to pass Bear Bryant in national titles won at Alabama, vying for his seventh in 17 seasons in Tuscaloosa.

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Saban made up his mind that Jalen Milroe would be the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season after the offensive struggles displayed during the South Florida game.

Since being named the full-time starter, Milroe has produced 18 big-time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays through the air. Similar to former quarterback Jalen Hurts, Milroe is lethal on the ground in any situation with 479 yards from scrambles and 214 from designed calls.

Milroe can beat a defense in a handful of ways, from finding wheel routes under pressure to deep passing and inside zone rush attempts.

Whether quick slants or deep routes are the call, Milroe has produced a quarterback rating above 100 in numerous different release time metrics.

The unexpected aspect of Milroe's passing is the success he finds downfield. The sophomore has logged 24 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays on 64 passing attempts beyond 20 yards.

Slot receiver Isaiah Bond has become Milroe's favorite target, averaging more than two yards per route run. While Bond takes the shorter routes, Jermaine Burton and Kobe Prentice have generated at least 2.8 yards per route run and 10 receiving touchdowns.

For all of Alabama's struggles to find a quarterback entering the season, Milroe has emerged as one of the best deep-ball passers in college football.

Much like Michigan, the defense has been a rock for the Crimson Tide.

The secondary grades as the best coverage unit in the nation, per PFF. Cornerback Terrion Arnold leads the team with 12 pass breakups, which is also one of the highest individual numbers in college football.

EDGE Chris Braswell paces the unit in pressures, just surpassing outside linebacker Dallas Turner with 54 on the season.

Coordinator Kevin Steele has a defense that dominates outside zone run concepts out of the 3-3-5 personnel. The down-to-down Success Rate numbers are some of the best in FBS, complemented by a top-10 tackle grade.

If there's an area of weakness, Bama allows an average of 3.9 points on opponent drives that extend beyond the 40-yard line. The red-zone issues could be a factor against a Michigan offense that's top-20 in red-zone touchdown scoring.

The Michigan passing attack all but vaporized over the final month of the season, as quarterback JJ McCarthy failed to crack 150 passing yards over the final four games.

The struggles started when McCarthy didn't attempt a pass in the second half against Penn State and then continued when he generated four turnover-worthy plays against Maryland.

This version of the Wolverines has not shown the same explosiveness off McCarthy's arm compared to last season when the quarterback posted 343 yards and multiple touchdowns against TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.

Instead, Michigan has relied on Blake Corum and the ground game to dominate opposing defenses.

Michigan must deal with the loss of senior offensive lineman Zak Zinter — a crucial piece to the run-blocking efficiency for Corum. Zinter was the "soul of the program," logging nearly every snap at right guard since the 2021 season.

The loss particularly hurts the inside zone read option run by McCarthy and Corum, which generated an average Success Rate of 47% this season.

Zinter was frequently used to generate first downs, as Corum generated 12 first downs and an average of 6.1 yards per carry over the right guard position.

While the Michigan offense failed to create a consistent amount of explosives, the defense saved the team down the stretch. Coordinator Jesse Minter dominated Big Ten offenses with 2-4-5 personnel and a heavy amount of Cover 3.

Michigan ranks top-10 in nearly every defensive category. The Wolverines were Havoc-minded, producing 13 fumbles while ranking top-five in broken tackles allowed.

The market continues to get flooded with Alabama money, yet there has been minimal movement in the early number. While the Crimson Tide take the majority of bets at shops with low limits, the Michigan moneyline is the preferred side at the larger shops.

There's an overwhelming sentiment that the numbers produced by the Wolverines are a bit fraudulent considering the strength of offenses faced, as only Ohio State ranks in the top 40.

While Alabama has certainly been through trial by fire, there may be a better path for Michigan to advance to Houston.

Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore opted to run Corum at a higher rate than normal in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal. This version of the offensive line is not getting the same push as previous semifinal squads and will look to attack Alabama with inside zone, man and power run concepts.

The great news for the Wolverines is that the Alabama front seven dominates outside zone, a concept rarely used by Michigan. If Michigan can overcome the loss of Zinter on the offensive line, Alabama ranks 103rd in Defensive Stuff Rate.

McCarthy must return to form after suffering an injured ankle that lingered into the Big Ten Championship game against Iowa. McCarthy did not post an explosive run through the last month of the season and has attempted just 16 scrambles this season — a drop-off from the 24 he attempted a season ago.

For Michigan to be successful with inside zone, Crimson Tide edge defenders must believe McCarthy is a viable threat to run at the level he did in 2022.

The Wolverines defense must execute on several bullet points to stave off the attack led by Milroe.

While Milroe has excelled with the deep ball, he has been awful when it comes to mid-range throws. The quarterback has posted just a single big-time throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in 62 attempts from 10-19 yards.

Georgia played quarters coverage and allowed those areas to be open, forcing Milroe's only turnover-worthy play to come on an attempt between 10 and 19 yards downfield.

Milroe continues to pass on downfield throws, electing to run or hit a running back on the wheel route.

The path for the Michigan defense is clear: keep Milroe in the pocket and take away the deep pass. This was the path for both Georgia and Texas, each giving the middle of the field away to keep Milroe grounded in the pocket.

For the Michigan offense, McCarthy must return as a dual-threat signal-caller after his ankle injury. The Alabama defense can be beaten with inside zone, as its defensive efficiency drops closer and closer to the goal line.

The loss of Zinter at right guard must be overcome for Michigan to find success on inside zone attempts.

Finally, Michigan must change up the offensive playbook and find explosives early. Moore utilized a similar plan in what turned out to be a high-scoring Fiesta Bowl against TCU a year ago.

Action Network projects the game as a pick'em on a neutral field with a total of 50.

If the Wolverines come out with a fully healthy McCarthy and running back Donovan Edwards, Michigan's tempo and rate of explosives will easily push the scoring over the total.

One player who can make a difference is Michigan slot Roman Wilson, who has hauled in 11 touchdowns this season. Of all the pass routes faced by Alabama's elite secondary, the Crimson Tide have been most vulnerable against the slant.

There are two sample semifinal games to pull from.

Michigan attempted to line up and run over Georgia in 2021. When that failed, the same Michigan team elected to go spread and utilize explosives against TCU a season ago.

Considering the success Payton Thorne had with his mobility in the Iron Bowl, McCarthy is the central figure for any scoring against Alabama.

There's every expectation that Michigan will open up the playbook to prevent a repeat of the 2021 Peach Bowl semifinal against Georgia.

The Wolverines must have everything break right, including the turnover margin against Milroe.

Pick: Over 44.5 · Michigan ML -120 · Roman Wilson Anytime TD +170

A repeat of the 2022 Alamo Bowl will take place in the 2023 national semifinal game at the Sugar Bowl when the Texas Longhorns take on the Washington Huskies.

Texas last visited New Orleans in 2019, a victory over a Georgia team that was on the verge of multiple national titles.

Washington will look to do the unthinkable — travel to a hostile environment in SEC territory for the chance to compete for a National Championship. Kalen DeBoer is 103-11 as a head coach but has his toughest assignment yet with the Huskies having never participated in the Sugar Bowl.

Washington went undefeated on the season, sweeping a Pac-12 schedule full of top-25 teams.

The Huskies struggled down the stretch, challenged in one-possession victories over Arizona State and Washington State. They flexed in the Pac-12 Championship game against Oregon, dominating on third downs and cashing in on scoring opportunities.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is fulfilling his quest to get the Longhorns back as a national power. A Week 2 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa made the Longhorns a true national title contender, and their only loss on the season was to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.

Supported by the best rush defense in the nation, Texas populated an offensive roster with explosive playmakers on the outside.

While the Superdome will be filled to the brim with Longhorns fans, a victory would seal a national title berth in the state of Texas for Sarkisian.

The rise of Texas has been a slow burn, as Sarkisian missed bowl season in 2021 and ended last year with a disappointing 8-5 record.

Elite recruiting and transfer portal activity before the 2023 season led to team depth and explosiveness at the skill positions.

Junior wide receiver Xavier Worthy averaged 2.3 yards per route run, adding an explosive element upon the arrival of Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers saw massive improvement over 2022, cutting his turnover-worthy play rate nearly in half.

The offense will be without leading rusher Jonathon Brooks, who accumulated more than 1,100 yards before suffering a season-ending injury. Both CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue will use outside zone concepts to improve a rank of 69th in Rushing Success Rate.

Ewers is expected to see plenty of passing downs in the Sugar Bowl and has dominated Cover 3 while posting average Success Rates against Cover 1.

The rush defense has been the strength of the Longhorns, led by the defensive interior of T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. The combination led to a top-10 defensive ranking in pass rush and Stuff Rate.

The nickel package of coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski used blitz on 33% of snaps while implementing heavy-quarters coverage.

Where the Texas defense struggled was in the back end, ranking 64th in passing expected points. Cornerback Terrance Brooks and linebacker Jaylan Ford turned in two of the lowest coverage grades, per PFF.

Meanwhile, safety Derek Williams Jr. will miss the first half of this game because of a targeting violation in the Big 12 Championship.

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The most elite passing attack in the nation comes from Seattle, led by super senior quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Both Penix and DeBoer worked together at Indiana, running an offensive style that took advantage of Big Ten defenses. The Huskies utilize a 58% pass-to-run ratio, often using play-action to set up downfield targets. Penix finished the season with 33 touchdowns, 12 of which came from play-action passing.

The Huskies ended the season ranked in the top 10 in Success Rate in terms of both the rush and pass. Running back Dillon Johnson averaged more than three yards after contact in logging 14 rushing touchdowns on the season.

The offensive line was the recipient of the 2023 Joe Moore Award, signifying the most prestigious unit in college football. This same offensive line protected Penix in the 2022 Alamo Bowl, allowing just five pressures in 55 true passing attempts.

Defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell had Washington prepared for Oregon in the conference championship game.

The Ducks averaged 6.2 yards per rush and a minimal 5.4 average yards to go on third downs during the regular season. The Huskies allowed Oregon to convert just three third-down attempts, a swarming effort not seen in the second half of the season schedule.

The 2-4-5 defense has had issues defending the run over the course of the season, ranking 132nd in Line Yards. The biggest struggles came from opposing offenses running inside zone, as the Huskies had plenty of success stopping outside zone.

There's no expectation that Washington will establish the run against Texas' defensive front.

Johnson and Penix have run 159 inside zone plays this season, averaging a high Success Rate of 62%. The Longhorns are dominant against outside zone, falling back to the national average Success Rate at 47% against inside zone.

Any success running the ball will help set up the bread and butter of the Washington offense — the play-action pass. Nearly 20% of the Huskies' passing comes through play-action, as Washington averaged a whopping 67% Success Rate with an explosive play rate of 38%.

This is the most crucial aspect for the Texas defense, which dominated play-action for most of the season.

Penix will see plenty of quarters coverage from the Longhorns, which will be looking to put pressure on the southpaw quarterback.

Penix has one of the lowest pressure-to-sack ratios in the country at 3.2%, perhaps signaling that last year's nullified pass rush from the Longhorns in the Alamo Bowl will repeat.

The Texas secondary will struggle to defend the Huskies' favorite passing routes. Penix's most frequent targets come on hitches, outs and wide receiver screens. Texas has been dreadful against hitches and wide receiver screens, producing a Success Rate of just 37%.

With Washington expected to piece together methodical drives to set up scoring opportunities, the Longhorns must have their best effort from a Finishing Drives perspective.

Scoring opportunities have been hit or miss for Texas, averaging just 3.8 points on 98 drives extending beyond the 40-yard line. That number sags even further in the red zone, ranking 121st in touchdown rate.

Texas has the statistical advantage in many other categories, including special teams, tackle grading and explosives. Despite the advantages, there's a clear path to a Washington victory on the Superdome's fast track.

Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are the deadliest trio of receivers in college football, a master challenge for a Texas secondary that has struggled to defend the pass.

The Washington defense must produce a swarming effort on third downs, similar to its outstanding play in the Pac-12 Championship. DeBoer has the edge in Middle 8 scoring, quickly becoming one of the best in-game coaches in college football.

A Texas victory must include elite execution in scoring position, an issue that has plagued the Horns all season. Washington will produce plenty of scoring opportunities running screens and hitches, especially without pressure on Penix.

Look for the Huskies to potentially move on to Houston to compete for the National Championship.

Pick: Washington +4 or Better

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