College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Duke vs Wake Forest: Points, Points and More Points Expected
Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Hartman.
- No. 13 Wake Forest dropped 70 points last week against Army and is undefeated on the season.
- Duke is heading in the opposite direction as it has lost three in a row, including two road games.
- Alex Hinton breaks down this ACC rivalry game and offers up his best bet.
Duke vs. Wake Forest Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -110 | 71.5 -115o / -105u | +525 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -110 | 71.5 -115o / -105u | -760 |
As we draw closer to November, Duke fans may have already turned their attention to basketball season. However, the Blue Devils' football team will head to Winston Salem to battle the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The Blue Devils come into this one at 3-4 and 0-3 in ACC play. They will be coming off a bye week and will be looking to shake off a three-game losing streak.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is in the middle of a dream season as it comes in at 7-0 and 4-0 in ACC play. The No. 13 Demon Deacons won a wild shootout 70-56 at Army last week.
The Demon Deacons will look to continue momentum as a big favorite this week. However, with two top offenses, Wake could find itself in another shootout.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Offense
Duke is 14th in the FBS in total offense at 471.4 YPG, however, that has not always translated to points. Duke averages 27 points, but that ranks 77th in the FBS.
While the Blue Devils will move the ball, they rank 110th in Finishing Drives.
In ACC play, Duke is averaging 11 points per game. Wake Forest's defense is 83rd in Finishing Drives, so the Blue Devils may be able to capitalize on their opportunities this week.
Duke ranks 26th in Passing Success Rate. Quarterback Gunnar Holmberg is completing 70% of his passes with six touchdown passes and six interceptions. He has added six touchdowns on the ground.
Running back Mataeo Durant paces the Blue Devils' ground attack and is fourth in the country with 124.2 rushing yards per game. He has 870 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this season.
Duke Defense
It would behoove Duke to capitalize on its own scoring opportunities as its own defense has been giving them up left and right.
Defensively, Duke ranks 118th in Finishing Drives.
Overall, the defensive numbers for Duke are not pretty. The Blue Devils are 104th in scoring defense (31 PPG). Duke is 64th in Passing Success Rate and 78th in pass rush grade. That could be problematic against a high-powered Wake Forest passing attack.
Linebacker Shaka Heyward and safety Lummie Young IV are Duke's leaders on defense. Hayward leads the team with 60 tackles, while Young IV is second on the team with 51.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest Offense
Quietly, quarterback Sam Hartman has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 65% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions.
He is coming off a 458-yard and five-touchdown performance against Army. Incredibly, the Demon Deacons scored 70 points while possessing the ball for just 17 minutes last week.
The Demon Deacons are now fifth in the FBS in scoring at 43.5 points per game.
Wake Forest rotates three backs, Christian Beal, Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. Ellison leads the team in yards per carry (5.4), while Beal leads the team in touchdowns with six.
Jaquarii Roberson and A.T. Perry are a potent duo at receiver. Roberson has even emerged as an NFL prospect.
Wake Forest Defense
Though the Demon Deacons are undefeated, it is not because of their defense.
Wake Forest ranks 120th in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate and 125th in Line Yards. The Demon Deacons can be vulnerable to giving up the big play, which reared its head last week. Army had five touchdowns over 20 yards.
Wake Forest will have a slight edge in Havoc against Duke, however, the Blue Devils should have success both through the air and on the ground.
Wake Forest ranks 83rd in Finishing Drives, so if Duke is able to figure out its own issues, it could be a really high-scoring game.
Duke vs. Wake Forest Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Wake Forest match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 120 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 45 | 49 |  |
| Big Play | 78 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 83 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Wake Forest Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 64 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 13 | 78 | |
| Big Play | 67 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 118 | 21 |
| Coverage | 94 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 35 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 100 | 24 |
| Plays per Minute | 8 | 10 |
| Rush Rate | 57.9% (46) | 56.% (60) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Duke vs. Wake Forest Betting Pick
Last week, Wake Forest was able to clear the total by itself, but Army did too.
With the total being 70, it will be difficult for Wake to clear the total by itself again this week. However, I still expect the over to hit.
Duke and Wake Forest both play at a very fast tempo, with Duke being eighth in plays per minute while Wake Forest is 10th. That means there will be a lot of plays and possessions in a game where both offenses have significant advantages against the other's defense.
I would take over 70 and I would play it up to 72.5.
Pick: Over 70
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