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Florida vs. Tennessee Odds & Picks: Early Betting Value on Vols

Florida vs. Tennessee Odds & Picks: Early Betting Value on Vols article feature image

Courtney Culbreath/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Pitts.

Florida vs. Tennessee Odds

Florida Odds -18 [BET NOW]
Tennessee Odds +18 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -750 / +525 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 62.5 [BET NOW]
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
Odds updated Saturday afternoon and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today.

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Florida Gators

While the Florida offense continues to blow opponents out, the defense came under the microscope in a Week 13 victory over Kentucky. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has struggled to build momentum on a defense that is 107th in pass coverage and 93rd in tackling. Before the final play of a 14-play, 87-yard Kentucky scoring drive, Mullen lit into Grantham.

Dan Mullen absolutely going in on Todd Grantham

— Ben Murphy (@BenMurphyTV) November 28, 2020

Mullen sidestepped what the conversation was about, but the head coach knows he cannot beat Alabama with a defense that cannot get a stop. The Gators have posted four or more three-and-outs in just two games this season. Grantham will certainly look to keep the Tennessee scoring to a minimum.

The Kentucky game was business as usual for the Gators, as they gained 59% of available yards with a monster 66% Success Rate on standard downs. Quarterback Kyle Trask welcomed tight end Kyle Pitts back into the fold with seven targets for three touchdowns.

Welcome back, Kyle Pitts 🐊

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 28, 2020

Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers have now lost five consecutive games, including two against Arkansas and Kentucky, by a combined 38 points. The job status of Jeremy Pruitt is in the balance of university finances and the appetite for hiring Hugh Freeze from Liberty. A victory over Florida would stave off the unemployment status for Pruitt, but the numbers may not be in favor of an upset.

Tennessee has been dreadful in downfield passing and putting points on the board. An Offensive Finishing Drives rank of 116th derives from an average 2.7 points per trip past the 40-yard line. Whether the quarterback has been Jarrett Guarantano or Harrison Bailey, the Volunteers rank 123rd in expected points in passing attempts. Tennessee has just one pass the entire season that has eclipsed 40 yards.

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Betting Analysis & Pick


Tennessee has come away victorious just once over its past 15 tries against Florida, covering just three of the past 10 in the series. That should not change in Week 14, as Florida ranks fourth in Passing Success Rate in contrast to the Tennessee defense that is 116th in Passing Success Rate.

There’s reason to believe that Tennessee may be able to find success running the ball, as the Gators are 107th in Defensive Rushing Success rate. The Volunteers sitting in the top 25 in Line Yards serves as a positive, although the end zone has eluded the team all season.

The biggest issue for Tennessee has been halftime adjustments. The Volunteers have won just one second half the entire season, a 14-6 output against Missouri. SEC coaches have done so well in adjustments at halftime that Tennessee has been outscored 108-14 through the five-game losing streak.

The hook on the full game spread for the Volunteers is appetizing, but the better bet is to take the Volunteers in the first half.

Pick: Tennessee +9.5 1H or better.

[Bet Tennessee 1H now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]

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