Cal vs. Washington College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Bet Pac-12 After Dark (Sept. 25)

Cal vs. Washington College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Bet Pac-12 After Dark (Sept. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images. Pictured: Chase Garbers.

Cal vs. Washington Odds

Cal Odds +7.5 (-115)
Washington Odds -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline +250 / -300
Over/Under 47.5
Time 9:30 p.m. ET
TV PAC-12 Network
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

One of the best things about conference play beginning in earnest across the country is Pac-12 After Dark.

One of the four late games this week features the California Golden Bears taking on the Washington Huskies. Both programs went 1-2 in nonconference play, albeit in very different fashion.

Cal lost a couple of hard-fought battles to Nevada and TCU to open the season before a 42-30 win over Sacramento State that was not as close as the final score indicated.

Washington was embarassed in Week 1, losing to Montana before getting physically dominated by Michigan. Washington’s get-right game came against Arkansas State, a 52-3 Week 3 victory.

Cal has had the edge in this series in recent years. The Golden Bears have won the last two meetings and two of the last three meetings in Seattle.


Cal vs. Washington Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
9:30 p.m. ET
PAC-12 Network

California Golden Bears

Cal Offense

Cal has been a defensive-minded team under head coach Justin Wilcox, but this season it’s been all about the offense.

The Golden Bears have a balanced attack, averaging 258 passing yards per game and 177.3 rushing yards. The 435.3 yards per game of total offense is the most in the Wilcox era, along with a scoring average of 30.3 PPG.

The uptick in offensive production stems from creating more explosiveness.

Quarterback Chase Garbers is averaging nearly eight yards per attempt and has four receivers averaging 18 yards per catch. Against Sacramento State, the Golden Bears had 13 plays of 15 or more yards, six through the air and seven on the ground.


Cal Defense

The Golden Bears have struggled defensively this season, with pass defense being the main culprit. The Golden Bears are allowing 448.3 yards per game and 318 passing yards per game, which ranks 123rd in the country.

Facing Carson Strong and Max Duggan in the first two weeks is a big reason for this. However against Sacramento State, the Golden Bears allowed 14 passing plays of 15 or more yards.

The standouts on the Cal defense are linebacker Cameron Goode and safety Daniel Scott. Goode has three tackles for loss and two sacks while Scott has 19 tackles and two interceptions.


Washington Huskies

Washington Offense

The question stemming from the first two weeks was how this Washington team would score. The Huskies put up 17 points in the first two games and went from the first quarter against Montana to the fourth quarter against Michigan without a touchdown.

The Huskies broke out in a big way with 52 points against Arkansas State. Granted, Arkansas State has one of the worst defenses in the country. However, the Huskies did benefit from getting healthier at wide receiver.

Wide receiver Jalen McMillan missed the first two games of the season, but he went off for 10 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

With McMillan back along with Terrell Bynum and Tahj Davis, quarterback Dylan Morris has a dangerous trio on the perimeter.

That’ll help the Huskies put up points, even if they cannot get the running game going. 


Washington Defense

One thing that you know you are going to get from a Washington team is great play in the secondary.

The Huskies rank fourth nationally in passing yards allowed at 123 YPG, third in Defensive Passing Success rate and 15th in Pass Coverage grade. The Huskies were finally able to parlay their strength against the pass into turnovers with an interception last week along with two forced fumbles.

Washington’s run defense continues to be its Achilles heel, giving up 172.7 yards per game on the ground. Michigan torched them for 343 rushing yards, which skews that number a bit.

However, Washington’s defense ranks 76th in  rushing success rate and 96th in line yards.

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Cal vs. Washington Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cal and Washington match up statistically:

Cal Offense vs. Washington Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
5
76
Line Yards
2
96
Pass Success
77
3
Pass Blocking*
19
75
Big Play
21
47
Havoc**
4
88
Finishing Drives
46
28
*Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)
**Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

Washington Offense vs. Cal Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
54
79
Line Yards
43
90
Pass Success
53
77
Pass Blocking*
101
99
Big Play
56
113
Havoc**
64
96
Finishing Drives
107
38
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)
** Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
112
67
PFF Coverage
69
15
Middle 8
119
75
SP+ Special Teams
114
109
Plays per Minute
84
36
Rush Rate
46.8% (109)
43.6% (117)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.


Cal vs. Washington Betting Pick

The last three meetings in this series have gone under, including 12-10 and 20-19 games in the last two. However, there are a few reasons why this year’s matchup will go over.

Washington’s pass defense is strong, however, Cal has the offensive balance to keep Washington guessing. The Golden Bears can use their run game to attack Washington’s weak run defense and set up the passing game.

When Washington drops more defenders in the box to commit to the run, Chase Garbers will take advantage of the one-on-one opportunities he has in the passing game.

Additionally, Cal has a huge advantage in Havoc. The Golden Bears rank 4th in Havoc Allowed while Washington ranks 88th in creating Havoc.

When Washington has the ball, Morris will have opportunities to exploit this Cal secondary with his receiving core back close to full strength. The Huskies should be able to hit on several explosive passing plays in this one.

Washington also ranks 36th in plays per minute and its pace should help the total as well.

The total opened up at 44.5 and has slowly crept up throughout the week. I am locking in over 46 on DraftKings and would play it up to 49.5.

Pick: Over 46 (-110) DraftKings 

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