College Football Odds & Picks for Louisville vs. Florida State: High-Scoring Affair Expected

College Football Odds & Picks for Louisville vs. Florida State: High-Scoring Affair Expected article feature image
Credit:

Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Malik Cunningham

  • Florida State hosts Louisville in Tallahassee as the Cardinals open ACC play.
  • The Seminoles are 0-3 to start the new campaign, while the Cardinals are coming off a comeback win over UCF.
  • Shawn Burns previews this matchup and offers up his best possible wager.

Louisville vs. Florida State Odds

Louisville Odds -1 (-110)
Florida State Odds +1 (-110)
Moneyline -120 / +100
Over/Under 61 (-110 / -110)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Perception can change quickly in the world of college football.

Just two weeks ago, Florida State battled Notre Dame and lost by a field goal in overtime. The Seminoles looked like they had turned the corner under second-year head coach Mike Norvell.

The ‘Noles then proceeded to lose an embarrassing game to Jacksonville State and were soundly defeated by Wake Forest.

On the other hand, Louisville was drilled by Ole Miss on Labor Day weekend in front of a national audience.

Since then, the Cardinals have won two straight games, including last week’s upset over UCF, which was one of the more exciting games of the season thus far.

The Cardinals are now red hot and heading towards a potential bowl berth, while Florida State is falling further into mediocrity.

Louisville had a decisive win over the Seminoles last season at home, 48-16, but historically the Cards haven’t played well in Tallahassee. Florida State has won 11 out of 13 times, including a 35-24 win in 2019.


Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville Offense

Scott Satterfield is an offensive-minded head coach that relies heavily on his quarterback Malik Cunningham to create positive plays in the run and pass game.

Cunningham already has six rushing touchdowns and has nine total this season. He’s a gifted player and the offense needs him to create plays, but he’s already carried the ball 42 times and it’s imperative that the Cardinals find other playmakers to take the pressure off their signal-caller.

Running back Jalen Mitchell is one of those players. He’s had back-to-back productive games carrying the football.

If Louisville can establish the run, it will open up its passing attack. Also, the Florida State secondary has been susceptible to the big play this season.


Louisville Defense

When evaluating the Louisville defense, it’s important to note that the unit has faced two of the top offensive teams in the country in Ole Miss and UCF. However, it’s still hard to overlook the number of points and yards they’ve given up.

Against FBS opponents they’ve allowed 39 points per game and seven yards per play. The Cardinals’ rush defense has allowed over five yards per rush and 200 yards per game.

In last season’s win over Florida State, the Cardinals rolled to an easy victory, but they allowed 265 yards rushing and over six yards per carry. They also lost the time of possession battle by over eight minutes.

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Florida State Seminoles

Florida State Offense

Mike Norvell and the Seminoles’ offense has unraveled since the close loss to Notre Dame, mainly due to inconsistent play by the offensive line and the quarterback position.

McKenzie Milton and Jordan Travis have alternated playing time with limited success. Milton is the more accurate quarterback and Travis is the more athletic player who can create plays with his legs. Both have been inconsistent, which has hampered the passing game.

FSU is a run-first offense and the rushing attack has been a bright spot early in the season. The Seminoles average 185 yards per game and 4.9 yards per rush.

Last week against Wake Forest, the self-inflicted mistakes by the offense sabotaged any chance of a conference win. Florida State turned the ball over six times, with Milton contributing four of them himself. The Seminoles now lead the country in turnovers with 10.


Florida State Defense

The Florida State defense is led by the front seven and they have only allowed three yards per rushing attempt. Wake Forest was able to rush for 225 yards last week, but still averaged less than four yards per rush.

Defensive end Jermaine Johnson — who transferred from Georgia — has been one of the elite players in the country. He had 10 tackles last week and leads the nation in sacks with 4.5 and has seven tackles for loss. He’s a legitimate prospect who will be playing on Sundays.

The secondary has been a mess and teams are having their way with the talented but young group. The defense has already allowed six touchdowns of 20+ yards from scrimmage, including the disastrous defensive breakdown that cost them the Jacksonville State game.

Against FBS competition, they’ve allowed 38 points per game and quarterbacks are completing over 72% of their passes and 312 yards passing per contest.

They haven’t played a dual-threat quarterback with the ability of Malik Cunningham this season. He had his way with the Seminoles a year ago.


Louisville vs. Florida State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Florida State match up statistically:

Louisville Offense vs. Florida State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
71
45
Line Yards
36
58
Pass Success
49
66
Pass Blocking**
12
35
Big Play
87
55
Havoc
34
52
Finishing Drives
4
82
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Florida State Offense vs. Louisville Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
82
118
Line Yards
25
119
Pass Success
50
61
Pass Blocking**
53
105
Big Play
64
129
Havoc
124
115
Finishing Drives
71
111
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
111
11
PFF Coverage
53
64
Middle 8
31
75
SP+ Special Teams
41
34
Plays per Minute
86
19
Rush Rate
52.5% (79)
58.2% (46)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Pick

I don’t see a ton of value in picking a side in this game, so I’m zeroing in on the total instead.

After diving into the matchup analysis, both offenses will have distinct advantages against the opposing defenses.

Florida State plays up-tempo — which means more plays from scrimmage — and the numbers indicate both teams have played poor red-zone defense.

Cunningham presents major challenges for the Seminoles’ defense, and Florida State has the skill position players to create scoring opportunities against the Louisville defense.

All signs point to a high-scoring afternoon in Tallahassee.

Pick: Over 61.5

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