College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Miami (OH) vs. Army: How to Bet Saturday’s Spread (Sept. 25)
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Isaiah Alston.
- The Miami (OH) RedHawks and Army Black Knights hit the field for a college football matchup on Saturday.
- Miami (OH) has struggled to defend the run, which could be a problem against Army's triple option.
- Check out Darin Gardner's full betting guide below, including odds, picks, and predictions based on his analysis.
Miami (OH) vs. Army Odds
|Miami (OH) Odds||+7.5 (-105)|
|Army Odds||-7.5 (-115)|
|Moneyline||+240 / -305|
|Over/Under||48 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS Sports Network|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.|
Army has been rolling early on in 2021 and will look to keep it going as it welcomes Miami (Ohio) to West Point on Saturday.
Army’s triple-option attack isn’t usually associated with hightotals, but the Black Knights have racked up 43, 38, and 52 points to start the season.
There’s no secret on how they’ll look to attack this Miami (OH) defense, considering the Black Knights have a ratio of 201 rushes to just 13 pass attempts.
On the other side, Miami (OH) enters the game sitting at 1-2 after a tough start to the season consisting of games vs. Cincinnati and Minnesota.
The Cincinnati game was very forgettable for the RedHawks, but they managed to hang around until the fourth quarter in the next week against Minnesota. They finally got the tune-up game they needed last week, though, as they beat Long Island University, 42-7.
Do the RedHawks have what it takes to slow down this Black Knights ground attack, or will Army keep on cruising in its third straight home game?
Miami (OH) vs. Army Betting Preview
Miami (OH) Offense
With bottom-15 rankings in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate, the RedHawks offense has nowhere to go but up during the remainder of the season.
This was a tough offense to project going into the year, as the RedHawks played just three games in 2020.
The early performance in 2021 hasn’t provided much reason for optimism. The offense had a horrendous 23% Success Rate against Cincinnati, including just a 17% Success Rate through the air, as quarterback Brett Gabbert missed the game to injury.
It improved to a degree against Minnesota after Gabbert returned — and hit some explosive plays through the air — but he still completed less than 50% of his passes.
Gabbert had a 57.8 PFF passing grade against the Gophers and followed that up with a 61.0 passing grade against Long Island.
He impressed in a tiny sample of games last year, but he’ll need to improve after his early performances in 2021.
Miami (OH) Defense
This unit got punched in the mouth against Cincinnati, as the Bearcats’ 0.88 Expected Points Added Per Play was easily the highest mark of any team in Week 1.
The defense had a remarkable turnaround the next week, though, holding Minnesota to a measly 4.6 yards per play and just a 41% Success Rate.
Minnesota was still very effective at Finishing Drives when it had the chance — which is why it got to 31 points — but this was still an impressive performance overall from the RedHawks.
Miami (OH) has a very productive player at linebacker in Ivan Pace Jr., who currently ranks sixth in the country in PFF grade at the position. He was a big factor in the RedHawks’ good outing against Minnesota, with two tackles for loss, a QB hurry, five defensive stops, and nine tackles, per PFF.
He’ll be needed against this efficient Army running game.
There’s no secret as to what Army wants to do on offense, but up to this point, nobody has been able to stop it.
The Black Knights are a top-20 rushing unit in terms of both Success Rate and Expected Points Added. They’re also averaging more than 300 yards per game on the ground.
After three games, the Black Knights already have four players with over 100 rushing yards. Quarterback Christian Anderson leads the group in carries and yards, but Tyrell Robinson has been the most explosive, as he’s averaged 13.6 yards per carry so far.
Army has only thrown 13 passes in three games, but the efficiency has been ridiculous when it does decide to go to the air. The Black Knights have completed 11 of those 13 throws, for 21.7 yards per attempt and four touchdowns.
Early on in the season, the running game’s efficiency has opened up the opportunity for huge plays through the air.
Army has let off the gas on defense in its past two games while playing with big leads, so its defensive numbers do look worse than they should at this point.
The Black Knights allowed 21 points to Western Kentucky in the fourth quarter after establishing a 35-14 lead and then allowed some big plays to UConn after coming out of halftime with a 42-0 lead.
Although you’d like them to keep dominating throughout the game, this defense is probably better than what the raw metrics would suggest right now.
Miami (OH) vs. Army Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Army match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Army Defense
Army Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Pace of Play / Other
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
When Army has the ball, it’s obviously going to come down to how well Miami (OH) can defend the triple option.
The Cincinnati game was a major red flag in regards to this run defense, as the Bearcats gashed the RedHawks for 9.4 yards per carry and a very high Rushing Success Rate of 61%.
As you can see above, the RedHawks come into this game ranked outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Line Yards. Against this defense, I expect Army’s offense to continue to roll for a fourth straight week.
On the other side, Army will be looking to exploit a pass-blocking unit that somehow graded at 0.5 out of 100 against Cincinnati, per PFF, and 42.1 against Minnesota. In those two games, Miami (OH) allowed 32 total pressures combined.
Army’s pass rush isn’t a world-beater, but it has gotten home multiple times in all of its games.
Miami (OH) vs. Army Betting Pick
This was a quick play for me when Army opened as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
Those 7’s quickly turned to 7.5’s. It hit 8 on Monday morning and made its way to 9,but now sits at 8.5 across the board.
Personally, I still see value on Army at this price in a game I project at just over 12. Miami (OH) has an exploitable run defense, as well as an offense with plenty of question marks heading into Week 4.
Pick: Army -8.5
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