Missouri vs Vanderbilt Betting Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under (Oct. 30)
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor Bazelak.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 62.5 -105o / -115u | -720 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 62.5 -105o / -115u | +500 |
The last two winless teams in SEC play square off Saturday when Missouri travels to Nashville to face Vanderbilt.
Clark Lea is in his first season as head coach of the Commodores as he starts a massive rebuild. Vanderbilt made a bowl game in 2018, but the program fell apart quickly and it only has five wins since that season.
Missouri qualified for a bowl game last season and had quality wins against LSU, Kentucky and Arkansas. Things haven't gone as smoothly this year. The Tigers still don't have a win against a Power Five opponent and they haven't defeated a team with a winning record.
Missouri is a 16-point favorite and is one of just two teams (Clemson) left in the country that has yet to win a game against the spread.
Vanderbilt is 2-6 ATS and it is looking for some form of revenge after getting destroyed by Missouri, 41-0, last season.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri Offense
The Tigers have been great offensively this season, averaging over 34 points per game and almost 450 yards of total offense.
Quarterback Connor Bazelak has been solid with 1,920 yards passing, but has struggled over the past five games with three touchdowns and six interceptions.
Running back Tyler Badie has been the best player on the Mizzou offense and is one of the top backs in the conference. He averages over 100 yards on the ground and has 13 total scores, but his top performances have been against Central Michigan and North Texas.
Missouri plays up-tempo and is 28th in the country in plays per minute. If it gets rolling early, Vanderbilt will have trouble keeping up.
Missouri Defense
It's hard to fathom how poor the Tigers defense has been. They are 126th in total defense, 129th in rushing defense, 129th in yards per rush and 125th in third-down defensive efficiency.
Against FBS competition, they have allowed 43 points per game and an astounding 339 yards on the ground.
Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz brought in former NFL head coach Steve Wilks as his defensive coordinator and the players haven't played well in the new scheme.
It's hard to pinpoint whether it's a scheme issue or a talent problem, but regardless it's been a gigantic failure, especially on the ground.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt Offense
The Commodores have been equally as poor on offense as Missouri has been on defense. They have the worst scoring offense in the country at 13 points per game.
They are 124th in Rushing Success Rate, 108th in Passing Success Rate and 122nd in Finishing Drives. The offense has only rushed for four touchdowns all season and last week against Mississippi State they ran for nine yards and were 1-for-11 on third down.
Quarterback Ken Seals has missed the last past two games with an injury and there is an outside chance that he plays Saturday.
If Seals is out, dual-threat quarterback Mike Wright will make his third start of the season. Wright has potential, but like most young quarterbacks, he struggles with consistency.
If Vanderbilt can establish any semblance of a rushing attack, it will open up its passing attack.
Vanderbilt Defense
Much like its offense, the Vanderbilt defense has struggled all season no matter the opponent. The Commodores have allowed over 35 points per game and 458 total yards a game. They also rank 119th in yards per play allowed.
The defense will need to be at its best against Missouri, which is 19th in the country in Passing Success Rate.
The Commodores have shown the ability to create turnovers — they are 33rd in the nation with 12 turnovers, including 10 interceptions. But if that comes down to earth, they're in big trouble.
Vanderbilt has intercepted at least two passes in four straight games. Bazelak has already thrown seven interceptions this season, so this may be a way for Vanderbilt to stay competitive Saturday.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 118 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 29 | 116 | |
| Big Play | 37 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 111 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 128 |  |
| Line Yards | 125 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 100 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 115 | 42 | |
| Big Play | 118 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 123 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 104 | 103 |
| Coverage | 90 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 117 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 1 | 118 |
| Plays per Minute | 28 | 73 |
| Rush Rate | 43.% (122) | 48.9% (108) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Betting Pick
Here is what we know about this matchup.
This game features two of the worst defenses in the nation and a Missouri offense that runs an up-tempo system and has a top-25 scoring offense. That leaves us with this question: what can we expect from the Vanderbilt offense?
Normally I would say very little, but I believe Vanderbilt can move the ball and put up some points on the Tigers. Against Connecticut — a team that is similar to Missouri statistically on defense — the Commodores had over 400 yards of offense and scored 30 points.
There may be rain and wind in the forecast, but if the weather holds up, look for the Missouri offense to do the heavy lifting and get a little help from Vanderbilt to push this game over the total of 63.
Pick: Over 63
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