Old Dominion vs. UTEP Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target Saturday Night’s Total (October 2)

Old Dominion vs. UTEP Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target Saturday Night’s Total (October 2) article feature image
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  • Old Dominion and UTEP will take the field in college football action on Saturday night.
  • The Miners enter as near-touchdown favorites, but Matt Wispe sees betting value on the total.
  • Check out Wispe's full betting preview, featuring odds, picks, and predictions, below.

Old Dominion vs. UTEP Odds

Old Dominion Odds +6 (-113)
UTEP Odds -6 (-108)
Moneyline +190 / -245
Over/Under 48.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

In a matchup of two teams ranked in the bottom 20 of SP+, only one team can come away with a loss.

Old Dominion enters this game following a heartbreaking defeat against Buffalo. UTEP comes into this matchup after a comeback win over New Mexico.

Despite its 1-3 record, Old Dominion has been a decent side to back. It’s 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 on totals. UTEP sits at 2-2 ATS and 2-2 on totals.

The weather couldn’t be much better for this one with no rain or significant winds forecasted during the game and temperatures expected to be in the 70s.


Old Dominion vs. UTEP Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
9 p.m. ET
ESPN+

Old Dominion Monarchs

Old Dominion Offense

The Monarchs have averaged 27 points per game and 4.8 yards per play. Their 24.3 seconds per play is an above-average pace despite running the ball on 56% of plays. They have a 45.1% Success Rate and have scored 4.18 points per opportunity.

The Monarchs rank sixth-worst in offensive SP+.

Quarterback D.J. Mack Jr. is completing 51.4% of his passes for just 5.0 yards per attempt. He has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3:4.

The Monarchs have a Passing Success Rate of 39% and they’ve allowed Havoc on 33% of plays.

Mack’s biggest contributions are as a runner with five touchdowns on 50 carries. He, along with a stable of running backs, have averaged 194.8 rushing yards per game with an average of 4.5 yards per carry.

That translates to a Rushing Success Rate of 50.4% for the Monarchs.

The offensive line has generated 3.49 Line Yards per attempt and have only allowed a Stuff Rate of 11.6%.


Old Dominion Defense

The Monarchs have allowed 32.2 points per game, including 35+ points in all of their FBS matchups, and 4.8 yards per play.

They’ve held opponents to just a 39% Success Rate, but they’ve struggled to get opponents off the field.

Opponents have averaged 5.62 points per opportunity.

Foes have also completed 63% of their pass attempts and have averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt. They’ve allowed a Passing Success Rate of 44.2%, but they’ve limited explosiveness. Opponents are averaging 2.5 passes over 20 yards per game.

The Monarchs have yet to force an interception and have just eight passes defended.

The run defense is a relative strength.

Old Dominion has allowed just 3.5 yards per carry and 139 yards per game. Its opponents have a 35.5% Rushing Success Rate.

Its defensive line allows 3.06 Line Yards and only has a 10.9% Stuff Rate.

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UTEP Miners

UTEP Offense

UTEP plays at a methodical, inefficient pace on offense.

They’re averaging 30.2 seconds per play, which ranks as the seventh slowest, nationally. They have a Success Rate of 35.1% and are averaging just 3.33 points per opportunity. They’ve limited Havoc with a 16.3% Havoc rate.

Despite passing on just over 40% of their offensive plays, the Miners are averaging 239.3 passing yards per game.

Gavin Hardison is completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 10.3 yards per attempt. The Miners have a Passing Ruccess Rate of 42.2% and pass for 3.25 passes over 20 yards per game.

Hardison’s biggest concern is his 6:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Miners are averaging 164 rushing yards per game on 41.5 rush attempts per game. They’ve averaged 3.96 rushing yards per attempt and have a 30.1% Rushing Success Rate.

Their offensive line hasn’t helped the cause with 2.64 Line Yards per attempt and a 22% stuff rate.


Miners Defense

Defense has been the strength for UTEP. The Miners have allowed 24.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. They’ve held opponents to a 35.2% Success Rate and 3.5 points per opportunity.

They’ve created Havoc on 17.1% of plays

Their strength starts along the defensive line. They’ve allowed just 2.9 Line Yards per attempt and have forced a 19.4% stuff rate. They’ve averaged 6.0 tackles for loss per game and have held opponents to 3.5 yards per rush.

They have a 37% Rushing Success Rate allowed.

The Miners have held opponents to a 33.3% Passing Success Rate. They’ve allowed 3.25 20+ yard passing plays per game. Within their 17% Havoc rate is their 15 passes defended and two interceptions.

Opposing QBs have been held to just a 48.7% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per pass attempt.


Old Dominion vs. UTEP Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and UTEP match up statistically:

Old Dominion Offense vs. UTEP Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 33 54
Line Yards 16 57
Pass Success 82 48
Pass Blocking** 62 49
Big Play 118 83
Havoc 49
Finishing Drives 26 69
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UTEP Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 125 33
Line Yards 102 99
Pass Success 18 90
Pass Blocking** 61 117
Big Play 82 50
Havoc 91
Finishing Drives 94 120
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 119 95
PFF Coverage 114 130
Middle 8 94 114
SP+ Special Teams 85 26
Plays per Minute 49 123
Rush Rate 56.2% (58) 62.9% (23)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Old Dominion has a clear advantage against UTEP’s run defense, but should struggle in the passing game. UTEP, meanwhile, appears to have an advantage in the passing game and will likely struggle to run the ball.


Old Dominion vs. UTEP Betting Pick

UTEP is the public team with 89% of bets and 77% of the money. But I’m drawn more to the total.

Sharp action has come in on the under and that’s where I’m looking.

With UTEP’s defensive strengths and methodical pace on offense, this game will be a slow affair with limited scoring opportunities.

Pick: Under 47.5 or Better

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