App State vs Old Dominion Odds, Picks | Back the ‘Dog?

In a college game on NFL Network, Old Dominion and Appalachian State face each other in a Sun Belt Conference battle Saturday night.

The Monarchs return to action after their bye week and are 2-1 in the Sun Belt with wins over Southern Miss and Louisiana.

Meanwhile, the Mountaineers also had extended prep time after playing a midweek game against Coastal Carolina in Week 7, in which they lost and dropped to 3-3 on the year.

Every conference game is huge, and on a big platform like NFL Network, we should get the very best from both programs.

Appalachian State's season has been filled with late-game drama, as a play here or there could've swung it up to four wins.

The Mountaineers have won on a 54-yard field goal as time expired and lost three games that were decided by a final play with under 15 seconds left.

One key player has been quarterback Joey Aguilar, who comes into this game tied for the most passing touchdowns in the Sun Belt (14).

He's also in the top five for passing yards per game (255.0) and has gone over the 300-yard mark in each of the past two contests.

Aguilar will have to carry the load again if starting running back Nate Noel is still banged up with an injury.

Head coach Ricky Rahne’s team has matched its win total from last season. However, Rahne has an interesting decision to make moving forward.

Quarterback Grant Wilson replaced Jack Shields midway through the last game and led the Monarchs to a comeback win. Wilson started the first four games of the year before Shields took over in the previous two contests.

On the defensive side of the ball, there's no question who the leader is. Returning All-American Jason Henderson is having another great year at linebacker and leads the nation in tackles per game with 15.3.

He was named the Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Week after the win over USM, in which he recorded 17 tackles, including the tackle of the game when he stopped the Golden Eagles on fourth and goal to clinch the victory.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Old Dominion match up statistically:

Appalachian State Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	80	42
Line Yards	24	12
Pass Success	26	83
Havoc	22	77
Finishing Drives	107	25
Quality Drives	27	68

Old Dominion Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	82	118
Line Yards	74	126
Pass Success	131	37
Havoc	131	80
Finishing Drives	132	48
Quality Drives	127	72

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	67	14
PFF Coverage	37	73
Special Teams SP+	29	129
Middle 8	6	111
Seconds per Play	24.9 (31)	23.8 (15)
Rush Rate	54.3% (37)	58.9% (80)

I've bet on Old Dominion in each of its past two games and both bets cashed.

Simply put, I don’t believe the oddsmakers have caught up to ODU's improvement.

So, I’m going to be backing the Monarchs again here, and I would bet them to +4.5.

Appalachian State has played in a lot of close games this year and the same can be said for ODU. Old Dominion’s last five contests have all had a margin of seven points or less.

If you like trends, this program has been great after the bye under Rahne (2-0). ODU was the underdog in both of those contests, but it's a very small sample size.

There are also a couple of advantages I like for ODU. The Mountaineers have struggled defending the run and rank 118th in Rush Success Rate and 126th in Line Yards.

Meanwhile, I can’t trust the visitors to cover because they're outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives on offense.

It also won’t help that ODU is 25th in limiting opponents' points once they cross the 40-yard line.

If the Monarchs can chew up the clock with consistent gains on the ground, that should keep them in the game enough to cover this spread.