Ohio vs. Iowa State Odds & Picks: Expect Offenses to Shine in Nonconference Bout
Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Dekkers (Iowa State)
- The Iowa State Cyclones host the Ohio Bobcats in Ames for their Week 3 college football matchup.
- The Cyclones enter as double-digit favorites, but they'll need their offense to show up to cover.
- Cody Goggin thinks it will return and explains why with his top bet below.
Ohio vs. Iowa State Odds
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -112 | 47.5 -106o / -114u | +740 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -108 | 47.5 -106o / -114u | -1250 |
Both of these teams come into Week 3 after facing a tough Big Ten opponent.
Ohio was completely outmuscled by Penn State a week ago.
On the other side, Iowa State took on its in-state rival, Iowa, in a torrential downpour that ended 10-7.
Both teams face more favorable situations on the opposing side this week, and will look to get their offenses going.
Ohio Bobcats
Bobcats Offense
Ohio’s offense is the strongest part of its team. Against Penn State a week ago, the Bobcats struggled overall and only scored 10 points, but they did have a 53rd percentile Success Rate.
When playing a team closer to the same level in Florida Atlantic, they scored 41 points and had an 86th percentile Success Rate.
This is an offense that is very capable of putting points on the board if you let them. In 2021, the Bobcats ranked 48th in Success Rate on offense, driven by their rushing attack
Unfortunately, Penn State’s defense is on another planet talent-wise and was able to completely neutralize this Ohio offense.
Against Iowa State, the Bobcats may still struggle, but things won’t be nearly as hard as they were last weekend.
Bobcats Defense
I previewed Ohio last week and spoke about how poor its defense was a season ago. In 2021, the Bobcats ranked 111th in Defensive Success Rate and 125th in Success Rate against the pass. Florida Atlantic and Penn State had no issues taking advantage of this.
Penn State had a 65th percentile Success Rate against this defense, which undersells what it was able to. After getting out to an early lead, Penn State went into cruise control and was able to just go back to State College with a victory.
Iowa State’s offense is a little bit less talented than Penn State and likely won’t be quite as good, but this Ohio defense can still be easily exploited.
Iowa State Cyclones
Cyclones Offense
If you saw anything about Iowa State last weekend, you would think that its offense is atrocious. It took a 99-yard drive that took almost an entire quarter for the Cyclones to score a touchdown against Iowa.
I think that this speaks more to how strong the Iowa defense is though, rather than the Iowa State offense.
Despite the poor offensive output, the Clones did still have a 32nd percentile Success Rate and weren’t completely terrible. They did have a couple of drives where they were able to move the ball before they ended in turnovers or a field goal.
Against FCS opponent SEMO in Week 1, Iowa State had an 87th percentile Success Rate. This isn’t surprising, as SEMO is a pretty average FCS team.
This will be the first game where we may truly learn what this Iowa State offense looks like without Brock Purdy and Breece Hall leading it.
Cyclones Defense
Not much can be learned from last week’s slog fest in the rain against Iowa. The Cyclones' defense looked great in that situation of course, but who wouldn’t?
In Week 1 against SEMO, Iowa State allowed a 58th percentile Success Rate on defense. This isn’t shocking, as Iowa State returns only three starters on defense from a season ago and will need some time to gain experience.
SP+ ranks this Iowa State defense at 38th in the country, but it’s probably the weakest unit that Matt Campbell has had in a few years.
Ohio vs. Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Iowa State match up statistically:
Ohio Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 93 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 59 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 12 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Iowa State Offense vs. Ohio Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 104 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 105 | 123 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 99 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 125 | 22 |
| PFF Coverage | 120 | 27 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 90 | 107 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (93) | 30.2 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 46.8% (94) | 52.7% (66) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ohio vs. Iowa State Betting Pick
I believe that this game should be able to hit the over. Both Ohio and Iowa State are fully capable of going over their respective team totals of 14.5 and 33.5.
In the matchup that includes both a bad defense and an inexperienced defense, I’ll take the two offenses to win out.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 51.5)
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