Oklahoma State vs TCU Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday’s Top-15 Big 12 College Football Game
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Oklahoma State vs TCU Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | +162 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
For the second week in a row, a pair of undefeated teams will square off in the Big 12 when Oklahoma State heads to TCU.
Both of these teams have their eyes set on the conference championship game. They have each won one Big 12 title, but it was before the championship game returned.
After going 11-1 in the regular season, the Cowboys came up a yard short in the Big 12 Championship, and likely the race for the College Football Playoff. But Mike Gundy’s squad has come back focused and started the year 5-0, with every single victory coming by at least 10 points.
It was a disappointing 2021 season for the Horned Frogs, whose 5-7 season resulted in the firing of longtime head coach Gary Patterson.
They brought in Texas native and former SMU head coach Sonny Dykes to help improve their in-state recruiting and rejuvenate the offense. Spoiler Alert: It’s working.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders has 37 career starts under his belt and has tossed 12 touchdowns with two interceptions this season. He's being relied on more this season than in the past with his 33.8 attempts per game and 278.8 yards per game both marking career highs.
He has some solid weapons on the outside, although leading receiver Braydon Johnson is questionable after leaving last week in concussion protocol.
Sanders has been asked to do more with his arm and legs because the run game has taken a step back. The Pokes sit just 70th in Success Rate on the ground and struggle to create explosiveness.
Defensively, the Cowboys were expected to take a big step back after losing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State following a Broyles Award nomination. They finished 2021 ranked seventh in the nation in Success Rate.
While they've fallen back to 47th, they still rank in the top 50 and have remained strong at generating Havoc. Pass rushers Tyler Lacy, Collin Oliver, Brock Martin and Ben Kopenski all get after the quarterback well and dial up the pressure.
TCU Horned Frogs
I mentioned above how Dykes was brought in to switch up the defensive-focused Horned Frogs to a more offense-first approach. Well, Dykes, along with offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, are leading a team that ranks 19th in Success Rate and second in the nation in explosiveness.
Max Duggan is completing 73.2% of his passes and shredding teams for 14 touchdowns with just one interception. He has the second-best quarterback rating in the country behind only Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.
Quentin Johnston proved last week he's a superstar, going for 206 yards and a touchdown on 14 catches.
QUENTIN JOHNSTON YOU DAWG!! 🐸
— Mike Ianniello (@Ianniello21) October 8, 2022
As good as Duggan has been, the run game is even more dangerous.
The Frogs rank second in the country, averaging 6.6 yards per carry with running backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado — as well as Duggan — each averaging more than six yards per carry. They lead the nation with 11 runs of 30-plus yards on the year.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs have pretty wild splits with how different they've been against the run versus the pass. TCU ranks 97th in Success Rate against the rush but 27th against the pass.
Cornerbacks Josh Newton and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson have each held opponents under a 50% completion rate.
Despite the struggles against explosiveness, The Horned Frogs do rank seventh in tackling.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and TCU match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs. TCU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 27 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 110 | 109 |  |
| Havoc | 29 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 93 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
TCU Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 49 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 102 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 85 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 54 | 49 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 15 | 94 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.0 (4) | 27.7 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 50.0% (86) | 53.0% (71) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU Betting Pick
While Oklahoma State is off to a 5-0 start and looks poised for another run to the Big 12 title game, is anybody that lives outside of Stillwater or doesn’t have "#GoPokes" in their Twitter bio actually buying them as a top-10 team?
Oklahoma State was outgained in three of its four FBS wins and ranks outside of the top 40 in Success Rate on both offense and defense. I’m sure even they would admit they're relying on Sanders more than they would like, and now he faces a secondary that's allowing just a 54% completion rate.
TCU has been great on a down-to-down basis against the pass this season. The area it's struggled in has been defending explosiveness, but that's not the strength of the Cowboys, who sit just 65th in the country in that area. Plus, it'll be even harder for them if Johnson doesn’t play.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State ranks 91st in the nation at preventing explosiveness, and oh boy, is that going to be a problem against this Horned Frogs team. TCU picks up big plays better than any team in the country.
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The Cowboys are strong up front, but any time these TCU running backs get to the second level, it’s going to be off to the races. Expect the Frogs to have another big day on the ground, while their secondary limits Sanders and this passing attack.
TCU is a perfect 5-0 against the spread as oddsmakers continue to undervalue it. I’ll keep riding with the Frogs until they catch up.
Pick: TCU -3.5 (Play to -5.5)
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