Syracuse vs North Carolina Odds & Prediction: How to Bet Saturday’s Over/Under

I'm extremely high on the North Carolina Tar Heels this season. In fact, my first three bets in my ACC preview were

1. UNC Over 8 Wins
2. UNC to Win ACC Championship (was +1000, now +750)
3. Drake Maye to Win Heisman Trophy (was +1800, now +4000)

While Maye's Heisman odds may have decreased, I'm extremely jazzed about how the Tar Heels have performed this season. Florida State is now the heavy favorite to win the ACC, but in my opinion, no team in the ACC is truly elite, and this conference is wide open.

For that reason, if you wanted to take a bet that's a good value in my opinion, think about UNC to win the ACC Championship. We have them as touchdown favorites the rest of the way, with the exceptions being Miami (pick'em) and Clemson (touchdown underdog). However, I like the Tar Heels in both of those matchups.

Syracuse has quietly been having a very good season, owning a 4-1 record coming into this matchup with its lone loss coming against a good Clemson team.

The Orange will be looking to get back on track and maybe backdoor their way into the ACC Championship. One thing is for certain with head coach Dino Barbers — you're always going to see Syracuse get up for big games.

This should be a fun matchup to watch in the great state of North Carolina.

The Orange are coming into this game with an average offense, but their defense is a completely different story. Syracuse ranks 15th in Points Per Opportunity, 10th in Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Havoc.

Rocky Long has taken a squad that was good last year — Syracuse ranked third in the ACC in total defense — and transformed it into a unit that has been elite through the first four games of the season.

However, opponents must be taken into account. It has to be noted that the first time the Orange played a decent team, Clemson put up 31 on them. Tyler Brown ran wild in the secondary, recording 151 receiving yards on 237 total passing yards from Cade Klubnik.

Syracuse must be better against the pass on Saturday if it wants to pull off the upset, as I believe Maye and North Carolina are significantly more potent than Clemson.

Looking at the Tar Heels offense this season, I wouldn't expect any one receiver to go off for 70% of their team's total passing yards. Maye has been spreading the ball around this season, and the leading wide receiver on North Carolina, J.J. Jones has just roughly 25% of North Carolina's total receiving yards.

Maye's Heisman odds may have gone down, but he's turning in a hell of a season. He was the odds-on favorite to be QB2 in the NFL Draft behind Caleb Williams preseason, and he has not relinquished that hold (watch the Raiders fall in love with Bo Nix and make me eat those words).

He has the 10th-best PFF passing grade so far this season, but he's been playing a little conservatively. He's put up an impressive turnover-worthy play rate (1.5%), but he isn't pushing the ball down the field as much, and his big-time throw rate has suffered a bit (7.2%).

This type of offensive approach actually plays right into Syracuse's strengths. I think the Orange will do a good job of keeping North Carolina's receivers in front of them and make the Tar Heels beat them with death by 1,000 check-downs and a solid run game.

I have no doubt UNC can do it, but I'm not expecting an offensive explosion.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Syracuse and North Carolina match up statistically:

Syracuse Offense vs. North Carolina Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	65	98
Line Yards	90	105
Pass Success	47	10
Havoc	78	34
Finishing Drives	37	17
Quality Drives	36	64

North Carolina Offense vs. Syracuse Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	54	14
Line Yards	93	18
Pass Success	41	5
Havoc	23	8
Finishing Drives	94	14
Quality Drives	13	10

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	5	45
PFF Coverage	8	28
Special Teams SP+	33	37
Middle 8	30	15
Seconds per Play	23.4 (9)	25.3 (37)
Rush Rate	55.9% (41)	54.8% (73)

I think this will be a slightly more boring matchup, with North Carolina taking longer drives down the field.

Both of these defenses excel at Points per Opportunity Allowed, basically holding teams to field goals instead of touchdowns, so expect quite a few boots through the uprights on Saturday.