Toledo vs. San Diego State Odds & Picks: Rockets to Cover Short Spread?

Toledo vs. San Diego State Odds & Picks: Rockets to Cover Short Spread? article feature image

Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jerjuan Newton & Devin Maddox (Toledo)

  • The Toledo Rockets head to California to face the San Diego State Aztecs in a nonconference showdown in Week 4.
  • The Rockets, who are one of the best teams in the MAC, enter as short favorites over the Aztecs.
  • Check out Anthony Dabbundo's full betting guide and top pick for Toledo vs. San Diego State below.

Toledo vs. San Diego State Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
3:30 p.m. ET
Toledo Odds
-105o / -115u
San Diego State Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

San Diego State has played two games against FBS opponents, and those opponents have outscored the Aztecs 73-27.

The addition of Braxton Burmeister to the quarterback room was supposed to rescue the SDSU passing attack, but he hasn't done much to help the cause through three games.

The Aztecs will hope to improve offensively at home against a MAC team on Saturday, but they'll have to do so without star running back Chance Bell.

Toledo looked functional offensively last week against Ohio State, but the Rockets didn't have the athleticism to keep up with the Buckeyes for four quarters.

However, the Rockets' offense did show legitimate explosive ability and looks much more competent offensively than the Aztecs have looked to this point in the season.

Toledo Rockets

Toledo may have lost and wasn't really competitive with Ohio State last week, but there were plenty of positives from the Rockets' offense.

Toledo had three scoring drives of 75 yards in the game, including two explosive drives. The first drive of the game included a 19-yard run from quarterback Dequan Finn and a 50-yard touchdown from Finn to Thomas Zsiros.

Toledo fell behind 28-7 after that, but the Rockets then had their most impressive drive of the night — a 4:29, 15-play touchdown drive that was capped off by another play of 20+ yards.

The Buckeyes' defense had been stellar prior to last Saturday, and Toledo had three long scoring drives in the first 2.5 quarters.

Toledo's offense has been quite successful on the ground and ranks 42nd in Rushing Success Rate.

In past seasons, that wouldn't matter in this matchup because SDSU typically boasts an elite defensive front.

But that was then.

The Aztecs' defense has regressed in a big way along the line. Combine that with offensive injuries, and the Aztecs are vulnerable at home on Saturday.

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs rank 112th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 74th in Defensive Line Yards and 88th in Finishing Drives. If you read that stat line out for past SDSU teams, it would sound impossibly bad.

This Aztecs team hasn't been able to stop the run, which is surprising since it's the one thing this program has recently excelled at.

SDSU has allowed 139 rushing yards per game, which is almost as many as Burmeister has thrown for in the entire season. He did get hurt last game and left after getting poked in the eye, but he'll be back this week.

Unfortunately for the Aztecs, Bell won't be back this week. San Diego State has gone to a running-back-by-committee approach, and the results have been mediocre at best.

This is a San Diego State offense that had serious trouble moving the ball against Idaho State — a poor FCS team that was catching 34 points — but managed to cover the spread, as SDSU won 38-7.

The Aztecs were uncompetitive against Arizona, and then lost by 28 to Cam Rising and Utah.

The Aztecs rank 131st in Passing Success Rate, which makes them one of the worst passing units in the country. There is almost no talent in the receiving group.

Burmeister has averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt, has made no Big Time Throws and has a measly 62.1 passing grade, per PFF.

There's no quick fix or easy way to picture how the Aztecs will keep up with a decently explosive Toledo offense.

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Toledo vs. San Diego State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and San Diego State match up statistically:

Toledo Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
Rush Success4276
Line Yards5074
Pass Success7378
Pass Blocking**12255
Finishing Drives2188
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

San Diego State Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Rush Success5128
Line Yards9092
Pass Success131108
Pass Blocking**6574
Finishing Drives116126
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling37122
PFF Coverage8588
SP+ Special Teams3313
Seconds per Play24.6 (32)28.2 (99)
Rush Rate59.8% (31)65.4% (11)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Toledo vs. San Diego State Betting Pick

Toledo opened as an underdog, but the Rockets did not remain one for long. The market is clearly sour on this version of the Aztecs, which has looked extremely unimpressive thus far.

The Rockets have value until they fully cross the key number of three, then I'd no longer bet them.

I would not lay more than a field goal, but this Aztecs team is not the same as the one of the past that dominated with its defensive line and on special teams.

The Rockets should have plenty of success moving the ball offensively, and San Diego State doesn't have the offense to keep pace for four full quarters.

Pick: Toledo -3 or better

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