UCLA vs. Washington College Football Odds, Picks, Prediction: Bruins Will Score On Huskies

UCLA vs. Washington Odds

The UCLA Bruins travel to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies on Saturday night.

The Bruins and Huskies came into the season as two contenders for the Pac-12 North and South divisions, but neither team controls their destiny to the Pac-12 championship following key losses to divisional rivals Arizona State and Oregon State.

The Bruins bounced back from their loss to the Sun Devils with a 34-16 win at Arizona last week. The win was closer than the final score would indicate as the Bruins led just 24-16 early in the fourth quarter, but Arizona quarterback Jordan McCloud suffered an injury (and is sadly now out for the season) and the Wildcats never had a chance afterwards.

Washington is coming off of a bye following its 27-24 loss at Oregon State. In its only other Pac-12 matchup (three weeks ago), it beat California 31-24 in overtime in Seattle.

The winner of this matchup will keep their hopes alive to reach the Pac-12 championship in Las Vegas while the loser will have their Pac-12 title hopes significantly dashed.

Which team will right the ship and emerge victorious?

Saturday, Oct. 16

8:30 p.m. ET

FOX

UCLA Bruins

UCLA Offense

If UCLA pulls the slight upset in Seattle, it will be because its running game leads them to the win.

The UCLA rushing offense is led by the three-headed monster of running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown, along with dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

After rushing for just 3.8 yards per carry against the Sun Devils when they failed to score in the second half, the Bruins bounced back as they rushed for 7.0 yards per carry against the Wildcats last week.

The UCLA running game has been elite this season as it ranks 16th in Rush Success Rate and 28th in Line Yards. The Bruins' success on the ground is imperative against a Washington defense that ranks 90th in Rush Success Rate and 114th in Line Yards.

If UCLA can establish the run, the Huskies’ elite back end, which ranks fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed and fifth in PFF Coverage, will have trouble stopping tight end Greg Dulcich and receiver Kyle Philips in play action.

UCLA Defense

UCLA needs to limit big plays and force Washington quarterback Dylan Morris to beat them through the air if it wants pull the upset on Saturday.

UCLA plays an aggressive style of defense in which it often leaves its secondary in one-on-one matchups. The Arizona State offense did a masterful job of exploiting them on cover zero blitzes and missed tackles made UCLA’s issues even worse.

The Bruins, who rank 73rd in PFF Tackling, need to tackle better than they have recently in order to keep the pressure on Morris and Washington.

The biggest strength of the Washington offense is the experienced offensive line, which ranks 43rd in Line Yards. This will be a strength-on-strength matchup against UCLA as the Bruins’ biggest defensive strength is that they rank 14th in Line Yards allowed.

If UCLA wins this matchup, it will win on Saturday and it could win big.

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Washington Huskies

Washington Offense

The Washington offense gets a big boost this week with tight end Cade Otton expected back after missing the games against Cal and Oregon State due to COVID-19 protocols.

He is the best pass catcher on the team and he has the best chance to take advantage of UCLA’s aggressive defense in man coverage.

The key for the Washington offense, as aforementioned, will be to run the ball efficiently. Morris simply isn’t good enough to out-duel Thomson-Robinson, so the Washington offense may need to get creative against the UCLA defense.

Running back Richard Newton, who started the first three games of the season, will also return from injury this week to join Sean McGrew and Kamari Pleasant in the backfield.

Washington Defense

Washington needs to stop the run against the UCLA offense to win and cover. The Huskies are always elite in the back end on defense, but the front seven hasn’t done a good enough job against the run recently.

The Huskies also need to cause Havoc defensively and improve upon their 87th rank in Havoc created this season.

The good (great) news for the Huskies is that returning All-Pac-12 outside linebacker Zion Tupuola-Fetui is practicing, although coach Jimmy Lake has refused to disclose whether he will be available or not this week.

Tupuola-Fetui suffered an Achilles injury in the offseason and has yet to play a down this year after being one of the best edge rushers in the country last season.

UCLA vs. Washington Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCLA and Washington match up statistically:

UCLA Offense vs. Washington Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	16	90
Line Yards	28	114
Pass Success	43	4
Pass Blocking**	68	68
Big Play	76	38
Havoc	23	87
Finishing Drives	88	53
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Washington Offense vs. UCLA Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	71	71
Line Yards	43	14
Pass Success	72	88
Pass Blocking**	105	87
Big Play	49	66
Havoc	58	80
Finishing Drives	80	24
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	73	36
Coverage	95	5
Middle 8	44	56
SP+ Special Teams	20	114
Plays per Minute	70	52
Rush Rate	65.5% (12)	46.8% (113)

UCLA vs. Washington Betting Pick

At first glance, I wanted to bet on UCLA to win as short road underdogs given its ability to run the ball and Washington’s inability to stop the run.

While I still lean toward UCLA to win, I want to know if Tupuola-Fetui will be available or not before placing my bet on the Bruins — he is that big of a game-changer, especially with as strong of a secondary as the Huskies have behind him.

Instead, I like the value of betting the Over on UCLA’s point total of 26.5 at DraftKings (-130). While Tupuola-Fetui’s presence will help the Washington defense create more Havoc, it may also help expedite the game and create more possessions.

Nonetheless, Tupuola-Fetui will be a significant boost for the Washington pass rush, but he won’t solve their problems against the run. Expect the Bruins to gash the Huskies on the ground as they score at least four touchdowns.

The Bruins have scored at least 34 points in every game except against Arizona State and even then, they scored 23 first-half points but failed to score in the second half as they continuously went for fourth downs instead of taking points as they were down multiple possessions.

Take UCLA to score over 26.5 points at -130 and bet this over up to 27.5 points at -140 or better.

Pick: UCLA Team Total Over 26.5 (-130)