Utah vs. Colorado Odds & Picks: Bet Rival Utes & Buffaloes to Clear the Depressed Over/Under
Colorado vs. Utah
- The Utah Utes will travel to Boulder on Saturday in an attempt to end the Colorado Buffaloes' undefeated season.
- Despite the Buffs' impressive performances, Collin Wilson sees the Utes covering as short underdogs.
- Check out Wilson's full betting analysis with updated odds for this Pac-12 matchup below.
Utah vs. Colorado Odds
|Utah Odds||-2 [BET NOW]|
|Colorado Odds||+2 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-125 / +102 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||47.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
Both Colorado and Utah have represented the South Division in the Pac-12 Championship game in three of the last four years.
Sadly, the Buffaloes might finish their season undefeated and not participate in the title game. Colorado has had two games canceled due to COVID-19, one of which was against undefeated USC. But Colorado still has plenty to play for in finishing 4-0 in head coach Karl Dorrell’s opening season.
As for Utah, head coach Kyle Whittingham dealt with a roster that was last in returning production on the 2020 season. The Utes obtained their first win against Oregon State last week, limiting the Beavers to zero explosive drives.
The days of Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss are over, but that has made room for Ty Jordan. The freshman put up 167 yards against Oregon State, averaging 6.2 yards per rush, and now averages 4.3 yards after contact.
Freshmen showing out tonight!
Ty Jordan with the shift, the burst, and off he goes to set up another Utah TD!
— Utah Athletics (@utahathletics) November 29, 2020
While Jordan has led Utah to a top-25 ranking in Rushing Success Rate, the quarterback play of South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley has not been as successful. In three games, the Utes have just two passes that have exceeded 30 yards. Not all of this can be blamed on Bentley, as the offensive line ranks 121st in grading, per Pro Football Focus. In 94 dropbacks, Utah has allowed pressure in over half of the attempts at 48.
The Buffaloes’ hire of Dorrell was considered an odd pick. An NFL assistant for the majority of the past 13 years, Dorrell had not been a head coach since 2007, when he was at UCLA.
Colorado now fields a defense that is fourth overall in Success Rate and fifth in defensive Havoc. Defensive coordinator Tyson Summers had bounced around his career from Georgia, UAB and was fired as the Georgia Southern head coach in 2017 after an 0-6 start.
Colorado had one of the worst returning production ranks on offense to start 2020. The loss of Laviska Shenault should have limited the highlights of the offense, but senior Sam Noyer has had moments of brilliance.
Yes, that's our QB.
— Colorado Buffaloes Football (@CUBuffsFootball) December 6, 2020
Noyer is a true dual-threat quarterback with 148 rushing yards coming on designed plays and just 39 coming from scrambles. Colorado is a run-first team with a 65% rushing ratio, which is good news for an offense that ranks top-20 in Power Success Rate.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There’s a chance that we haven’t seen Utah’s best play after breaking in new players and dealing with COVID-19 for much of the season.
There was a breakout against Oregon State, with a 60% Success Rate in standard downs for an average of 5.84 yards per attempt. Sustainable drives were lacking for the Utes, but they notched 54% in two-plus first down drives against the Beavers, a category in which the national average is 41%.
CLICK THE DROPDOWN ARROW TO VIEW COLLIN’S MATCHUP MATRIX
Will the Utah defense have enough to deal with the dual-threat capabilities of Noyer?
Oregon State backup Chance Nolan had 13 rushing attempts for 36 yards, but a long of 28 yards deserves a deeper look. In three designed runs, Nolan went for 27 yards with four avoided tackles. This suggests that Noyer should have plenty of success in designed quarterback runs.
As for the market, the threat of wind, snow and fog may make this game a beautiful watch on Saturday afternoon. These are two rush-heavy offenses, so the weather should not affect either team’s ability to get into scoring position.
The fog in the Oregon-Oregon State game led to 79 total points and should have no bearing on two squads with explosive running options. The Action Network Pace Report makes this game 53, while our Power Ratings have Utah favored.
The market should continue to steam the total down with the combination of weather and Colorado’s defensive numbers. Grab an over ticket and expect Utah to challenge the Buffaloes’ undefeated season.
Picks: Over 49.5 or better | Utah +2 or better.