Western Michigan vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks | Points Galore in Starkville
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Will Rogers (Mississippi State)
Western Michigan vs Mississippi State Odds
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
Western Michigan hasn't played an SEC opponent on the road in over 20 years. That streak will come to an end on Saturday when it heads to Starkville to battle the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
This will be the first-ever meeting between the programs.
Western Michigan comes in at 2-3 following a 42-24 victory over Ball State.
Mississippi State is also 2-3, but it will be looking for a "get-right game" as it steps out of conference play this week. The Bulldogs have lost their first three conference games while allowing at least 37 points in each of them.
This week, Mississippi State may be the team doing most of the scoring, as the Broncos are three-touchdown favorites at home.
Western Michigan will come into this matchup with a lot of momentum after setting a new season-high in points against Ball State.
Quarterback Treyson Bourguet had a career day with 328 yards passing and three touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named MAC West Offensive Player of the Week.
All of his touchdowns went to wide receiver Anthony Sambucci, who enjoyed a career day himself. He now leads the team with 207 receiving yards and four touchdown receptions.
Last week was a breakout performance for a Western Michigan passing attack that ranks 127th in Success Rate this season.
The Broncos have enjoyed much more success on the ground, as they rank 25th in Rushing Explosiveness. The majority of those explosive runs have come from running back Jalen Buckley, who has gains of 38, 39, 68 and 75 yards this season.
The redshirt freshman ranks seventh in the FBS with 557 rushing yards and 10th with five rushing touchdowns.
Western Michigan's offense wasn't the only unit to enjoy a breakout performance last week. Defensively, the Broncos set season-highs with six sacks and 10 tackles for loss. The unit is 37th in Havoc and tied for 23rd nationally in sacks with 15, led by linebacker Donald Willis' and defensive lineman Mason Nelson with three apiece.
However, that is pretty much the only thing Western Michigan has managed to do well defensively this season. The Broncos rank 104th in yards allowed and 119th in yards per play allowed.
They also rank outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Quality Drives. The Broncos' defense could be in for a long afternoon against Mississippi State.
Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett was promoted to head coach following the sudden passing of the late Mike Leach. Arnett has made the curious decision to transition to a more run-based offense, likely to help out his defense. However, it resulted in taking the ball out of the hands of his best player.
Quarterback Will Rogers has completed 71% of his passes for over 8,000 yards 71 touchdowns over the last two seasons. However, Rogers has attempted less than 30 passes in four of his first five games this season. The lone exception was against South Carolina and he threw for 487 yards, by the way.
This week, Rogers will be looking to shake off a three interception performance against Alabama. He will be going against a far more forgiving unit than the elite defense of the Crimson Tide. Rogers will likely look to target Lideatrick Griffin heavily this week. The senior leads the team with 25 receptions for 409 yards and three touchdowns.
The beneficiary of Mississippi State's new offensive approach has been running back Jo'Quavious Marks. The senior leads the team with 420 rushing yards and four touchdowns. With a big day on the ground, he can set his new single-season high in rushing yards (582) just halfway through the season.
Last week, Mississippi State's defense had to overcome some challenges as it only had seven defensive linemen available. It allowed 193 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Jalen Milroe also averaged 13.7 yards per attempt.
This week, Mississippi State is making a few changes to its depth chart. Sophomore Deonte Anderson will get the start at defensive end over Jordan Davis, and Donterry Russell will be the new starter at linebacker. Anderson had a half sack against LSU while Russell had five tackles and 1.5 sacks against Alabama.
Mississippi State has the talent advantage this week, but with Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss remaining on the schedule, it will have to improve its defense to go bowling this season.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Michigan and Mississippi State match up statistically:
Western Michigan Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 129 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 57 | 131 | |
| Quality Drives | 101 | 115 |
Mississippi State Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 118 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 109 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 29 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 22 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 123 | 9 |
| Middle 8 | 118 | 113 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (38) | 27.0 (70) |
| Rush Rate | 58.5% (22) | 51.1% (91) |
Western Michigan vs Mississippi State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Western Michigan ranks 125th in scoring defense this season, allowing 35.8 points per game. Against the two Power Five opponents it's faced, the Broncos allowed 48 points to Syracuse and 41 points to Iowa.
Despite Mississippi State's change in offensive philosophy, it should have no trouble moving the ball against Western Michigan.
However, the defense is not exactly Mississippi State's strong suit either, so WMU should be able to put up points here. The Broncos are averaging 36.5 points per game over its last two games. It may have its quarterback situation settled after Bourguet's performance last week.
Additionally, both of these teams rank outside of the top 100 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. Drives past the 40-yard line will likely result in touchdowns instead of field goals in this game.
At 56.5, I have to back the over here. The over has hit in the last three games for each team.
I expect that number to be four after Saturday afternoon. New to FanDuel? Get started today with Action Network'sFanDuel promo code for bonus bets!
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