College Football Odds & Weather: Cold, Wind Provides Iowa vs. Minnesota Betting Edge (Friday, Nov. 13)
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College Football Odds: Iowa vs. Minnesota
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
If you’ve happened to land on a post such as this one in this past, you know we at The Action Network put some significant stock into the weather when finding betting edges. It’s not for no reason, either. It’s because history tells us there’s value.
In fact, one of our most profitable PRO betting systems comes simply from taking unders in college football games played in winds of at least 13 mph — they’ve hit at a 57% rate over the past 15 years on a sample of about 1,000 games.
And while tonight’s Big Ten Friday appetizer doesn’t meet that mark, its forecast still calls for attention from bettors looking for an historical edge through Mother Nature.
Note: Odds, forecast as of 12 p.m. ET.
College Football Weather: Iowa vs. Minnesota
A 10-11 mph wind is expected throughout tonight’s game in Minneapolis, making the low-30s temperature all the more unpleasant.
That cold-wind combo has also been one that’s slowed down offenses in the past.
Here’s how unders have fared in games since 2005 with double-digit wind speeds at various temperatures:
- 50 degrees or more: 927-821-23 (53.0%)
- Less than 50: 294-226-10 (56.5%)
- Less than 40: 100-75-4 (57.1%)
- Less than 35: 58-34-4 (63.0%)
The theory makes sense, too. As these games tend to increase passing difficulty, big plays become less common. And with the ball remaining on the ground more often as a result, the clock runs more continuously, reducing the overall number of drives, and therefore, scores.
Tonight’s total has risen throughout the week from its opening number of 55. But perhaps a result of the forecast, the most recent move has been a downward one, from 59 to 58.