Welcome to Championship Weekend.
There's only so much college football left, and I want to take full advantage, with another series of long-shot exotic parlays.
We hit a 13-1 ticket on the Miami-Pitt game last week, so let's run it back with another set of college football parlays and exotics.
Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan Parlay
This game has rock fight written all over it.
Miami (OH) is relying on a freshman who was its third quarterback for much of the season to lead them on Saturday. Tommy Gotkowski is making his second career start against the best defense in the conference.
Western Michigan ranks in the top 35 nationally in Success Rate allowed against both the run and the pass. The Broncos can make life uncomfortable in the pocket as well, evidenced by their 30th-ranked pass rush.
You also can't consistently drive the ball on them. The Broncos finished the regular season 25th nationally in Quality Drives Allowed.
But can we expect Western Michigan to pull away, even if its defense is putting the RedHawks in a box?
The Broncos’ offense is built on the run game, with quarterback Broc Lowry doing two key things: picking up critical first downs with his legs and punching in touchdowns on the ground. He’s also been a fantastic game manager when it comes to protecting the football.
But explosivity is not on the WMU menu (122nd nationally in Big Play Creation).
Run game, defense, limited turnovers — it’s time for a Roulette strategy.
The likelihood of this being a close game played in the teens and lower 20s is high, and sportsbooks are offering big payouts on exact outcome bets.
I’m taking two units and splitting them up into 10 separate bets. All of them require a close win for Western Michigan.
MAC Championship Exact Score Picks:
- 17-13 (110-1)
- 17-14 (55-1)
- 20-13 (100-1)
- 20-14 (100-1)
- 20-17 (45-1)
- 21-10 (130-1)
- 21-13 (130-1)
- 21-14 (80-1)
- 21-17 (90-1)
- 24-14 (70-1)
Odds via DraftKings
Georgia vs Alabama Parlay
SEC Championship Parlay:
- Under 48.5
- Ty Simpson Under 268.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- Alabama First Drive Result: Punt
- Georgia First Drive Result: Punt
- Georgia Total Offense: 300+ Yards
Parlay Odds: +1521 (FanDuel)
A lot of pre-packaged same-game parlays center on offensive output. Lots of points, lots of yards, multiple touchdowns for a specific player.
But it’s rare to see an SGP bundle offered for the opposite. That’s why I’m putting together a “defensive clinic” SGP in the SEC Title Game.
Both of these defenses bring something special to the table.
Alabama’s pass defense has improved steadily throughout the season. The Tide now ranks fifth nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades, 12th in Pass Success Rate allowed, and 10th in Pass EPA allowed.
Georgia’s calling card has been its work in the trenches. No one can really run on the Dawgs, who rank 11th in Rush Success Rate allowed, 14th in Defensive Line Yards, and seemingly never give up the big play (10th).
In the two teams' first meeting, there were only 45 points scored, seven of which came after halftime.
These two head coaches know how to adjust and turn the screws in the second half.
I have faith in both teams punting on their opening drives for different reasons.
Mike Bobo, Georgia’s offensive coordinator, is one of the sport's worst scripters. The Bulldogs have only scored an opening touchdown once in their last four games, which includes games against 5-7 Mississippi State and 1-11 Charlotte.
They finished 47th nationally in first-quarter scoring behind juggernauts like FIU and Cal.
On the flip side of the coin, Georgia’s defense is excellent when it first hits the field. The Bulldogs’ defense has forced five opening-drive punts this season.
Alabama has also been poor on opening drives. In the Tide’s last four games against FBS competition, they’ve opened Punt-Punt-Downs-Punt.
I’ve opted to include Simpson’s combo in the hopes that his rushing total ends in the negative due to sack yardage. Simpson has been sacked three-plus times ing four games this season.
Georgia’s pass rush has been beyond anemic in 2025 (123rd nationally), but the Dawgs have figured some things out along the way this season.
Increased cross-dogs and overloaded edge blitzes led to increased pressure and three sacks against Texas. They also generated seven tackles for loss against Georgia Tech and Haynes King, one of the best running quarterbacks in the sport.
After Alabama kept Simpson clean in the first meeting, I expect to see some exotic pressures get home in a few key moments.
The final piece is for Georgia to hit 300 total yards of offense, which would be required for the Dawgs to win this football game.
I like Georgia in the game, and this number is 116 yards lower than its per-game season average. When you factor in Georgia’s first performance against Alabama (357 yards), I consider this to be nothing more than a parlay sweetener.
Duke vs Virginia Parlay
ACC Championship Parlay:
- Over 79.5
- Darian Mensah 300+ Pass Yards
- J'Mari Taylor 2+ Touchdowns
Parlay Odds: +1720 (FanDuel)
Duke has been playing in shootouts since the calendar turned to November. In the Blue Devils' past five games, the scoreboard has been lit up, with an average of 71 points per contest.
When the Duke offensive line protects Mensah, he’s a big-play triggerman. Duke finished 11th in chunk play creation, with 31 plays of 30-plus yards from scrimmage (third-most in the ACC), and Mensah enters this ACC title bout as the 17th-best passer in the country from a QBR perspective (77.8).
For this parlay to cash, I need him bombing away in catch-up mode. He’s used to that role, given Duke’s passing volume down the stretch. Mensah has been called upon to throw the ball 37 times per game since mid-October.
This whole thing only works if Virginia can set the pace early.
The good news is that Virginia led the ACC in first-quarter scoring with 8.5 points per game. And this Duke defense is more than willing to lay down for the Wahoos.
The Blue Devil secondary never recovered from the loss of Terry Moore at safety. You could make an argument that no secondary was worse in all of college football in the big play department, and Chandler Morris is primed to take advantage of that.
He left meat on the bone the last time these two programs faced off, throwing for 300-plus yards, but turning it over twice.
Game flow also allowed Virginia to take its foot off the accelerator. Had he been testing the Duke secondary for four quarters, 400 yards through the air, and 50 points were on the table.
The final piece of this puzzle is J’Mari Taylor.
The senior back is built like a fire hydrant (5-foot-9, 205 lbs.) with a nose for the end zone (14 Rushing touchdowns). He scored multiple touchdowns in four games this fall, and Duke has failed to stop bellcow backs like Clemson’s Adam Randall and Cal’s Kendrick Raphael from finding paydirt more than once.
Taylor crashed into the end zone twice in their first meeting while racking up 158 all-purpose yards. The Cavs have no answer for him once he gets rolling downhill.
At any number north of 15-to-1, this is worth a home run swing because both teams are comfortable in shootouts and neither will pack it in early.
