It’s the biggest weekend of the college football season.
Week 5 has monstrous matchups all Saturday, starting at noon.
Our staff of college football betting experts has spent the week prepping for this day, and they’ve created all sorts of elite content for you to consume as you spend your morning placing wagers.
Here are our favorite college football picks and NCAAF best bets for the noon games on Saturday, Sept. 27.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Card: Noon Best Bet
In 2025, Notre Dame and Arkansas have both demonstrated their inability to defend against the rush. A look at the run concepts suggests that any player carrying the ball could have a big day.
Arkansas runs man-blocking schemes for Mike Washington and Taylen Green more than any other concept, an area in which Notre Dame's defense has a 35% Success Rate. Washington and Green have eclipsed 60 rushing yards in every Razorback game.
Conversely, Notre Dame runs a balance of inside and outside zone read concepts. The Arkansas defensive line has been putrid against inside zone concepts.
Both Price and Love get zone read rushing attempts, with Price being the more explosive of the two so far.
Action Network's betting power ratings project this game at Notre Dame -4 with a total of 63.5, providing no value to the current market.
Arkansas has the better offense and special teams. The Hogs could be overlooked by the Irish after their loss to Memphis, and Fayetteville is expected to draw one of the largest crowds in Donald W. Reynolds Stadium history.
Any Arkansas pregame wager would require a live hedge on the Irish as these offenses march up and down the field on the ground.
Read Collin's entire Notre Dame-Arkansas breakdown and more in his Week 5 card:
Pick: Arkansas +4.5 (-110, bet365)
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Stuckey's Spots: Noon Best Bet
By Stuckey
In a matchup of two run-heavy offenses, Bowling Green has the edge along the offensive line with a veteran unit that boasts nearly 8,000 career FBS snaps.
That group should pave the way for the Bowling Green rushing attack to stay ahead of the chains against a very poor Ohio run defense that has also recently lost a starting linebacker (who will be missed in coverage here) and key defensive tackle (who was one of its best against the run to date) to injury.
While Drew Pyne isn't anything to write home about at quarterback, he does have plenty of experience and won't be asked to do much other than complete short passes (5.0 aDOT in 2025) to keep the sticks moving and clock bleeding.
That formula can work against this Ohio front seven.
These two teams have both played top-50 schedules so far (Ohio slightly more difficult), and BG actually has a slightly better yards-per-play margin.
Ohio has the inferior offensive line, overall defense and special teams to boot.
The Falcons did recently lose stud linebacker Dorian Pringle to a season-ending injury, but redshirt freshman Caden Marshall — who came with Eddie George from Tennessee State, so he knows the defense — actually played very well in his season debut.
He will at least work next to a highly underrated backer in tackling machine Gideon Lampron.
The outside cornerbacks are what scare me the most for Bowling Green, with a redshirt freshman and a Tennessee State transfer. Still, Ohio doesn't really have much juice on the outside at wide receiver, especially after losing Max Rodarte to an injury last game.
I actually really like Bowling Green's slot corner, MJ Cannon, who will have the toughest task of the day in slowing down Chase Hendricks, who lines up exclusively in the all-important slot position in Ohio's offensive attack.
The Bobcats do have an edge at the quarterback position with Parker Navarro. He's an absolute dog and will certainly make plays with his legs and through the air off-script behind a shaky offensive line. He's the ace up Ohio's sleeve.
However, the Falcons, who play with extremely heavy personnel, can sustain long drives behind their veteran offensive line against the extremely undersized front of an Ohio defense that has troubling metrics, injuries, and some likely overdue late-down regression.
I happily paid to make Ohio cover this double-digit spread in a game where possessions should come at a premium. Give me the points.
Check out all of Stuckey's Situational Spots for Week 5 here:
Pick: Bowling Green +10 or Better
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Ianniello's Group of 5 Card: Noon Best Bet
Pop Quiz: Which qualified quarterback (min. 100 snaps) has the highest Pro Football Focus Offensive Grade this season?
That's right, it's Drew Mestemaker.
The redshirt freshman walk-on burst onto the scene in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl against Texas State last season, throwing for 393 yards and two touchdowns while adding 55 yards and a score on the ground.
He will look to replicate those numbers against another Sun Belt opponent on Saturday.
Eric Morris once again has an offense that shreds. The Mean Green rank 20th nationally in Success Rate and have been lethal through the air.
Mestemaker has tossed 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions this year. He spreads the ball out really well to a deep pass-catching corps. Four North Texas receivers average over 40 yards receiving per game, making it impossible for defenses to key in on one target.
The running game shares the wealth as well, with Makenzie McGill and Caleb Hawkins mainly splitting carries. Both of them are averaging over 5.4 yards per carry while combining for nine rushing touchdowns.
South Alabama ranks 113th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. The Jaguars' defense has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this year, including multiple rushing scores in every game. Opponents are averaging 196.3 yards per game on the ground.
The Jaguars have also really struggled to prevent Finishing Drives, ranking 123rd nationally. Meanwhile, North Texas ranks 26th in Finishing Drives on offense.
The Mean Green should be able to move the ball plenty on this defense and convert those drives into points.
The Mean Green defense has improved significantly from last year, but they do not create Havoc and have already allowed over 30 points to Western Michigan and Army. Both teams ripped them up on the ground, and Kentrel Bullock should have success on the ground for the Jaguars.
Both of these teams are already 3-1 to the Over, and when they faced off last season, the final score was 52-38.
Expect to see fireworks again here on Saturday.
Check out all of Ianniello's Group of 5 picks for Week 5 below:
Pick: Over 63 (-110, bet365)
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Ziefel's Player Props: Noon Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
The Blue Devils have a massive edge on the ground in this game.
While they are typically a pass-heavy offense, Syracuse's secondary is its strength defensively, so we should see more rushing attempts from the Blue Devils.
A good chunk of those attempts will go to running back Anderson Castle, who has appeared to surpass Jaquez Moore on the depth chart as he racked up a season-high 92 yards on 12 carries last week against NC State.
Castle's explosiveness with his carries has earned him more touches, and this rushing yards total does not accurately reflect his new role in a great matchup.
Pick: Anderson Castle Over 39.5 Rush Yards (-115, Caesars)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System For Noon
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In college football, contrarian underdogs thrive in situations where the betting line moves strongly against them.
When spreads shift by several points from open to close, it often reflects heavy public or sharp money fading the dog, inflating the line and creating hidden value on the moneyline.
In games where the spread is moderate to large (between four and 13), the underdogs are often overlooked but capable of outright wins.
The inflated perception of the favorite can lead to mispriced odds, and the contrarian angle looks to capitalize on those rare moments when the market has overcorrected.
Not only has this system been profitable over the past two decades, but it’s also produced a 25% ROI this season alone (9-15, 38% win rate).
While nobody is excited to back Illinois after its 53-point loss to Indiana last week, I think we’re all overreacting to a one-game sample size.
USC has played nobody so far, and this will be the first real test for what looks to be an elite offense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some struggles on Saturday.
Want more PRO betting systems? Get an Action PRO subscription today:
Pick: Illinois ML (+195, bet365)
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Duck's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Week 5? It's always wise to see what our guy Duck is betting on in the Action Network App!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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