College Football Picks, Early Bets for Week 9: Iowa State vs. Baylor & New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht.
We're in the heart of the college football season with just about a month of the regular season left, which means we now have a decent amount of data on all 133 FBS teams.
There aren't too many big games on the docket this weekend, but there's still some value on the board, and it starts on Tuesday night with New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -132 |
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| New Mexico State -0.9 | New Mexico State -2 | New Mexico State -5.0 |
New Mexico State has been the star of these weeknight games, winning three in a row over FIU, Sam Houston and UTEP all while allowing a total of just 37 points.
If a team is going to face New Mexico State, it better be prepared to stop the run. The Aggies run the ball on 54% of their offensive plays and average 6.1 yards per carry as a team.
The reason they've been so successful is because the offensive line is dominating up front. New Mexico State ranks top-five in Offensive Line Yards and 30th in Stuff Rate Allowed, which puts it inside the top 10 in EPA/Rush.
Quarterback Diego Pavia has really improved as a passer in his second full season as the starter. He's a big-play machine who averages 9.5 yards per attempt with 14 big-time throws on the season.
He's also a very potent runner, leading the team with 90 carries while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Pavia has the ability to break off runs like this one against UTEP last week.
WHAT A RUN FROM DIEGO PAVIA TO EXTEND THE NEW MEXICO STATE LEAD 🔥 pic.twitter.com/bh5Qf4Twff
— Action Network Colleges (@ActionColleges) October 19, 2023
Louisiana Tech has an outstanding secondary that's allowing only 6.5 yards per attempt while ranking inside the top 25 in EPA/Pass Allowed.
However, it's really struggled to stop the run. The Bulldogs are allowing 5.0 yards per carry and rank outside the top 100 in both rushing explosiveness allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed. So, New Mexico State should be able to run the ball at will on Tuesday night.
At the time of writing, the quarterback situation at Louisiana Tech is a bit murky.
Jack Turner started the game against Middle Tennessee, but after an interception on the goal line to open the second half, he was benched for Hank Bachmeier, who made his return to the field after missing three games due to injury.
As you can see below, there really isn't much of a difference between the two quarterbacks, as both of them have struggled in terms of consistency.
Image via Sports Info Solutions.
That's a problem because the Bulldogs are throwing the ball on over 55% of their offensive plays, and that's how teams can attack this New Mexico State squad that ranks outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
One of the bigger advantages New Mexico State will have in this game is its ability to finish off scoring drives. NMSU ranks 52nd in Finishing Drives, while Louisiana Tech sits outside the top 100 defensively.
All three projection models have the Aggies projected as favorites on the road in Ruston, so I'd grab them now at +2.5 before they close as a favorite.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -114 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Iowa State vs. Baylor Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Iowa State -0.5 | Iowa State -4.6 | Iowa State -5.0 |
Baylor should not be favored in this game.
The Bears may have beaten Cincinnati on Saturday, but that marked the fifth straight game against FBS opponents in which they've been outgained.
The offense has been a rollercoaster. BU has played two Big 12 games at home against Texas and Texas Tech, only to score a combined 20 points. But on the road against UCF and Cincinnati, it put up over 30 in each game.
The advanced data will say the Bears struggle to find consistency. They're outside the top 100 in Success Rate, EPA/Play and Finishing Drives, which is not a combination you want to have as an offense.
To be fair to Baylor, starting quarterback Blake Shapen did miss some time after getting injured in Week 1 against Texas State, but he hasn't really been that effective since his return against UCF on Sept. 30.
The Bears are throwing the ball on about 58% of their offensive plays, so their effectiveness really comes down Shapen. He's averaging 8.5 yards per attempt but has a really low completion percentage at 61.1%.
He's really been at his best when in play-action.
Image via PFF.
Here's the thing, though — play-action is really only successful when a team can run the ball consistently, which Baylor hasn't been able to do. The Bears are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry against FBS opponents and rank outside the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
Iowa State's defense has been solid this season, ranking inside the top 30 in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass Allowed, so it should find a way to shut down this below-average offense.
Even though Iowa State's offense hasn't been that efficient from a Success Rate standpoint, it's broken off quite a few big plays. The Cyclones rank 41st nationally in explosiveness, while Baylor sits outside the top 100 defensively.
Baylor has been a nightmare defensively this season, allowing 6.3 yards per play while ranking outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush, EPA/Pass Allowed and Finishing Drives Allowed.
All three projection models have Iowa State as a favorite, so I like the value on the Cyclones at +2.
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