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Week 10 of the college football season is here. With six Top 25 matchups on the docket, we have plenty of high-octane action this week.
But before we get to the ranked-on-ranked action, my Week 10 card begins on Friday night, when the TCU Horned Frogs head west to Tucson to take on the No. 22 Arizona Wildcats.
When the sun comes up on Saturday, we'll turn our attention to the Beehive State, where the No. 9 BYU Cougars take on the No. 3 Utah Utes in a top-10 edition of the Holy War.
Next, we'll go to Death Valley, where the No. 14 LSU Tigers host the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide in a top-15 SEC showdown that will have major College Football Playoff implications.
To close it all out, we have two huge games: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Ole Miss in another high-stakes SEC matchup and No. 1 Miami vs. No. 11 Notre Dame in another game with plenty of postseason relevance.
With so much to get to, let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 10 games on Saturday, November 7.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Week 10's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
TCU vs. Arizona Pick
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU continues to struggle on offense despite a Week 9 victory over Kansas. Head coach Sonny Dykes fired offensive line coach A.J. Ricker, who had been with the program since 2022.
The result against the Jayhawks was average, with a 48% Success Rate in 27 rushing attempts and Kansas producing just two tackles for loss. TCU has allowed 72 tackles for loss this season, a primary reason for its rank of 127th in Havoc allowed.
Quarterback Jaden Craig has navigated 106 pressures across 315 dropbacks, managing just five turnover-worthy plays in a crowded pocket all season.
On the other side, coordinator Andy Avalos has called a successful defense all season, ranking among the top defenses nationally in limiting EPA and opponent Success Rate.
A Defensive Quality Drives mark in the top 10 indicates opponents are struggling to create methodical drives against the Horned Frogs.
Koron Hayward and Paul Oyewale lead a top-20 pass rush, combining for 38 pressures and eight sacks this season. The heavy zone coverage often relies on Quarters and Cover 3, which helps limit opponents' explosives.
Arizona Wildcats
A loss at Texas Tech in Week 9 might have ended Arizona's chance at competing for the Big 12 Championship.
The Wildcats have two conference losses to the Red Raiders and BYU, who both sit ahead of Arizona in the conference standings.
The offensive rush attack has left much to be desired, with sagging Line Yards and Stuff Rate numbers, ranking 113th in rush EPA.
The offense's heaviest output comes from quarterback Noah Fifita's arm in the passing game. The super senior has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career and the fewest drops in five years.
Six players have logged at least 20 targets. Wide receiver Isaiah Mizell boasts an elite 3.7 yards per route run.
The 2-4-5 defense from coordinator Danny Gonzales has been lights-out against the pass, ranking top-15 in Passing Success Rate allowed and Passing EPA allowed.
The light box has kept Arizona from having a pass rush in the top 100, but defending explosive plays has created other areas of strength.
Arizona ranks among the best defenses nationally in limiting methodical and red-zone scores. The Wildcats have allowed only 36 opponent possessions to reach the red zone, a top-25 rate among FBS defenses for scoring opportunities inside the 20.
TCU vs Arizona Prediction
Neither TCU nor Arizona has had luck generating a ground attack. Inside zone read is the lead run concept for both offenses, but each opposing defense has the advantage in Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
The success of both offenses will come down to their quarterbacks. Craig will need a boost from a TCU offensive line that has struggled to protect the quarterback.
The good news for Craig is the lack of a pass rush from Arizona, but the bad news is the aggressive number of blitzes called by Gonzales. The Wildcats send blitzes on 57% of opponents' pass attempts, posting a top-10 mark among FBS defenses with 25 sacks.
There's no expectation that the Horned Frogs will protect Craig, as the offensive line has allowed 84 pressures over the past five Big 12 games.
The former Ivy League quarterback has a moderate jump in turnover-worthy play rate with six touchdowns to three interceptions against the blitz.
Fifita has been a different story with blitz this season, posting a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.6% in 117 dropbacks. Arizona has had mid-FBS success against quarters, but a high 57% mark against Cover 3.
The difference between the two offenses is when drives turn into scoring opportunities.
TCU has been one of the worst scoring teams in the first half this season, ranking 111th at 10.8 points per game through the first two quarters.
This is also a roster that will be playing a road game on a short week in its eighth consecutive week. Because of an overseas season opener, the Horned Frogs haven't had extra time to prepare since Week 2.
TCU has scored 34 total first-half points over its past five Big 12 games. Arizona has been quite the opposite, ranking 22nd in first-half scoring with an average of 19.5 per game.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for the Wildcats to be just a 6-point favorite, but TCU is on short rest after road travel in its eighth consecutive game.
The Horned Frogs are in desperate need of a bye week since the firing of their offensive line coach, as Craig continues to post a high pressure-to-sack ratio. Look for Arizona to jump out early with Fifita's arm.
Pick: Arizona 1H -5.5
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BYU vs. Utah Pick
BYU Cougars
There's good news out of the BYU camp, as starting running back LJ Martin is set to return for the Cougars. The back was projected highly in last year's NFL Draft before opting to return for one more season.
With Martin in the backfield, the Cougars should return as a lethal outside zone team, as BYU has a high Success Rate through 11 and 12 personnel thanks to quarterback Bear Bachmeier.
The sophomore signal-caller has an excellent 2026 resume, from 19 all-purpose touchdowns to forcing 19 missed tackles on rushing attempts.
Defensively, coordinator Kelly Poppinga has seen the BYU stop unit struggle against the run over the past month. Both Arizona State and UCF posted a minimum 63% Success Rate in rushing attempts, well ahead of the national average at 48%.
The Cougars rank 57th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, with Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate marks that have both fallen out of the top 50.
Tackling continues to be the biggest concern for BYU, with the Cougars earning a grade of only 133rd, per PFF. The Cougars have missed 48 tackles in the last three games against Notre Dame, UCF and Arizona State.
Utah Utes
An initial College Football Playoff ranking of third has the Utes flying high.
Quarterback Devon Dampier has generated the best numbers of his career at 18 big-time throws to just four turnover-worthy plays.
Running back Wayshawn Parker has been a perfect complement in the power, counter and zone-read offense. Parker and Dampier have combined for over 1,100 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns while forcing 63 missed tackles.
Head coach Morgan Scalley has seen a minimal drop in his defense with the handoff to coordinator Colton Swan. The nickel defense ranks top-25 in Success Rate allowed and top-15 in Defensive Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives.
The argument against Utah is its strength of schedule, currently residing at 83rd in FBS.
The Utes have a poor pass rush grade of 111th while falling to 91st in tackling.
Utah has been stingy in allowing methodical drives, but offenses that fall off schedule have frequently found explosive plays. Utah ranks 111th in passing down EPA allowed when opponents are off schedule.
BYU vs Utah Prediction
There's good reason to think scoring could begin early in the Holy War.
BYU executes its rushing attack through 11 and 12 personnel, but a two-tight-end set should be an advantage over Utah. The Cougars have run half of their outside zone attempts in 12 personnel, a concept that lowers the Utes' defensive efficiency by 14%.
The potential return of Martin would only benefit BYU on the offensive side of the ball, making the Big 12 availability report a must-watch in Week 10.
The same advantages exist for the Utah offense through power and outside zone run concepts, both run with 12 personnel. BYU has yet to face an offense that runs power with a heavy box, posting a mid-FBS Success Rate of 51% against a light box.
The biggest issue for both of these offenses is tackling at the second level. Bachmeier, Martin, Dampier and Parker are four of the most elusive rushers at their position, while both opposing defenses have shown serious inefficiencies when it comes to tackling.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Utah to be favored by 5 points, and alignment with the market leaves no value on the side.
However, these teams have been offensive powder kegs in the first half. Utah and BYU rank in the top 18 of first-half scoring offenses, posting 23.3 and 20 points in the opening half, respectively.
Considering neither defense has experience against run concepts using two tight ends, missed tackles will lead to plenty of explosives in the Holy War.
Pick: 1H Over 24.5
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Alabama vs. LSU Pick
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama will be fresh off a much-needed bye week, struggling through three straight games. The Crimson Tide battled through a tough home victory against Texas A&M in Week 8, breaking a two-game losing streak to Georgia and Tennessee.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer has played a top-10 strength of schedule against a number of Havoc-minded defenses.
Although the Tide have been explosive with quarterback Keelon Russell, defenses have feasted on a Havoc allowed ranking of 113th. The sophomore quarterback has faced pressure on 98-of-274 dropbacks this season.
The Alabama defense has been more successful against the run. Top-10 rankings in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards indicate few run concepts have worked against coordinator Kane Wommack's unit.
The efficiency against teams that run zone read is a modest 52%, but Alabama creates a negative EPA per play against opposing rush offenses.
The pass defense has been more troublesome, as Alabama ranks outside the top 100 in 40-yard passes allowed.
Even more worrisome is the red-zone efficiency, ranking 134th thanks to a defense that has allowed 26-of-27 opponent trips to end in a score.
LSU Tigers
LSU conquered any road demons in Week 8 before heading into a bye week. The Tigers never struggled in Jordan-Hare Stadium, beating Auburn on the road, 38-17.
LSU had lost both of its previous road games against Kentucky and Ole Miss, but the offense nearly eclipsed more than three yards per play against Auburn.
The offense continues to improve under head coach Lane Kiffin, who was tasked with building a team that was delivered straight from the transfer portal.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt has gone without an interception in two straight games. Familiarity is sinking in with targets on the field.
LSU collected nine drops from targets through the first three games but has posted only seven drops in the previous five games.
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker calls one of the most ferocious stop units in the nation, ranking top five in multiple categories, including Passing Success Rate, coverage, Defensive Quality Drives and Havoc.
Edges Jordan Ross and Princewill Umanmielen have posted 29 pressures and have combined for 18 sacks.
Linebackers TJ Dottery and Davhon Keys lead the team with 73 tackles, missing only eight on the season. The cornerback play has been elite with PJ Woodland and DJ Pickett combining to create nine pass breakups this season.
Six opponents on the schedule have scored 17 points or less, with Texas A&M and Mississippi State failing to score a touchdown.
Alabama vs LSU Prediction
Alabama has struggled to protect Russell all season, as nearly every opponent has generated double-digit pressures. An alarming number of 20 came against the Tennessee defense, a game where Russell was sacked at least four times.
Tide tackles Jayvin James and Jackson Lloyd have allowed 16 pressures this season, so Umanmielen and Ross will likely be successful in harassing Russell.
The Crimson Tide have been led by Russell's pass explosives this season, a tall task against an LSU defense that ranks second in Pass EPA allowed.
The Alabama defense should be a wash in stopping the LSU ground attack led by Dilin Jones, but red-zone opportunities should fall to Leavitt's legs.
The Arizona State transfer has had no trouble reaching the end zone, rushing for eight touchdowns this season.
Leavitt has nearly three times as many rush attempts behind man-assignment blocking, an area where the Alabama defense allows an explosive play on 15% of attempts.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings make LSU a favorite of -6, but with defensive advantages in creating Havoc, there's a clear signal on the Tigers.
More worrisome is the Crimson Tide defense in the red zone, allowing 26-of-27 opponent attempts to end in a score.
Look for Leavitt to have a successful day through the air and on the ground, while Baker's defense does enough to limit Russell's explosiveness.
Pick: LSU -5 or Better · Sam Leavitt Anytime TD (-140)
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Georgia vs. Ole Miss Pick
Georgia Bulldogs
Head coach Kirby Smart was seeking a get-healthy game for Georgia after a loss to Auburn. The Bulldogs executed against Florida, as the defense limited the Gators to no methodical or explosive drives.
Florida gained only half of the national average in available yards, was stuffed on over half of 24 rushing attempts and was limited to converting just 4-of-12 attempts on third down.
Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has a top-20 defense in nearly every category, including a mark of 19th in pass rush.
Georgia sends one of the lowest numbers of defenders on blitzes, typically utilizing just four defenders. The success of sending only four rushers allows at least seven other players to drop into coverage.
Offensively, quarterback Gunner Stockton rebounded from three turnovers against Auburn and didn't fumble or throw an interception against Florida.
Stockton has created just five turnover-worthy plays this season, all coming in two games against Alabama and Auburn.
Both the Crimson Tide and Tigers play a heavy amount of Cover 3, a concept Stockton has produced a modest 52% Success Rate against with a minimal negative EPA.
Georgia may not have issues pushing the ball downfield, as Ole Miss has mid-FBS success with quarters and a low 42% pivoting to Cover 3.
Ole Miss Rebels
The absence of star running back Kewan Lacy was not an issue for Ole Miss, who dominated Auburn in Week 9 with three rushing touchdowns.
Makhi Frazier continues to get more attempts with his 5.3 yards per carry, but Shekai Mills-Knight busted out in only his second appearance of the season. The sophomore accounted for a rushing touchdown with three gains over 10 yards and has a season total of 4.5 yards after first contact.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss also continued his Heisman campaign, adding another three touchdowns to an all-purpose total of 25 on the season.
Despite the low score, Auburn found a way to push the ball down the field on the Ole Miss defense. In 11 offensive possessions, the Tigers accumulated three explosive drives and four methodical drives while averaging 4.5 overall yards per play.
Where Ole Miss played the best defense was in the red zone, as four Auburn trips resulted in just a single touchdown. The Rebels have shown the ability to stop the rush against opponents this season, ranking top-20 in Stuff Rate.
Ole Miss continues to struggle in several defensive areas, from pass coverage to tackling and allowing explosives on passing downs.
Georgia vs Ole Miss Prediction
There are a number of reasons to believe the Ole Miss defense won't have success in stopping Georgia. The Rebels sit outside the top 100 in penalties and third-down defense, a massive issue for a unit that's 119th in passing down explosives allowed.
The best attribute of the Ole Miss defense comes against the run, but the Rebels have yet to face an inside zone attack that uses 12 personnel like Georgia.
Man blocking assignments have been led by running back Nate Frazier, who's fully healed from a rib injury and averaged 5.6 yards per carry against Auburn. Ole Miss has been putrid against man blocking with a low 43% Success Rate.
Containing Chambliss is priority No. 1 for Georgia. Schulmann called defense against Ole Miss twice last season, allowing 44 yards in scrambles. Georgia solved the Chambliss question in a playoff loss, keeping the Ole Miss quarterback from a single scramble. He totaled just 14 yards on designed run calls.
Chambliss was assisted by season highs in receiving from both Harrison Wallace III and De'Zhaun Stribling. Ellis Robinson IV has been a shutdown cornerback for the Bulldogs this season and is sure to draw the assignment against Deuce Alexander.
Keep tabs on Robinson after a knee injury against Florida, but Smart indicated the news was positive for the corner this week.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Georgia to be a 7.5-point favorite, well ahead of a market favoring the Bulldogs by just 3.5.
The Ole Miss defense will be tasked with facing run concepts using a two-tight-end set while overproducing season-average numbers on third downs.
Georgia looked healthy in a demolition of Florida after the bye week, resolving any lingering injury issues with Frazier and Stockton.
The biggest question is whether or not Chambliss will be allowed to generate first downs on scrambles while connecting downfield.
Georgia contained the Chambliss scrambles in the SEC Championship but must show why it's 11th overall in coverage to beat Ole Miss.
Pick: Georgia -3.5
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Miami vs. Notre Dame Pick
Miami Hurricanes
There might not be a better offense in college football than the Miami Hurricanes.
Heisman-contending quarterback Darian Mensah has been near flawless this season, posting a turnover-worthy play in just two games this season.
The former Duke and Tulane signal-caller stands at 25 touchdowns to just a single interception, a thriving ratio thanks to one of the most dangerous weapons in FBS, slot Malachi Toney.
The second-year receiver has 83 targets with more than 1,000 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.
However, Toney is dealing with an ankle injury, making his status for Saturday uncertain, according to ESPN's Pete Thamel.
The defense is where Miami has seen a struggle under coordinator Corey Hetherman. The Canes rank 132nd in tackle grading, per PFF, and an uncharacteristic 96th in generating Havoc.
The defensive line grades out as one of the best in creating a pass rush, but the back of the 4-2-5 has presented issues in pass coverage. Miami ranks 111th in coverage grading and 105th in passing down Success Rate allowed.
Although the Hurricanes are undefeated, covering efforts from Wake Forest, Florida State and Wake Forest have all come via the passing attack.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Although Notre Dame picked up a comfortable victory over Navy, the Irish struggled to find an offensive rhythm in the first half.
Head coach Marcus Freeman oversees an offense that's sixth in first-half scoring, as the Notre Dame offense woke up in the second half for 21 points.
Both Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton have been the primary contributors to a ground game that ranks top-15 in Success Rate. James has seen an increase in yardage over four straight games, logging more than 100 yards on nine carries against Navy.
The biggest Havoc-maker on the defense returned after an ejection during the BYU game. Edge Boubacar Traore should be well rested after missing parts of the last two games, entering Week 10 with 22 pressures on the season.
Defensive coordinator Chris Ash has produced one of the best rush-stopping units while ranking ninth in PFF coverage grading.
A heavy amount of Cover 1 hasn't exposed Notre Dame in the explosives department, as the Irish have allowed just six rushing attempts that exceeded 20 yards.
Miami vs Notre Dame Prediction
There's no expectation that Miami's defense will be able to stop Notre Dame's passing attack, led by quarterback CJ Carr.
The Hurricanes have struggled against ACC quarterbacks with low national rankings.
UNC's Billy Edwards Jr. and Florida State's Ashton Daniels combined for eight touchdowns against the Canes. Clemson's Tait Reynolds also exceeded his season high by a mile, posting 294 passing yards against Miami.
The issue for the Hurricanes comes in the middle of the defense, as teams have exploited the pass mid-range between the hash marks.
A number of Miami starters have bottom-P4 grades in coverage, including linebacker Mohamed Toure, cornerback Omar Thornton and a pair of safeties in Zechariah Poyser and JJ Dunnigan.
Carr should have success throwing over the middle, particularly to slot Jaden Greathouse. More than 50% of Greathouse's targets have come from 0-9 yards between the hashes.
The question remains whether the Notre Dame defense has the capability to stop a Miami offense that's the best in FBS in terms of Passing Success Rate.
The Irish should have success limiting running back Mark Fletcher Jr., as Notre Dame produces a negative EPA against teams using man, power and inside zone run concepts.
The key to the pass defense comes from the high safety position with Adon Shuler and Luke Talich. Notre Dame has shutdown cornerbacks, none better than Jayden Sanders and Leonard Moore, who have a combined 11 forced incompletions.
Shuler and Talich will be responsible for covering Toney over the middle and limiting missed tackles. Talich ranks as the seventh-best defender in space, missing five tackles all season.
There's no doubt Miami will respond on offense with Mensah and Toney, but the Notre Dame offense will have success picking apart the middle of the Hurricanes' pass coverage.
Both teams have the numbers to suggest multiple drives will end in scoring position, but Notre Dame ranks as the best FBS offense in terms of Finishing Drives.
Look for Miami's consistent issues against the pass — and its bottom-10 tackle grade — to be the difference in South Bend.
Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 or Better · CJ Carr 21+ Completions (-118) · Jaden Greenhouse Over 40.5 Yards
