Wilson: Projecting Week 10 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday

Wilson: Projecting Week 10 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday article feature image
Credit:

Julie Bennett-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Dillon

  • Collin Wilson uses his power ratings to project every Week 10 college football point spread.
  • He also gives out games he's hoping to see when sportsbooks open lines on Sunday.
  • Use these numbers as a guide when placing wagers early in the week or on Saturday.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 10’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my college football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 10 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Alabama at LSU

Projected Spread: LSU +12.5
Number I Want: LSU +14.5 or better

The lookahead line was posted LSU +14 at various offshore books. Both Alabama and LSU come off a bye week, so the same number should be available when lines open for Week 10.

The Tigers present the stiffest defense Alabama will face all season, ranking top 10 in defending passing-downs explosiveness. There is a clear advantage with LSU’s special teams, as well.

Boston College at Virginia Tech

Projected Spread: Virginia Tech PK
Number I Want: Boston College +1 or better

After losing to North Carolina State on Oct. 6, the Eagles are back to being one of the most explosive teams in the nation. Running back AJ Dillion went for 149 yards against Miami on Saturday and will look to do the same against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies ranked dead last in defending rush explosiveness heading into Week 9 and got torched by Georgia Tech. Boston College should have its best offensive day in this game.

Missouri at Florida

Projected Spread: Florida -6
Number I Want: Florida -6 or better

Missouri didn’t give up an offensive touchdown through 60 minutes of play against Kentucky, but a punt return touchdown and an untimed down worked against the Tigers.

Drew Lock is now 0-9 straight up against ranked competition in his career. Florida will be ranked and have a top-20 havoc unit on the defensive line to pressure Lock at The Swamp.

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Oklahoma State, fresh off a home upset of Texas, travels to Baylor, which will be on extra rest. The Pokes may also have overlook to Bedlam (Oklahoma) in Week 11.
  • Troy and Georgia Southern have a colossal Sun Belt showdown in Week 11. Both may have overlook in Week 10 against Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe, respectively.
  • Northwestern may have overlook against Notre Dame. The Wildcats have a Big Ten West showdown with Iowa in Week 11.
  • Ball State, Northern Illinois, Utah, Appalachian State, Central Michigan, Duke, Louisiana Tech, San Diego State, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Tulane and Kansas State are all on back-to back-travel. 
  • Miami Ohio-Buffalo, Temple-UCF, Memphis-East Carolina and Alabama-LSU are teams facing each other off a bye week. The remaining list of teams off a bye includes Bowling Green, Michigan, Ole Miss, Marshall, UTSA, ULM, Liberty and Rutgers.
  • Auburn comes off a bye week to face Texas A&M, which is on back-to-back travel after losing to Mississippi State.

A Few Other Week 8 Notes

  • Ball State quarterback Riley Neal left the Ohio game with a knee injury. No timetable is set for his return
  • Quarterback Zac Thomas for Appalachian State was taken out of the game after injury against Georgia Southern.

  • Quarterback Brian Lewerke did not play for Michigan State, but backup Rocky Lombardi went for 318 yards and two touchdowns

  • Ohio vs. Western Michigan features two teams ranked in the top 20 overall in explosiveness and bottom 20 in defending it. There should be plenty of points in this contest.
  • Oklahoma State ranks in the top 20 in rush explosiveness as the Cowboys visit Baylor. The Bears are in the bottom 10 in defending rush explosiveness.
  • As of Week 9, Memphis was the most explosive rushing team in the nation while East Carolina ranked in the bottom 10.