College Football Weather Report: Wind, High Temperatures Presenting Betting Value in Week 2
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As college football’s Week 2 approaches by the minute, many bettors are probably spending the morning doing some procrastinated research on teams they don’t know too much about — at least the 2020 versions of those teams.
That’s all fine and well, in fact I encourage you to do exactly that here, but there are some other factors at play in a college football game aside from the players and coaches, one of which requires minimal research (since it’s something you’ve been familiar with your whole life) but can lead to some serious betting value in the right situation.
That would be the weather.
Our Bet Labs data, which dates back to 2005, has proven that there are some serious edges on games that feature certain weather types, and Week 2 consists of three such games.
Weather reports as of Saturday morning.
Campbell vs. Georgia Southern
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPNU
- Weather forecast: Humid, 87 degrees, 10 mph wind
- Over/under: 58.5
It’s going to be a hot one in Statesboro this afternoon. And through that high temperature we find our historical betting value for this game.
Since 2005, non-conference games played in temps of 85 degrees or higher have hit the over at a 58.3% rate (278-199-7). That record has produced 59.5 units over the years for a 12.1% return on investment.
There is one caveat, however. This system cuts out games that have wind speeds higher than 10 mph (see the Citadel-USF section), so this matchup is right on the cusp. If the forecasted breeze picks up at all, it will no longer being a system match.
Weather angle: Over
UTSA vs. Texas State
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Weather forecast: Clear, 88 degrees, 7 mph wind
- Over/under: 57.5
Here’s one whose status as a match for our weather system is less in question in the hours leading up to kick.
Once again we’re looking at a toasty playing environment in San Marcos, with the average temperature expected around 88 degrees. And with this being a C-USA vs. Sun Belt matchup with the wind safely under the 10-mph mark, we’ve got a pretty sure fit for our system.
Weather angle: Over
Citadel vs. South Florida
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
- Weather forecast: Possible light rain, 80 degrees, 14 mph wind
- Over/under: 55.5
I mentioned above there was a reason for cutting off the “high-temperature over” system at 10 mph. Here you go:
Since 2005, regular season college football games played in winds of 13 mph or more have hit the under at a 57% clip, and on an even larger sample. They’ve got a record of 526-396-35 the under, having won 100.1 units for a 10.5% ROI.
This one’s got 1 mph of leeway with which to work as kickoff approaches, so I like its chances of remaining a match. You can find updated forecasts on the game page in The Action Network App.
Weather angle: Under