College Football PrizePicks Player Props: Picks for Week 5, Including Texas RB Bijan Robinson & More
Steven Branscombe/Getty Images. Pictured: Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Trey Palmer (3).
- The college football Week 5 slate is loaded, and that means there's value from a PrizePicks parlay perspective.
- Our expert dives in to provide five picks, including Texas' star running back.
- Mike Bainbridge also touches on Mississippi State QB Will Rogers and three receivers.
College football player props are back with a full slate of options at our disposal for Saturday, and Action Network has you covered with our best plays for the Week 5 slate.
Our season-long record sits at 11-8 after last Saturday's misfortune, when we finished at 2-3. Our three losses — NC State’s Demie Sumo, East Carolina’s Keaton Mitchell and Missouri’s Luther Burden — all suffered injuries that limited their playing time. We’re due for some better luck.
If you enjoy college football player prop betting, and are interested in weekly statistical projections, please make sure to check out our friends at the CFFSite who compile the data that can give you the edge against the books.
College Football PrizePicks Player Props for Week 5
In the table below, you'll find my top five PrizePicks player props from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Iowa State vs. Kansas
WR Xavier Hutchinson Receptions
Pretty cut and dry here — this prop is just way too low given what Iowa State’s WR1 has done to start the season: 36 catches in four games and averaging an absurd 13 targets per game.
The senior receiver also has one of the highest target shares (36%) in the country. Iowa State really integrates just two receivers in its passing scheme with Hutchinson and sophomore Jaylin Noel.
This is probably our favorite play of the entire board; our CFFSite projections call for eight receptions against a Kansas secondary that allows 264.5 passing yards per game.
Pick: Xavier Hutchinson Over 6.5 Receptions
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
QB Will Rogers Passing Yards
Will Rogers' passing yards line opened at 250.5 to start the week but has flatlined in the last two days. I assumed it would jump even closer to 300 yards.
In 26 appearances with the Bulldogs, Rogers has hit this benchmark (270.5 passing yards) 19 times. So, Rogers is surpassing this number at a 73% clip for his career — and that even includes two games during his freshman season when he was not even the starter.
As is the case with every Mike Leach-led offense, the Bulldogs rank inside the top five offenses in FBS, averaging 48.5 pass attempts per game.
Granted, Rogers draws a tough matchup against a top-10 Aggies pass defense, but the CFFSite's projection (316.0 yards) has Rogers clearing this number by a safe margin.
Pick: Will Rogers Over 270.5 Passing Yards
WR Evan Stewart Receptions
It's safe to say our attention will be on this SEC matchup in the 4 o’clock window with two picks from Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State. Next up: Aggies star freshman wide receiver Evan Stewart.
Last week's victory against Arkansas came with some disappointing news: Senior receiver Ainias Smith is done for the year with a foot injury.
Smith's injury is detrimental to the A&M’s passing offense, but it also enables some of the underclassmen to step into the spotlight. Most prominent among those underclassmen is Stewart, who was tied with Smith for the team lead in targets (24) despite missing a game due to suspension.
The next-closest Texas A&M player in targets this season? Running back Devon Achane (12).
So, we expect quarterback Max Johnson to look towards Stewart often when dropping back to pass. Stewart is the clear WR1 moving forward.
Pick: Evan Stewart Over 4.5 Receptions
West Virginia vs. Texas
RB Bijan Robinson Fantasy Points
We can go ahead and just call a spade a spade with this selection.
This is a total gut-feel pick after Bijan Robinson’s costly fumble against Texas Tech last week that cost the Longhorns the game. It was reported that the junior running back was carrying a football around campus this week, so we know that motivation won’t be an issue this week.
Ok, now for the evidence.
Robinson has hit this number in each of his last five outings and will face a West Virginia defense that allows 19.7 fantasy points per game to RB1s.
Both Rodney Hammond (Pittsburgh) and Devin Neal (Kansas) have scored 21 or more fantasy points against the Mountaineers this season, and both of those running backs play in a timeshare. Not the case for Robinson.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 20.5 Fantasy Points
Indiana vs. Nebraska
WR Trey Palmer Receptions
Palmer was great to us the last time we played him in Week 3, soaring over his reception prop as he finished with 10 receptions on 11 targets in the loss to Oklahoma.
We’re going back to the well here against Indiana in a matchup between two teams that are both inside the top 20 nationally in pace.
As we mentioned a few weeks ago, the slot receiver has routinely been the profitable position in offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s scheme, and now he has full control of the offense following the firing of head coach Scott Frost.
Despite three drops in four games, Palmer is converting on nearly 78% of the 36 targets that have come his way.