College Football Week 8 Analytics Betting Preview: Success Rate, Havoc & More (Saturday, Oct. 22)
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: A general view of Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Well, we had a ton of top 20 matchups last weekend, and with the exception of Penn State vs. Michigan, they all delivered on one-score thrillers. This week is much more standard, but that doesn't mean there's any less opportunity — particularly when a weekly article is this hot.
We cashed Washington's team total over last weekend, bringing our record in this article to 5-0-1. While I'm personally having the worst college football season of my life gambling-wise, I'm glad I can at least provide one winner per week.
If you're new to this article, thank you for joining. We're happy to have you!
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have been found to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you are interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 8.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome.
Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 8:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
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Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Bowling Green Falcons Defense vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Offense
- Rice Owls Defense vs. Louisiana Tech Ragin' Cajuns Offense
- UCF Knight's Defense vs. East Carolina Pirates Offense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
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Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Central Michigan Chippewas Defense vs. Bowling Green Falcons Offense
- James Madison Dukes Defense vs. Marshall Thundering Herd Offense
- Miami (OH) RedHawks Defense vs. Western Michigan Broncos Offense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
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Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Baylor Bears Offense vs. Kansas Jayhawks Defense
- Kent State Golden Flashes Offense vs. Akron Zips Defense
- Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Defense vs. Texas State Bobcats Offense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
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Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Ohio State Buckeyes Defense vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Offense
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons Defense vs. Boston College Eagles Offense
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights Defense vs. Indiana Hoosiers Offense
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drivesis calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many points per opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
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Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Stanford Cardinal Offense vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Defense
- Colorado Buffaloes Offense vs. Oregon State Beavers Defense
- UCF Knights Defense vs. East Carolina Pirates Offense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
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Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Maryland Terrapins Defense vs. Northwestern Wildcats Offense
- Kansas State Wildcats Offense vs. TCU Horned Frogs Defense
- New Mexico State Lobos Defense vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Offense
College Football Week 8 Betting Takeaways
Last week was, dare I say, an easy pick. I don't think I've ever seen a more lopsided offensive and defensive matchup.
This week is a little murkier. However, I think there's one matchup that stands out as a must-bet for me.
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That's right, we're going to the American Athletic Conference. And we're going to be fading this Pirates offense and backing this Knights defense.
The Knights have a significant edge on defense in Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives. The Pirates might have a few nice plays on the day, but overall, I expect UCF to lock them up.
ECU also pays at a very average pace, which will serve our purposes well.
Pick: ECU Team Total Under 29.5 (-115) ⋅ Bet to Under 28.5 (-115)
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