The Duke Blue Devils take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlotte for the ACC Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Virginia is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. Duke, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 total points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Virginia prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Duke vs Virginia Prediction
- Duke vs. Virginia Pick: Virginia Team Total Over 30.5 · Jeremiah Hasley Anytime TD (+250)
My Virginia vs. Duke best bet is on the Cavaliers to go over their team total and Blue Devils tight end Jeremiah Hasley to score a touchdown. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Duke vs Virginia Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -166 |
- Duke vs Virginia Spread: Virginia -3.5, Duke +3.5
- Duke vs Virginia Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- Duke vs Virginia Moneyline: Duke +140, Virginia -166
Duke vs Virginia College Football Betting Preview
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Looking to Cap Improbable Season
Despite a 7-5 record, Duke will look to become an improbable ACC champion and make the College Football Playoff.
The Blue Devils suffered three ranked losses and another pair against UConn and Tulane. Head coach Manny Diaz overachieved this season with a second-order win total of 5.8 despite the seven-win outcome.
The primary reason for the volatility came with the defense, finishing near dead last in giving up explosives and Points Per Opportunity allowed.
The final five teams on Duke's schedule averaged 34.6 points per game, including a Week 12 loss to this same Virginia team.
Quarterback Darian Mensah had similar numbers compared to last season at Tulane. The sophomore lowered his turnover-worthy play rate to 3%, throwing an interception in just one of the past nine Duke games.
However, the Blue Devils have struggled to establish the run, ranking outside the top 90 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Slot Que'Sean Brown and wideout Cooper Barkate each average two yards per route run and have racked up nine combined touchdowns.
The biggest offensive piece over the last month of play has been tight end Jeremiah Hasley. After seeing minimal targets without a score through Week 10, Hasley has generated 22 targets and three touchdowns over the past four games.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Hoos Doing Their Job
Virginia finished the season with a second-order win total of 8, indicating there were some fraudulent box scores along the way. However, the final two games of the season against Virginia Tech and Duke generated a 100% post-game win expectancy.
The Cavaliers have been excellent in creating Havoc on the defensive side of the ball, entering the ACC Championship ranked 11th nationally in that area.
Virginia sits top-five in pass breakups, the primary source for a PFF coverage grade of 18th.
The interior of the defensive line has also been a key, with defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter providing one of the highest rush grades on the roster.
The primary source of success on the offensive side of the ball comes from rush explosives. Virginia ranks 18th in Rush EPA thanks to J'Mari Taylor providing 20 rushing attempts that went over 10 yards.
Head coach Tony Elliott calls pure zone read on the ground, with 203 attempts going inside compared to 178 attempts going outside.
Duke vs Virginia Pick, Betting Analysis
Duke ranks outside the top 100 in rush explosives allowed, so Taylor will have the opportunity to rack up plenty of big plays for the Virginia offense.
The Blue Devils have been horrific in keeping teams off the scoreboard once a drive extends past the 40-yard line. Opponents are averaging 4.5 points on possessions that get into scoring position.
Virginia should score often with advantages in scoring position and a positive rush EPA indicator.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for the game to be closer than the market, giving value to Duke. However, both teams have had improbable outcomes the entire season, so live betting may be the better option when looking for a side.
When it comes to props, Mensah has looked for Hasley on all touchdown drives over the past month of play. Along with a Virginia team total over, look for Mensah to hit his tight end in the end zone.
Pick: Virginia Team Total Over 30.5 · Jeremiah Hasley Anytime TD (+250)
Duke vs Virginia Betting Trends
