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The East Carolina Pirates take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, TN. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Memphis is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -365. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my East Carolina vs. Memphis prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 22.
East Carolina vs Memphis Prediction
- East Carolina vs. Memphis Pick: Memphis -10 or Better
My Memphis vs. East Carolina best bet is on the Tigers to rebound and cover at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
East Carolina vs Memphis Odds
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -122 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +285 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 +100 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -365 |
- East Carolina vs Memphis point spread: East Carolina +10.5 (-122), Memphis -10.5 (+100)
- East Carolina vs Memphis over/under: 54.5 (-105o / -115u)
- East Carolina vs Memphis moneyline: East Carolina +285, Memphis -365
East Carolina vs Memphis College Football Preview
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview: Can't Close the Deal
East Carolina pulled off an impressive feat against UAB, going to overtime and losing by 13 points (after leading 17-9 with under a minute left). East Carolina hasn't beaten a team this year with more than two wins to its name — including FCS NC Central — and its losses have been by the margins.
Rather than paint an optimistic view of those losses narrowly becoming wins, it shows a deficiency: East Carolina just can't close games.
This looks like a team gutted of both its coordinators, chiefly on offense. Just a season after finishing inside the top 40, East Carolina now sits 112th in points per drive and 130th in success rate.
Blake Harrell didn't take long to replace QB Mitch Griffis with Emory Williams, but the results haven't been any better. Williams threw for just 112 yards in the overtime loss to UAB, benefiting from a short field and some serious fumble luck on his lone touchdown pass.
Projected top receiver Brock Spalding hasn't played this year, though he was cleared to practice ahead of Week 6 — his return would be massive for the Pirates.
OC Jordan Davis opts for a run-heavy approach under TJ Engleman Jr. (6.9 yards per carry), but play calling is more difficult without a serious talent edge like he had at North Texas. The offensive line isn't good enough to get much of a push, and play selection has been average at best.
East Carolina's defense has been decent given its cast of opponents. The raw metrics are pretty good, top-25 in havoc rate, success rate and yards per play, but adjust for opponent quality, and East Carolina falls outside the top 50 nationally.
It's played just one opponent in the top 87 nationally in points per drive (Alabama) and has logged zero wins over teams ranked better than 115th in the metric.
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview: Still a Top Team
An excerpt from my write-up featuring Memphis at Tulane last week:
Memphis' last two games came by a combined 97-21 — both over American Conference foes — reinforcing the idea that Memphis isn't a team to play with its food anymore (see: last year's 31-24 outright loss to UAB as a -21.5 favorite).
Oops.
Memphis turned the ball over six times (including a pick-six), managed just two successful third-and-fourth-down plays, busted an assignment on a game-sealing touchdown run, and lost 31-17.
It was a nightmare game for Charles Huff and the Tigers, who still gained more yards than their opponent. Try as Will Hall did, he couldn't lose the game Memphis wrapped up for him.
That said, Memphis should still forecast as the top team in the American. That Tulane result will skew the market and bettors for the near future, creating an opportunity for Memphis backers.
The duo of J'Mond Tapp and Elijah Kinsler is as good as you'll find in the Group of Six, and the unit has logged a sack on nearly 8.8% of opposing dropbacks (19th). The Tigers' defense still forced a pair of turnovers from Tulane last week, typically good enough to set up the offense for a win.
It's not entirely worth throwing out that Week 7 monstrosity — rather, keep it in mind as a possibility for this team on the road — but it's not worth changing Memphis' outlook for the rest of the season.
It's an anomaly and should be treated as such.
East Carolina vs Memphis Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a great buy-low spot for Memphis as it returns home and faces East Carolina in its second straight road game. The offense should be considerably more buttoned up, and the defense has a significant advantage.
Memphis should be able to get pressure on Williams, further disrupting East Carolina's already-erratic passing game. A third of Tulane's rushing production came on one play, and Memphis counters East Carolina's rushing attack well.
The Pirates don't have the firepower to keep up offensively; despite their up-tempo approach, per-down inefficiency tires out both sides of the ball.
Marcus Stokes and the Tigers have one of the country's more explosive offenses. They're unlikely to lose six possessions again, especially at home on a weeknight. Expect Memphis to continue operating with tempo as it out-mans East Carolina.
The factors really align to back Memphis off its worst game of the season: Regression on the frequency of turnovers, not playing a short week on the road and returning home against an inferior opponent point to the Tigers on Thursday night.
Pick: Memphis -10
East Carolina vs Memphis Betting Trends
