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Thursday. Night. Football.
Thursday's NFL game between the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears isn't the only action on the gridiron tomorrow night. In fact, we have three college football games on the docket as well.
Our staff broke down all three games — Appalachian State vs. James Madison, Kennesaw State vs. Liberty and Memphis vs. East Carolina — and came through with a pick for each.
With so much action to get to, let's dive into their Thursday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 22.
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Thursday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Appalachian State vs. James Madison Pick
By RoadToCFB
Both teams enter this game on short rest. App State last played Friday against rival Coastal Carolina in Conway; JMU last played at home Saturday against Georgia State (which came off a bye) and hits the road, giving it an exceptionally short week to work on.
The rest disadvantage continues — JMU doesn't have its season bye week until Week 12 (Nov. 21) and plays six road games in eight consecutive weeks.
The first thing to go during stretches of attrition is the defense.
Appalachian State's defense is going to meet its match. Though improved, App State's season-long metrics have been propped up by playing some bottom-rung offenses (Charlotte, ECU) and in impossible conditions (ODU).
JMU runs the cleanest operation of any opponent yet and operates where App State is deficient, against the run game.
This total hasn't moved very much and sits in a nebulous zone between key numbers 55 and 58. With fine weather conditions inbound, anticipate favorable conditions for offenses to operate.
Action PRO recorded five sharp moves to the over on this game throughout the week, and we're still getting the best number.
Despite improvements on defense from App State, JMU should cover much of this number against a defense that ranks 101st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 57.5)
| | |
Kennesaw State vs. Liberty Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Liberty listed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total set at 50.5. I'm going to play the under here.
I'll wait in the market to see if we see a 51 or 51.5 flash, as that's my strike price. I would ultimately play the under at 50.5, but with 51 being a key number in totals, I'll seek to get that number.
Liberty has been on a tear offensively against four poor rushing defenses of Ball State, Coastal Carolina, Delaware and Sam Houston over the last couple of weeks, but the Flames are going to have to be methodical against the Owls, who have played really good run defense over the last few weeks.
Kennesaw State ranks 43rd nationally in rush-play explosiveness surrendered on defense, and the Owls have allowed just four rushing plays all season exceeding 20 yards.
Liberty will have to be methodical in this game, and while quarterback Deshawn Purdie has shown downfield passing explosiveness on throws to Makai Jackson, Kennesaw State takes that away defensively.
Kennesaw State's red-zone defense has also been outstanding the last three weeks, allowing touchdowns on just half of opponent red-zone trips.
Liberty has flubbed some opportunities in the red zone in recent weeks, so don’t be surprised if the Flames are held to a couple of red-zone field-goal attempts here.
Liberty has made excellent second-half adjustments all season, and the Flames are allowing just 4.7 points per game after halftime.
Second-half adjustments will be made, and the inconsistent Kennesaw State offense will struggle to come up with scoring drives consistently in this game.
The target number is 51 or better, but 50.5 will be a play to the under if we don’t see 51.
Pick: Under 51 (Play Under 50.5 or Smaller)
| | |
Memphis vs. East Carolina Pick
By RoadToCFB
This is a great buy-low spot for Memphis as it returns home and faces East Carolina in its second straight road game. The offense should be considerably more buttoned up, and the defense has a significant advantage.
Memphis should be able to get pressure on Pirates quarterback Emory Williams, further disrupting East Carolina's already-erratic passing game.
A third of Tulane's rushing production came on one play, and Memphis counters East Carolina's rushing attack well.
The Pirates don't have the firepower to keep up offensively; despite their uptempo approach, per-down inefficiency tires out both sides of the ball.
On the other side, quarterback Marcus Stokes and the Tigers have one of the country's more explosive offenses. They're unlikely to lose six possessions again, especially at home on a weeknight.
Expect Memphis to continue operating with tempo as it outmans East Carolina.
The factors really align to back Memphis off its worst game of the season: Regression on the frequency of turnovers, not playing a short week on the road and returning home against an inferior opponent point to the Tigers on Thursday night.
Pick: Memphis -10
