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The Liberty Flames take on the Kennesaw State Owls in Kennesaw, Ga. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -430. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. Kennesaw State prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 22.
Liberty vs Kennesaw State Prediction
- Liberty vs. Kennesaw State Pick: Under 51 (Play Under 50.5 or Smaller)
My Kennesaw State vs. Liberty best bet is on the points total under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs Kennesaw State Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -430 |
| Kennesaw St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +330 |
- Liberty vs Kennesaw State point spread: Liberty -10.5 (-108), Kennesaw St +10.5 (-112)
- Liberty vs Kennesaw State over/under: 49.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Liberty vs Kennesaw State moneyline: Liberty -430, Kennesaw St +330
Liberty vs Kennesaw State College Football Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Davis, Jones Power Revamped Ground Game
Liberty has really started rounding into form after escaping in week two against Gardner-Webb.
The Flames are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread over the last month, while the offense has scored 30 or more points in every game and the defense has completely stifled its opponents.
We have not seen this Liberty team play the type of complementary football we are seeing in several years; the Flames are now fresh off the bye week and should be fully focused on this game against Kennesaw State, a foe they have lost to each of the last two seasons.
The Liberty ground game has been revamped this season, as the Flames are rushing for 223 yards per contest and averaging 5.3 yards per carry, and the last three weeks have seen the best performances of the season.
Kam Davis and Peyton Jones provide an excellent 1-2 punch, and the multiple formation looks make it difficult to discern where the attack is coming from.
Davis has rushed for 524 yards and four touchdowns this season, while Jones and Jaylon Coleman are also significant contributors.
Deshawn Purdie is throwing the ball well, completing 61% of his passes for 1,050 yards and 8 touchdowns. Purdie has not thrown an interception this season, and the offensive line has held up well.
The two glaring issues have been pre-snap penalties and fumbles.
Liberty is the second-most penalized team in the country, and many of these penalties are procedural.
Inconsistent play in the red zone has not cost this Flames team a game since the season-opening loss against James Madison, but several red zone fumbles have thwarted promising drives.
If the Flames keep playing with fire — for lack of a better term — eventually it's really going to cost them.
The Liberty defense has been playing really well, holding opponents to just 15.3 points per game.
Second-half adjustments have clearly been made, as the Flames have allowed just 28 points after halftime this season and opponents are averaging just 116 second-half yards.
This is a sign of great coaching, something we did not see from Liberty over the prior two seasons.
The Flames are not generating much pressure, but the stop unit has been excellent on third down and in the red zone, having allowed just three red-zone touchdowns over the last five weeks.
Kennesaw State Owls Betting Preview: A Foreseeable Regression
Kennesaw State was bound to regress to the mean after an exquisite season that featured double-digit wins and a CUSA title.
Head Coach Jerry Mack was pulling all the right levers last season, and the offense was the most explosive in the conference, but the style of play was at times unsustainable.
The departure of offensive and defensive talent has made it tough for this bunch to compete as the Owls sit at 1-5.
The last three losses have been excruciatingly gut-wrenching, as Kennesaw State was in position to win each of them, and, frankly, Mack was outcoached last week.
Poor decision-making was to blame for the loss against Missouri State, and a quick regroup will be necessary if the hosts are to knock off the premier team in CUSA.
The driver of the lack of scoring has been a lack of explosiveness, as the Owls are not registering downfield chunk plays in the pass game.
In fact, the Owls are dead last in the country in explosiveness through the air, and while quarterback Rickie Collins has completed 70%, the Owls have just 14 pass plays all season in excess of 20 yards.
Collins leads the team in rushing with 271 yards, and he has bailed from the pocket early while seeking to run the football.
His creativity has helped avoid sacks, but the team has experienced inconsistent play on the ground. The last couple of weeks' failed fourth-down conversions have also been an issue, leaving the defense in vulnerable situations.
The Owls' stop unit has been good at limiting explosive plays, but there has not been enough consistency against the pass, which has led to three blown leads over the last three outings.
Kennesaw State has shown some toughness against the run the last three weeks, allowing just 104 yards on the ground per game and 3.3 yards per rush. This unit will have to bring their best to stop the Liberty ground attack in this game.
Liberty vs Kennesaw State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Liberty listed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total set at 50.5. I'm going to play the under here.
I'll wait in the market to see if we see a 51 or 51.5 flash, as that's my strike price. I would ultimately play the under at 50.5, but with 51 being a key number in totals, I'll seek to get that number.
Liberty has been on a tear offensively against four poor rushing defenses of Ball State, Coastal Carolina, Delaware and Sam Houston over the last couple of weeks, but the Flames are going to have to be methodical against the Owls, who have played really good run defense over the last few weeks.
Kennesaw State ranks 43rd nationally in rush-play explosiveness surrendered on defense, and the Owls have allowed just four rushing plays all season exceeding 20 yards.
Liberty will have to be methodical in this game, and while quarterback Deshawn Purdie has shown downfield passing explosiveness on throws to Makai Jackson, Kennesaw State takes that away defensively.
Kennesaw State's red-zone defense has also been outstanding the last three weeks, allowing touchdowns on just half of opponent red-zone trips.
Liberty has flubbed some opportunities in the red zone in recent weeks, so don’t be surprised if the Flames are held to a couple of red-zone field-goal attempts here.
Liberty has made excellent second-half adjustments all season, and the Flames are allowing just 4.7 points per game after halftime.
Second-half adjustments will be made, and the inconsistent Kennesaw State offense will struggle to come up with scoring drives consistently in this game.
The target number is 51 or better, but 50.5 will be a play to the under if we don’t see 51.
Pick: Under 51 (Play Under 50.5 or Smaller)
