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The Eastern Michigan Eagles take on the UMass Minutemen in Amherst, Massachusetts, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UMass is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +188 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Eastern Michigan vs. UMass prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
Eastern Michigan vs UMass Prediction
- Eastern Michigan vs. UMass Pick: Eastern Michigan ML +190
My UMass vs. Eastern Michigan best bet is on the Eagles to win the game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Eastern Michigan vs UMass Odds
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +188 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -230 |
- Eastern Michigan vs UMass Spread: UMass -6.5 (-105), Eastern Michigan +6.5 (-115)
- Eastern Michigan vs UMass Over/Under: 48.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Eastern Michigan vs UMass Moneyline: Eastern Michigan +188, UMass -230
Eastern Michigan vs UMass College Football Preview
I’ll take Eastern Michigan at nearly 2-1.
Around the BBOC HQ water cooler, it’s been all UMass, UMass, UMass.
The Minutemen already cashed their season win total over and sit fourth in the MAC futures market at 8-1. They’ve got Pop Watson, a sawed-off, dual-threat quarterback with huge stats. I get the hype because he’s everything G6 football is supposed to be.
But how much is that Rutgers upset actually worth? Outside of that early shocker, UMass’ resume is thin with two FCS wins and a victory over Sacramento State.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks every FBS program: Rutgers at 75, Sacramento State at 153, Sacred Heart at 257 and Stonehill at 335. This was not a murderers’ row for the Minutemen.
I always like a checklist for potential upsets, and Eastern Michigan has it all.
A head coach I like? Check. Chris Creighton is the real deal in MAC spots. Since 2014, he’s the third-most profitable MAC coach as an underdog, cashing nearly 59% of the time with 27 outright upsets, tied for fifth-most over the last 12 seasons.
That’s more than two upsets a year. You can hang your hat on Creighton showing up when his team is the underdog.
Quarterback? Check. I’m not swooning, but Noah Kim’s at least a B/B+ by MAC standards.
Last year when he faced the top MAC teams — Miami (OH), Western Michigan and Ohio — he tossed eight touchdown passes, added a rushing score and completed 61% of his throws. He kept them in those games.
Eastern Michigan vs UMass Pick, Betting Analysis
All of that brings me back to UMass.
I don’t buy that it's as stout as its metrics suggest because of the quality of competition. Are the Minutemen really a top-25 pass defense with an elite pass rush, or have they been feasting on offensive lines that should be lining up for someone else?
So, I like Eastern Michigan to keep hanging around as a live upset candidate. With Creighton’s history, a competent QB, and a UMass resume that looks thin under scrutiny, I think the Eagles can pull off an upset.
Pick: Eastern Michigan ML +190
Eastern Michigan vs UMass Betting Trends
