The Florida Atlantic Owls take on the Navy Midshipmen in Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday, Oct. 25. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Navy is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. FAU, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +14 underdog and is +450 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 points.
Here’s my FAU vs. Navy prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
FAU vs Navy Prediction
- FAU vs. Navy Pick: FAU +14
My Navy vs. FAU best bet is on the Owls to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
FAU vs Navy Odds
| FAU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- FAU vs Navy Spread: Navy -14, FAU +14
- FAU vs Navy Over/Under: 62.5 Points
- FAU vs Navy Moneyline: FAU +450, Navy -600
FAU vs Navy College Football Betting Preview
This is my biggest swing of the season.
Navy is going to move the ball on the ground. There’s just no stopping their rushing attack. I'd expect it to average seven or eight yards per carry this game.
But here’s where things get interesting: Close games and turnovers have been a bugaboo for Navy.
The Midshipmen beat Rice by eight points, which isn’t that impressive because the Owls aren't very good. They edged Air Force by three points, but the Falcons essentially have no defense. Then there was a one-point win over Temple. The combined record of those teams is 8-11 straight up.
And all three struggle mightily to stop the run, ranking outside the top 100. So, FAU’s poor run defense isn’t exactly a dealbreaker here.
Now, turnovers are the real crux. Navy has lost five turnover battles this season in six games, but it has fumbled nine times and only lost two. That’s an absurd 78% recovery rate, so the Mids been incredibly lucky.
On the flip side, FAU sits dead last in the entire country in turnover margin. Regression has to come at some point.
If FAU does flip the turnover script and ends up even or plus in that department, it has the firepower to expose Navy’s secondary. The Owls throw it constantly, ranking fourth in the nation in passing yards per game, and they attempt the most passes per game in the country.
The Midshipmen rank 117th in coverage, 114th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 126th in passes defended. They’re just not getting their hands on the ball or closing on receivers.
Temple quarterback Evan Simon went 25-for-36 for 345 yards and a touchdown against Navy and was sacked only once. Same story with UAB's Jalen Kitna, who went 22-for-32, 304 yards, two touchdowns and two picks.
Navy basically sends three- or four-man rushes and never gets home.
I think FAU QB Caden Veltkamp can stand tall in the pocket and pick these guys apart.
Looking ahead, Navy also has some tough games on deck in North Texas, Notre Dame, South Florida and Memphis. If it goes 3-1 and wins the American Conference title, it's probably in the playoff picture.
So, as an undefeated team, I bet Navy is already looking past FAU a bit. Service academies usually run a tight ship, waking up at the crack of dawn and moving disciplined from station to station, but this feels like a classic look-ahead spot.
FAU vs Navy Pick, Betting Analysis
I’ve seen crazier upsets than this, given the holes in Navy’s defense and how close those games have been. That undefeated 6-0 record might be glossing over some cracks.
I have also advocated for taking a shot on the moneyline on a big swing at 5-1.
Head coach Zach Kittley and the Owls have been underwhelming at times, but they’ve flashed some life intermittently. It's safer to take the points, but I think they pull it all together here, catch a break or two, and pull off the upset.
Pick: FAU +14
FAU vs Navy Betting Trends
