Welcome to the opening day of Week 1.
I dove into a few games that may have gone overlooked but will still provide a fun watch with some potential edges to uncover. The goal is to give you an overview of these games to help you make smarter wagering decisions.
With that said, let's take a look at my FCS picks and college football predictions for Thursday, September 3.
Bethune-Cookman vs UCF Pick
| Bethune-Cookman Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+42.5 -110 | 58.5 -114o / -106u | +8000 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-42.5 -110 | 58.5 -114o / -106u | N/A |
Bethune-Cookman ranked dead last in the SWAC in total defense last season, but the Wildcats return several key contributors from last year’s stop unit, including Malik Stinnett and Isaiah Washburn along the defensive line.
These two will be Havoc creators in the SWAC, but I can't imagine their presence will show up here against UCF.
BCU has just seven healthy scholarship linebackers on the current roster, but Stephen Sparrow should be in a position to make a bunch of tackles in this one.
The secondary isn't a strength and will be tested here by the dynamic UCF offense. BCU had a horrific red zone defense last year, allowing scores on 40-of-42 red-zone attempts.
Quarterback Tyler Jefferson transferred in from FAMU after starting his college career at Central Michigan. Jefferson is mobile and can create in the pocket.
Running back Zuberi Mobley could also shine after transferring in from Tulane, while Khamani Robinson will also get touches out of the backfield.
BCU is going to play with tempo at times and have a pair of transfer receivers that they believe can make some plays down the field.
UCF will be much better equipped offensively with Alonza Barnett at quarterback, but they also have a capable backup in Keyone Jenkins, who transferred in from FIU this offseason.
Duke Watson is an explosive back who will register explosive plays in this game, and the receivers should win the one-on-one battles down the field.
UCF has battled some injuries along the defensive line in camp and will be without Bruno Dall and L A Jesse Harrold. The back seven should be OK against BCU, but the pass rush may not be as effective in this game.
The Knights should score a ton of points in the first half here, so one look I might have would be to the first-half over.
Pick: 1H Over 33.5 (Lean)
Merrimack vs Delaware Pick
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +2400 |
| Delaware Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
Merrimack actually didn't play too poorly last week against Rhode Island.
The Rams were without their star quarterback and ran the ball a decent amount early, but Merrimack outgained Rhode Island and squandered several scoring chances while losing the turnover battle, 4-0.
The defensive line was feisty in the first half but was gassed late and generated very little Havoc all game. Rhode Island ran the ball effectively, and Delaware should be able to do the same.
The Hens return Nick Minicucci at quarterback, and he should put up great numbers in this game while facing very little pressure. Minicucci ran the ball 112 times last year, which was too many, but I could see the ground game working here with Jo Silver and Viron Ellison Jr.
Delaware lost a lot of production in the receiver room, but Sean Wilson is back after catching 68 passes for 877 yards last year. Transfers will fit in with the rest of the room.
Delaware should take some opportunities to throw the ball around a little bit here because Merrimack is replacing some talent from last year’s secondary.
The Warriors played both Kent State and Kennesaw State tough last season, and the game against Rhode Island was much more competitive than the final score.
I'm not quite sure I trust Delaware’s run defense to shut down Merrimack’s rushing offense. I would consider taking Merrimack +29.5 in this one.
Pick: Merrimack +29.5 (Lean)
Albany vs Buffalo Pick
| Albany Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -108 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +890 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -112 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
Albany was very impressive last week, defeating New Hampshire at home as a 14-point home underdog.
The Danes were very run-heavy. Quarterback Kai Colon wasn't overly efficient, throwing for just 57 yards on seven completions.
Joey Koch was explosive out of the backfield, and the offensive line didn’t play too badly.
New head coach Tom Perkovich wants to throw the football, but the Danes don't have playmakers at receiver, and Colon was called on to run the ball more than throw it.
The Albany defense was a bright spot, holding UNH to just 62 rushing yards while registering four sacks. The secondary was beat deep three times and could get exposed here if Buffalo has any semblance of a passing game.
The Bulls are going to start quarterback Elijah Holmes, who transferred in from D-II Wingate. Holmes is a dual-threat QB who ran for 321 yards before sacks last year, and he took care of the football well, throwing just three interceptions.
Jasaiah Gathings is the go-to wide receiver target, and Chance Morrow has a chance to be a nice complementary piece.
The ground game should rely on Terrance Shelton Jr. and Devare Mathis, but the offensive line has to play better and give Holmes a fighting chance to let plays develop.
Buffalo's defensive line has some nice pieces, including Cornell Evans and Will Clark, so the unit will focus on creating more Havoc.
The linebackers aren't great, but Zach Bergmann and Stevie Bracey are experienced. SaVeon Brown is also a guy who will have an impact out of the nickel position.
The Bulls want to run some tempo at times, but I wonder how much of that we'll see here with the new quarterback and several other new pieces.
I still believe the Albany secondary could get torched and Buffalo will have chances to secure pass explosives. If they hit, Albany will have to play from severely behind, and this game could snowball.
I'm not sure we'll see it right away, as this Buffalo offense will be a work in progress for much of the first month of the season. I would lean under, but not strongly.
Pick: Under 48.5 (Lean)
