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The Florida State Seminoles take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in Pittsburgh, Pa. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Pitt is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -169. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Pitt prediction and college football pick for Friday, November 13, 2026.
Florida State vs Pitt Prediction
- Florida State vs Pitt Pick: 1Q Under 10.5 (-114)
My Pitt vs. Florida State best bet is on the first quarter Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs Pitt Odds
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 53.5 -115o / -112u | +138 |
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 53.5 -115o / -112u | -169 |
- Florida State vs Pitt point spread: Pitt -3.5 (-105), Florida State +3.5 (-115)
- Florida State vs Pitt over/under: 53.5 (-115o / -112u)
- Florida State vs Pitt moneyline: Florida State +138, Pitt -169
Florida State vs Pitt College Football Preview
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
Florida State is a team defined by its run game and its mistakes. The Seminoles are averaging about 170 rushing yards on 4.5 yards a carry with 22 rushing touchdowns, and Ousmane Kromah leads the way with 609 yards.
The passing game is the problem. Ashton Daniels has thrown 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, the offense has taken 22 sacks, and the team's turnover margin is minus-7. That profile explains why FSU can look explosive on paper (30.7 points a game, roughly 411 yards) and still wind up on the short end of the scoreboard. The yardage is there, but it comes with drives that die on a sack or a pick.
The first-quarter story from last Saturday fits what we've seen. In Rick Stockstill's debut as interim coach after Mike Norvell's firing, Florida State went into Boston College and won 31-24, its first road win since November 2023, but it did not score in the first quarter.
Boston College scored on its opening drive and led 10-0 before the Seminoles settled in, scored twice in the last six minutes of the first half, and took a 21-17 lead on a fake field goal. Stockstill showed a willingness to gamble in his first game, which is fun to watch and also a reminder that this is an offense still finding a script under a new coach while still lacking consistency through the air.
Running back Samuel Singleton Jr. is out, which puts more of the workload on Kromah and Amari Thomas, who ran for two touchdowns against Boston College.
Now Florida State has to take that run-first approach against a Pitt defense that has been hard to run. If they can't prove a threat through the air early, expect their first few drives to stall out.
Pitt Panthers Betting Preview
Pitt is the more complete team, and it is complete in a way that fits our angle. The Panthers are outgaining opponents 6.2 yards per play to 5.0, are scoring about 32 points a game, and are allowing under 20.
The defense is built on stopping the run as opponents are averaging just 2.2 yards per carry and 68 rushing yards a game against Pitt, compared with 167.7 yards at 4.5 per carry for the Panthers' own run game.
Offensively, Pitt wins by holding the ball, with an average time of possession of 31:14, converting 40.5% of its third downs, and using a freshman back, Damon Ferguson, who ran for a season-high 185 yards in the 34-11 win over Georgia Tech on Halloween. That win snapped a three-game skid and clinched bowl eligibility, and the Panthers outgained Georgia Tech 461-238.
The wrinkle is at quarterback. Mason Heintschel, who had thrown 14 touchdowns against one interception, is out for the season with a knee injury, and Holden Geriner has taken over. Geriner threw for 180 yards and a touchdown against Georgia Tech, in a win built around Ferguson and the defense.
Pitt's red zone profile is the other thing to notice. The Panthers have scored on 30 of 36 trips inside the 20, but only 21 of those were touchdowns, and the Panthers are 12 of 13 on field goals.
Those numbers show this is a team comfortable taking three. Pitt also plays its home finale with extra rest, giving the staff more time to script early downs around a freshman running back and a new starting quarterback.
Florida State vs Pitt Pick, Betting Analysis
The matchup points to a controlled start. Florida State's best path to points is the run, and the Seminoles are walking into a defense that has held opponents to 2.2 yards per carry.
If early downs go nowhere, FSU is left with Daniels in third-and-long, which means sacks, tipped balls, and the turnovers that have defined its season. Pitt's opponents convert only 35.4% of their third downs, and a team that cannot stay on schedule does not score quickly in the first quarter.
On the other side, Pitt's offense is not built to hit big plays in a hurry.
The Panthers want to run Ferguson, win the time of possession and take field goals when the drive stalls, and a Geriner-led passing attack against a Florida State defense that allows 28.3 points a game is more likely to move the chains than to strike for 40-yard touchdowns.
That is how you get a quarter that ends 3-0, 7-3, or 7-0.
The market backs up our read. Pitt has been a 3.5-point favorite all week, and the spread has not budged from the opener, with Florida State +3.5 at -105 early and -110 now and Pitt -3.5 moving only from -107 to -106.
The total has sat on 53.5 since it opened, with roughly even ticket counts on the over and under.
The only meaningful movement has been on the moneyline, where Florida State has gone from +120 to as high as +142 while Pitt's price has eased from -176 to around -166 to -170.
That tells me some money likes Florida State to hang around, and a tight, grinding game is the kind where the opening 15 minutes tend to be quiet.
I also like the weather. Temperatures are in the 30s and low 40s for a Friday night game in Pittsburgh, which adds a little to the case for a conservative script to start the game.
Pick: 1Q Under 10.5 (-114 · FanDuel)
