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Week 11 of the college football season has arrived. With the College Football Playoff and conference championship pictures getting clearer by the week, we have plenty of high-stakes action on Saturday.
It begins on Saturday, as the No. 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the SMU Mustangs in an ACC clash with plenty of postseason implications.
Then, we'll move to the Big Ten, where the No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers look to prove the committee wrong when they host the No. 18 USC Trojans.
To close it all out, we have a huge Big 12 battle between the No. 2 Utah Utes and No. 23 Arizona Wildcats.
With so much to get to, let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 11 games on Saturday, November 14.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wake Forest vs. SMU Pick
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Quarterback Gio Lopez was out for Wake Forest's most recent win, a 77-0 annihilation of Merrimack from the FCS.
Head coach Jake Dickert stated that a lower-body injury suffered against Virginia in Week 9 was progressing and he's on the "right track" to see action against SMU.
Lopez has been critical to the Demon Deacons' offensive success, a unit that ranks as the top overall scoring team in terms of Finishing Drives.
Wake Forest has one of the highest numbers of offensive drives to cross the opponent's 40-yard line, averaging 5.1 points per trip.
The surprising aspect of Wake Forest football comes on the defensive side, with the team ranking in the top 20 among all FBS teams in opponent Success Rate allowed, Quality Drives allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Opposing offenses have struggled to create explosive plays against coordinator Scottie Hazelton's defense. The Demon Deacons rank as the top defense nationally in allowing 20-yard plays from scrimmage.
SMU Mustangs
SMU recovered from a Week 9 loss at Syracuse with a rocking-chair victory over Virginia Tech. The Mustangs posted a 63% Success Rate on standard downs, leading to just 17 plays on passing downs.
The explosive drive was the biggest variable for the offense, creating offensive possessions that averaged at least 10 yards per play on 4-of-11 drives.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings had four pass-catchers average more than 10 yards per target, as Yamir Knight and Jalen Cooper combined for four touchdowns on more than 200 yards of receiving.
The SMU defense continued to struggle in two key areas, as Virginia Tech averaged 6.7 yards per carry and cashed in with a touchdown on all three red-zone attempts.
The Mustangs boast a top-25 pass-rush defense and fall within the top 40 of Havoc rankings, but the ability to get opposing offenses off schedule has been the challenge.
SMU ranks 78th in standard downs Success Rate allowed compared to 20th in passing downs. Third-down defense has been immaculate for head coach Rhett Lashlee, ranking ninth in third-down defense.
Wake Forest vs SMU Prediction
For SMU to climb into position for the ACC Championship game, the defense must step up on standard downs. Wake Forest elects to run the ball on 58% of first downs and just over 50% of second downs, placing emphasis on the run concepts.
The Demon Deacons are a zone-read offense led by running back Ty Clark III. The junior has been lackluster in elusiveness, averaging just 2.7 yards after first contact while forcing only 13 missed tackles on the season.
The SMU defense has a respectable 51% Success Rate against inside and outside zone, indicating that Wake Forest will need heroics from Lopez.
SMU has fielded a much better pass defense than rush defense, ranking in the top 50 in EPA allowed. Lopez has high Success Rate numbers against SMU's preferred coverages of man, Cover 3 and Cover 1.
The Mustangs' ability to generate pressure is key against Lopez, as the quarterback has failed to force a turnover-worthy play in a clean pocket. Wake Forest ranks 71st in pass blocking, an issue against SMU edge defender Marques White, who has seven sacks and 29 pressures on the season.
Wake Forest will also be successful in sending the opposing offense into passing downs. SMU uses the zone-read run concept more than most teams in FBS, but the Demon Deacons have a high 57% Success Rate against it.
The biggest advantage for Wake Forest in the advanced statistics is the elite numbers in allowing methodical drives and converting scoring opportunities into points.
The Demon Deacons rank 13th in Quality Drives, defined as the ability to limit methodical possessions. SMU has struggled to get downfield all season without using explosives, ranking 89th in offensive momentum killer.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have SMU slightly favored by a point, directly where the market resides.
The bigger edge comes in the totals department with a projection of 55.
SMU's heavy pass rush will create a crowded pocket for Lopez, as his turnover-worthy play rate rises to 3.4% with pressure.
Conversely, SMU will struggle to sustain drives and enter scoring position against a Wake Forest defense that has been top-10 in points allowed in scoring position.
Pick: Under 61 or Better
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USC vs. Indiana Pick
USC Trojans
USC continues to field one of the best passing offenses in the nation, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. The Trojans lead the Big Ten in passing yards and touchdowns, falling to fifth nationally in Passing Success Rate.
A top-25 Havoc allowed number comes from limiting opposing pass rushes, as Maiava has been sacked just eight times this season.
True freshman pass-catchers lead the team in targets, as wideout Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and slot Trent Mosley have a total of 10 touchdowns on nearly 1,000 receiving yards.
USC surprised college football fans by allowing just 18 points to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were down to a freshman quarterback, but the Trojans did keep Heisman contender Jeremiah Smith to 83 yards on 10 catches.
The victory does mark improvement, but a number of underlying statistics point to USC's continued struggles on defense. The Trojans missed 20 tackles against Ohio State, furthering a poor PFF grade of 113th in tackling.
Coordinator Gary Patterson has been unable to get any Havoc from his unit, also ranking bottom-20 in allowing quality drives. No matter who Indiana has under center, the Trojans must improve on an Pass EPA allowed rank of 115th.
Indiana Hoosiers
Head coach Curt Cignetti expressed "total confidence" in seventh-year senior quarterback Grant Wilson after the backup quarterback took over duties from Josh Hoover against Minnesota and posted three big-time throws.
In comparison, Hoover had made three or more big-time throws in a single game this season just once.
Cignetti was indecisive in his early-week press conferences about who the starter would be against USC, but the expectation is that both will see time — as long as Hoover can return from the injury he suffered against Ohio State.
The Hoosiers defense is National Championship-ready, as Northwestern is the only team to exceed 20 points this season.
Indiana holds top-10 rankings in numerous defensive categories, including Success Rate allowed, Line Yards, Quality Drives allowed and Rush EPA allowed.
Edge Tobi Osunsanmi has 15.5 tackles for loss this season, leading a defense that has generated 32 sacks and 76 tackles for loss. A true test comes against a USC offensive line that's one of the best in limiting opposing pass rushes.
USC vs Indiana Prediction
USC has pulled off two conference victories on the road this season against Penn State and Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights racked up 35 points on the Trojans defense, while the Nittany Lions managed to score 23 directly after losing their best player on offense.
USC did lose to Wisconsin, which has struggled on offense at times. But against the Trojans in Week 8, it managed to score in every quarter.
No matter who the quarterback is for Indiana in Week 11, there's every expectation that the Hoosiers will have more offensive success than a trio of games leading into the bye week.
Indiana's rushing attack has struggled all season, but it has advantages in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and Success Rate when hosting USC.
The bigger advantage comes in the passing game, as the Trojans rank 120th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Patterson keeps the Trojans in quarters coverage, designed to limit explosives. Hoover has dominated quarters this season at a 57% Success Rate while creating an explosive on one of every four attempts.
If Hoover is playing for his starting job, the USC defense should oblige by allowing Indiana to get into scoring position.
There's every expectation that USC will move the ball through the air.
Maiava dominates Cover 3, Indiana's preferred coverage, with a 58% Success Rate and an average of 0.3 Expected Points Per Play.
While neither team plays uptempo, the number of possessions could exceed the national average. Neither USC nor Indiana has had success in running the ball, with both sitting outside the top 50 in Success Rate and EPA.
Both offenses excel at protecting the quarterback, while USC's tendency to rush takes a dive on second and third down.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Indiana to be favored by 8.5 points, within a point of alignment with the current market.
The better wager comes on a total that sits south of the key number 51.
Both offenses are expected to pass early thanks to inefficient running games, while both have offensive lines that can provide protection.
The Hoosiers also find themselves in a quarterback battle, as Cignetti and the coaching staff may want to get Wilson as many game reps as possible with the potential Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff on deck.
Pick: Over 50.5 or Better
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Utah vs. Arizona Pick
Utah Utes
Utah won the Holy War during a titanic Week 10, but how much is to blame on a meltdown from BYU?
The Cougars made uncharacteristic mistakes all over the board, from four interceptions by Bear Bachmeier to 11 penalties and critical missed tackles.
BYU actually outgained Utah by 6.1 to 5.3 yards per play, relying on special teams and turnovers to gain advantageous field position.
Utah failed to establish a methodical drive on offense, finishing with nearly 10% fewer available yards than the national average.
Quarterback Devon Dampier has filled the highlight reel this season, but a mark of 103rd in Havoc allowed has yet to translate to wins for the Utes.
The Utah defense missed more tackles than BYU did in the game, sinking its PFF tackling grade further to 89th.
The Utes continue to struggle to create a pass rush and have allowed explosive plays at critical moments.
Utah's defense ranks 112th in passing downs EPA allowed, as head coach Morgan Scalley continues to see the undefeated defense fall outside the top 100 in 30-yard passes allowed.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona will have extra rest after a Friday night conference win over TCU. Although the Wildcats beat the Horned Frogs by a point, head coach Brent Brennan exited Week 10 with a 64% post-game win expectancy.
Arizona averaged nearly two yards per play more than TCU, tossing eight explosive passes through the arm of quarterback Noah Fifita.
The fifth-year senior has 21 passing touchdowns on the season with just six turnover-worthy plays, resulting in the lowest mistake rate of his career at Arizona.
Fifita has two of the most dangerous weapons among any Power 4 pass-catching combinations: wideout Isaiah Mizell and slot receiver Giovanni Richardson.
Richardson clocks in at 4.4 yards per route run, the only player in college football with 35 targets to exceed the explosiveness of Miami's Malachi Toney.
Danny Gonzales' nickel defense ranks highly in Success Rate but falls in the middle of FBS in generating Havoc. Arizona resides in the top 30 in Success Rate, closely matching a top-40Â rank in yards per game and points allowed.
The Wildcats have one of the lowest pressure rates this season but have made each attempt pay, ranking among the top 10 in sacks. Edge Chase Kennedy has six on the season, also tied in pressures with edge Cooper Blomstrom.
One key to beating Utah will be average distance on third down, as Utah ranks fourth nationally in conversions, while Arizona is 77th in third-down defense.
Utah vs Arizona Prediction
The biggest question around Utah is a hangover from both on- and off-field issues. The Utes are completing a whirlwind schedule that includes a Holy War victory, road wins over Cincinnati and Colorado and an unlikely fourth-quarter cover against Houston.
Off the field, Utah entered the College Football Playoff as the third-best team in the initial rankings, but the pressure mounts on the undefeated season week by week.
The Utes have a softer strength of schedule at 69th, with numerous stat categories outside the top 100, including Stuff Rate, explosives allowed and various special-teams units.
Arizona has experience facing Utah's multiple-run concepts. Zone read, power and counter have been the calling card for the Utes' combination of Dampier and running back Wayshawn Parker.
The Wildcats have at least a 51% Success Rate against all combinations and an even higher 60% Success Rate against zone read with two tight ends.
Utah runs a heavy amount of outside zone with 12 personnel, an area Arizona should provide stops through the defensive line.
When the Wildcats have the ball, Utah could struggle to defend Mizell and Richardson. The Utes have one of the heaviest man-coverage schemes in the FBS, but Fifita has carved up opponents in man coverage with a 51% Success Rate.
A potential pivot to Cover 1 could increase the chances of an explosive play from Fifita, with an EPA of 0.25 per attempt.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings list Utah as a -1 favorite, giving Arizona the edge in the market. The Utes could be in a post-BYU hangover but have dipped into luck territory with a 27% post-game win expectancy against Colorado.
Arizona has the numbers in the passing game to give the Utes' secondary a tough evening, while a top-10 sack total should keep Dampier contained in the pocket.
Pick: Arizona +2.5 or Better
