How is it already week 11 of college football? The season goes by so fast!
The weather is getting colder, and more games have potential weather issues this time of year, so include that in your handicapping.
The team totals selections went 2-1 last week, so it was a good weekend.
Allow me just a second to vent about the one loss. Arizona under 27.5 was a winner if TCU could recover an onside kick. Arizona wisely kicked it in the air over the line of TCU players. TCU then fumbled, and the rest is history. I feel like it should have been a 3-0 week, but we will take the winning weekend.
Get out your favorite beverage and enjoy a great weekend of college football. Let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction
I’m not breaking any news here, but Mississippi State misses Kamario Taylor badly.
The Bulldogs have failed to score more than 23 points in all four games without him. That includes last week, when they played a poor Vanderbilt defense and failed to score once in the first half.
Auburn is coming off a close call. The Tigers didn’t show up ready to play, and they were nearly beaten at home by Arkansas. Alex Golesh and the coaching staff should find enough motivation coming off that gross performance.
This will be my smallest play of the week because of the tempo. Both teams rank top-ten nationally in pace, so there will be plenty of possessions.
That said, these two offenses aren't very efficient.
The best way for the Mississippi State offense to move the ball lately has been through the explosive running attack. Fluff Bothwell is a talented runner, and he has broken off a couple of long runs against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt in recent weeks.
That said, Auburn’s defense ranks 15th nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed — the Tigers are well-suited to stop the Bulldogs' attack.
Even when Mississippi State has moved the ball in recent weeks, it's failed to finish drives.
Until I see Mississippi State clear this team total without Taylor, I have to bet the Under.
Pick: Mississippi State Team Total Under 24.5
Confidence Rating: B
Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
The Flames are in the running for the G6 CFP spot, but the biggest issue on their resume is strength of schedule.
Therefore, the Flames need style points every time they can get them, and Saturday is a great opportunity.
Middle Tennessee State ranks 136th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, 133rd in yards per carry allowed, and 116th in QBR allowed. The Blue Raiders can't stop a nosebleed, allowing 42 points to Western Kentucky in Week 10 and 44 points to Kennesaw State in Week 9.
Liberty is a dangerous rushing attack, leading the nation in Rush Success Rate while ranking 34th in Points Per Opportunity. The Flames can move the rock and finish drives. While they don't throw the ball much, Deshawn Purdie should have plenty of time in the pocket to find some open looks, given the Flames rank 12th nationally in yards per attempt while Middle Tennessee ranks 135th in Havoc.
I think Liberty hangs a big number on Saturday.
Pick: Liberty Team Total Over 37.5
Confidence Rating: B
For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.
San Jose State vs Air Force Prediction
The Spartans boast a good defense.
They're allowing just 22.7 points per game, and that number is actually a bit skewed after USC dropped 42 on them in Week 1. They rank 31st nationally in Explosiveness allowed, having allowed just eight 20-plus-yard rushing plays on the season.
Head coach Ken Niumatalolo spent 15 years at Navy running the triple-option, so he knows exactly how to stop it. Since Niumatalolo took over at San Jose State, the Spartans have played the Falcons twice, holding them to 4.1 yards per play last season and 3.0 yards per play the season before.
Air Force is coming off their emotional win over Army. That wasn’t just any win over the Black Knights, as it gave Air Force the 2026 Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. The Falcons are well coached, but this is a tough spot for them.
Meanwhile, San Jose State will get up for this one, and I expect them to slow down the Air Force attack.
Pick: Air Force Team Total Under 30.5
Confidence Rating: A
