Welcome to our weekly Havoc Rankings, where defensive chaos and offensive discipline are used to predict the outcome of a game.
New Mexico protected a lead in the defensive Havoc department, as Virginia Tech took a step back in a loss to Clemson, while Tennessee and Louisiana Tech continue to climb on the defensive side of the ball.
The safest offense in the nation continues to be Notre Dame after a big win over Miami.
For those unfamiliar, Havoc is the collection of stats that can derail offensive momentum on the defensive side of the ball, including tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions, and sacks.
Havoc allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions, and tackles for loss allowed.
Let's take a look at our college football picks for Illinois vs. UCLA and Week 11 Havoc Rankings for the upcoming week.
College Football Picks, Havoc Rankings
Illinois vs. UCLA Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +300 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -375 |
Week 11 brings two of the safest offenses in the nation, as both Illinois and UCLA sit in the top 10 in Havoc allowed.
The difference in this game is the lack of chaos for the visitor, as Illinois ranks outside the top 100 in Havoc compared to UCLA at seventh in the nation.
The Bruins have been highly opportunistic in the luck department, recovering 10-of-16 opponent fumbles. No other team in the nation has had double-digit fumble recoveries.
Illinois has been lifeless on the defensive side of the ball in creating takeaways. A poor Havoc ranking is a product of minimal tackles for loss and a pass rush rank at 121st, per PFF.
Without pressure on new UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, explosive passes are sure to hit a Fighting Illini defense that's 117th in Pass EPA allowed. Dieffenbach is coming off a game with just eight completions for more than 300 yards against Minnesota.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project UCLA to exceed market expectations, power-rated as an 11-point favorite over Illinois.
The Fighting Illini have won four straight and hve qualified for a bowl, taking any pressure off must-win games for a postseason appearance.
Look for UCLA's Defensive Havoc and Dieffenbach’s explosive passing to cover the number against an Illinois team that has lost big in two previous Big Ten West Coast trips.
Pick: UCLA -10 or Better
