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The Houston Cougars take on the Colorado Buffaloes in Boulder, Colorado, on Friday, Nov. 13. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -385. Colorado, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +310 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Colorado prediction and college football pick for Friday, November 13.
Houston vs Colorado Prediction
- Houston vs. Colorado Pick: Over 50.5 (-128)
My Colorado vs. Houston best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Houston vs Colorado Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -385 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +310 |
- Houston vs Colorado point spread: Houston -9.5 (-110), Colorado +9.5 (-110)
- Houston vs Colorado over/under: 51.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Houston vs Colorado moneyline: Houston -385, Colorado +310
Houston vs Colorado College Football Preview
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Offensive Efficiency
Houston heads to Boulder at 7-2 following a 31-24 victory over Cincinnati, and while Willie Fritz's defense has received plenty of recognition this season, I'm much more interested in the Cougars' offensive efficiency against Colorado.
Houston ranks eighth nationally in EPA/Play at +0.28 while averaging 30.3 points per game and 203.5 rushing yards per game. That's an extremely attractive profile against a Colorado defense allowing +0.10 EPA/Play, ranking 61st nationally.
The biggest advantage comes through the passing game, as I do have respect for the Buffs' defensive front.
Quarterback Conner Weigman has developed into one of the Big 12's most productive dual-threat QBs, accounting for 65 total touchdowns since the beginning of 2025, including 47 passing TDs and 18 rushing scores.
Weigman's ability to create explosives through the air while extending plays with his legs creates problems for Colorado. Houston also holds advantages in offensive Success Rate, passing downs Success Rate and EPA/Pass in this matchup.
Those are particularly important because the Cougars aren't forced to rely exclusively on explosive plays to move the football. They’ve been able to sustain possessions, establish the ground game and capitalize when defenses are forced to bring additional defenders into the box.
Running back Re'Shaun Sanford II has recorded multiple 100-yard rushing performances this season, plus two touchdown runs of at least 50 yards. Houston's rushing attack has produced 16 TDs, compared to just nine for Colorado.
The Cougars have also scored at least 30 points in three consecutive games, including 35 against Oklahoma State and 31 against Cincinnati.
That recent production is more encouraging than simply looking at their season-long scoring average, as the offense is clicking at the right time.
Colorado's defensive front does have some playmakers in linebacker Gideon Lampron, who leads the Buffaloes with 96 tackles, and Lamont Lester Jr., who has recorded five sacks.
However, individual production and some weaker opponents may have inflated their defensive statistics. I expect the Coogs to score at will here.
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview: All Air, No Ground
Colorado enters Friday at 3-6 following a 20-10 loss to Arizona State, and while the Buffaloes' offensive numbers aren't particularly impressive, there's a reasonable path toward production against Houston's defense.
Quarterback Isaac Wilson completed 20-of-31 passes for 248 yards, a touchdown and an interception against the Sun Devils. Wide receiver Joseph Williams was outstanding, catching seven passes for 121 yards and a score.
Williams now has 853 receiving yards and six TDs this season, giving Colorado a legitimate downfield weapon capable of creating explosives against an aggressive defensive front.
The biggest issue has been offensive consistency. Colorado ranks 121st nationally in EPA/Play at -0.01 while averaging just 15.8 points per game against FBS competition.
The Buffaloes also managed only 64 rushing yards on 34 attempts against Arizona State, averaging 1.9 yards per carry. That's not exactly the formula we need against the Coogs to put points on the board.
However, Houston's opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency is considerably worse than its traditional scoring numbers suggest. The Cougars rank 111th nationally in EPA/Play allowed at +0.20, despite surrendering just 21.3 PPG.
That discrepancy tells me there's regression looming for the Coogs defense, and it creates an opportunity for Colorado to generate more offense than its recent results suggest.
Houston vs Colorado Pick, Betting Analysis
This total opened around 47.5 before getting bet toward 50.5 and 51.5, and I'm willing to play over 50.5. The biggest mismatch is Houston's offense against Colorado's defense.
The Cougars' offensive efficiency and passing advantages give Weigman multiple ways to attack the Buffaloes.
The pace is another important factor.
Houston averages nearly 70 offensive plays per game, while Colorado averages more than 68, for a projection of approximately 134 combined snaps.
That's slightly above the national average. The main concern is Colorado's offensive inconsistency, but Houston's defensive EPA profile suggests the Buffaloes could have opportunities through the air.
Colorado's turnover margin of approximately -1.4 per game also introduces the possibility of short fields. Houston's defense has forced 13 turnovers, which could create additional scoring opportunities for Weigman and Co.
The biggest counterargument is that Houston has allowed 30 points just once this season. However, this over doesn't necessarily require Colorado to score 30.
If Houston reaches the mid-30s, Colorado needs only a couple of touchdowns and a field goal to make this interesting.
I'll trust Houston's offensive advantages and the potential for additional possessions to get some cheap scores for the Buffs.
Pick: Over 50.5Â (-128)
Houston vs Colorado Betting Trends
