A wild Week 1 in college football wraps up Monday when the SMU Mustangs (0-0) travel to play the Florida State Seminoles (1-0) in Tallahassee.
Florida State comes off a shaky Week 0 game where it couldn’t separate itself from New Mexico State, ultimately winning 34-17 (it was 27-17 until four minutes remained). SMU plays its first game of the 2026 season with high expectations.
SMU is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Read on for my Florida State vs SMU picks and college football parlay for Monday, September 7.
Florida State vs SMU Picks, Parlay
- SMU -2.5
- Kevin Jennings Over 32.5 Pass Attempts
Parlay Odds: +250 (bet365)
Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs SMU Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 53.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Spread Pick: SMU -2.5
One of the biggest perks Action Network PRO offers you is the ability to see sharp moves on sides, totals and moneylines for all games. This week, SMU received sharp money that pushed it above a field goal at some books; others left -2.5 with some juice.
In retrospect, the final score wasn’t perfectly indicative of game flow in Florida State’s season opener. It held a 12% Success Rate advantage and an 18% available yards advantage.
Running back Ousmane Kromah absolutely looked the part, rushing for 117 yards (86 after contact) on just 14 carries. FSU’s front seven dominated, giving New Mexico State no chance to run effectively.
But the step up from NMSU’s offensive front to SMU’s is significant.
Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee didn’t feel the need to add any linemen in the portal, which is a testament to the players he returns as well as the ones his staff recruited. This front should be a top-five unit in the ACC.
Twice last week, Florida State gave up exhaustingly long drives, shortening the first and third quarters to just three possessions each.
Against an offense like SMU’s — one that should be able to find one single successful play inside the opposing red zone, unlike NMSU — the 'Noles need to sustain drives themselves, rather than allow them to be sustained.
Our own Collin Wilson pointed out a well-documented trend: Teams that played in Week 0 are just 42% against the spread when playing Week 1 teams who did not play a Week 0 game.
SMU Player Prop: Kevin Jennings Over 34.5 Pass Attempts
There may be some trepidation about Kevin Jennings, who jammed a finger on his throwing hand badly enough to miss some camp time and make the August news cycle.
There’s nothing that indicates he won’t play, and we might be getting a slight discount on his passing props.
Only four times during last regular season did Jennings attempt fewer than 34 passes. Of those, three were instant blowouts against East Texas A&M, Stanford and Boston College.
Given the spread of this game, oddsmakers and bettors don’t foresee a huge blowout in Tallahassee here.
Even though it came against an inferior opponent, Florida State’s run defense looked the part. Of the Aggies’ 20 rushing attempts, 10 went for two or fewer yards.
SMU breaks in two new running backs (and a trio of new offensive coordinators, though Lashlee will call the plays) and a few new starters up front.
Should SMU not find much early on running the ball, the bulk of the offensive output will fall squarely on Jennings’ shoulders.
New Mexico State found success through the air, even connecting on five explosive plays. Expect SMU to try and exploit that with a much, much better passing game.
Florida State vs SMU Same-Game Parlay
- SMU -2.5
- Kevin Jennings Over 32.5 Pass Attempts
Parlay Odds: +250 (bet365)
