Florida State vs. Miami Betting Odds, Sharp Action, Model Projections, Expert Picks (Saturday, Sept. 26)
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: James Blackman
Florida State vs. Miami Odds
|Florida State Odds||+11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Miami Odds||-11.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+310/-410 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||53.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
It’s taken until game day for the betting dust to fully settle on tonight’s Florida State-Miami showdown. But now that it has, it’s become very clear — thanks to our PRO Report feature — exactly how sharps are seeing this game, both on the spread and total.
And as it turns out, that sharp action aligns with our model’s projections as well as our college football experts’ picks.
Let’s take a look.
Florida State vs. Miami PRO Report (Spread)
While the open-to-current line movement shows action toward Miami, the real pro money didn’t hit this game until the spread had already risen significantly. And as displayed by the PRO Report, it’s come on the underdog — as have some picks from our experts.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — have landed on FSU since this line hit +12 (at +12 and +11.5), getting this line back down to its current listing, even though 62% of bettors have taken Miami.
Sharp Action edge: Florida State
Part of the reason for the line’s move away from the majority has been the distribution of actual money on this spread. While only 38% of tickets have landed on Florida State, those tickets have generated 79% of actual money hitting the matchup.
Of course, that puts the monetary liability on FSU, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals how big bettors are betting this game. And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from sharp bettors over a large sample. So a large discrepancy, such as this one, can be seen as a strong indication of pro action.
Big Money edge: Florida State
Our college football experts have been in agreement with the sharps, as three of them have taken the points in this game. You can follow all of our experts’ picks and get real-time notifications in the Action App.
Top Experts edge: Florida State
Florida State vs. Miami PRO (Total)
Sharps haven’t left this game with just a spread pick, however. They’ve also been finding value on the total — specifically, the under — and our model’s projections agree with their take.
Two more SI Bet Signals have revealed sharp action hitting the under at 57 and 55.5, which have helped bring this total down from that 57-point opener to its current listing of 54.
Sharp Action edge: Under
This move, unlike that of the spread, has come in agreement with the majority. But still, the 63% of bettors on the under have accounted for nearly all of the money hitting this total, making the opinions of the high spenders clear.
Big Money edge: Under
Given that they’ve been hammering away at the under, it’s pretty clear that sharps think this total is a bit too high. And our projections agree.
We’ve pegged this over/under at 46.6, giving value to the under even at its current listing.
Model Projections edge: Under