Florida State vs Georgia Odds, Picks & Predictions | Orange Bowl Betting Preview
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Florida State vs Georgia Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+21.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-21.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
The Florida State Seminoles take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the Orange Bowl Saturday afternoon in Miami.
Heading into this game, it’s looking more like Georgia is going to roll out a team near full strength. The Bulldogs were the No. 1 team in the country all year until losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Many believed that Florida State should’ve been in the College Football Playoff as an undefeated Power 5 conference champion. However, the Seminoles’ roster continues to wane as they’ll be without at least 20 players due to the transfer portal, injuries or opt-outs.
Where does the betting value lie in this Orange Bowl matchup? Let's dive in.
Ever since Week 11, Florida State has been going through it. Despite going undefeated this season, the Seminoles found themselves in the Orange Bowl after losing quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury.
We really don’t know what we’ll see out of this team since most of the members will no longer be suiting up.
Backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker recently entered the portal, so FSU will be thin under center. That means we’ll probably see freshman Brock Glenn start after he threw for just 55 yards on 8-of-21 passing in the AAC Championship.
FSU had a really explosive offense this season. However, leading receivers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell all opted out for the NFL Draft. So, we’ll most likely see tight end Kyle Morlock and wide receiver Darion Williamson as two of the main targets.
The run game has suffered, but it’s not like it was great anyway.
The Seminoles ranked 109th in Success Rate on the ground and now will be missing more than half of their running back room. Trey Benson opted out, Lawrance Toafili is out with injury, and CJ Campbell and Rodney Hill entered the portal. Now, Samuel Singleton Jr. and Caziah Holmes will most likely get the majority of the carries.
Florida State’s defense was among the best in the nation. It was ranked second nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate, which would’ve been big against the Bulldogs.
However, we won’t see a big chunk of the defense.
Jared Verse, Fabien Lovett, Akeem Dent, Renardo Green and Jarrian Jones have all opted out for the draft, while DJ Lundy entered the transfer portal. Luckily for the Seminoles, they'll still have Kalen DeLoach and Shyheim Brown, who were among the team's leading tacklers.
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It doesn’t look like the Bulldogs will have many opt-outs. While there are quite a few players in the portal, the only two names that stand out in terms of opt-outs are tight end Brock Bowers — a projected top-15 pick in the draft — and offensive tackle Amarius Mims, another projected first-rounder.
Quarterback Carson Beck had himself a wonderful year in his first full season as a starter, completing 72% of his passes for over 3,700 yards to go with a 22:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Beck has helped Georgia rank second in Passing Success Rate while placing third in PPA. Even without Bowers, there are several options for Beck to throw to like Dominic Lovett, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and potentially Ladd McConkey, who will be a game-time decision.
For the most part, Georgia prefers to throw the ball — but that doesn’t mean the run game is ineffective. It ranks 13th in Success Rate and eighth in PPA.
Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton were a dynamic duo on the ground, each scoring at least 10 touchdowns while averaging over five yards per carry.
Defensively, the Bulldogs were decent, but they didn't possess the same qualities we're used to seeing in Athens. They thrived against the pass and struggled at times against the run, ranking 70th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
They had a number of stars, including Javon Bullard, Tykee Smith and Malaki Starks, who combined for eight interceptions. All three are ballhawks in the secondary and have helped the Bulldogs rank 11th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and seventh in PPA.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Georgia match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 6 |
Florida State Offense vs. Georgia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 12 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 1 | 33 |
| PFF Coverage | 8 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 5 | 7 |
| Middle 8 | 12 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (110) | 27.6 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 51.5% (74) | 50.5% (86) |
Florida State vs Georgia
Pick, Prediction
I truly don’t foresee a situation where Florida State comes on top — or keeps it close. It’s had a massive fall from grace since Week 11, and it's probably for the best that it’s not in the College Football Playoff.
Up until the SEC Championship, Georgia was hands down the best team in college football. The Bulldogs may have had a few games that were close calls, but they always pulled away.
While -20 sounds like a big spread for the Orange Bowl, I think it's generous. Florida State will roll out a freshman quarterback and a number of backups against a top-five Georgia team that's mostly at full strength.
Back the Bulldogs to roll in the Orange Bowl.
Pick: Georgia -20 (Play to -22.5)
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