The No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1 SEC) host the No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels (6-0, 3-0 SEC) in a top-10 SEC showdown on Saturday, Oct. 18, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Ole Miss sits atop the SEC standings, while Georgia follows closely behind. The Bulldogs toppled Auburn by a score of 20-10 last week, while the Rebels eked out a 24-21 win over Washington State.
So, who holds the advantage in this one? Let's take a look at our Georgia vs. Ole Miss picks and college football predictions for this marquee matchup on Saturday, Oct. 18.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Picks, Best Bets
By Pete Ruden
There's nothing like a top-10 SEC matchup to get the college football juices flowing on a Saturday afternoon. That's what we'll have when No. 9 Georgia hosts No. 5 Ole Miss between the hedges.
Georgia has dominated this all-time series, 33-13-1, but Ole Miss got the best of the Bulldogs last season when they pulled off a 28-10 victory in Oxford.
But things have changed since then.
Gone are Carson Beck and Jaxson Dart. Now, we'll have a battle between first-year starters Gunner Stockton and Trinidad Chambliss.
This time around, we have the makings for a good game. Georgia enters as a 7-point home favorite with the over/under sitting at 56.5.
We polled eight of our college football writers to get their take on the over/under, so let's dive in.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Ole Miss +7
By Joshua Nunn
It's almost a clean sweep. Our staff feels like Ole Miss has the goods to keep this one tight between the hedges.
It's hard to see the major advantages for Georgia here.
The Dawgs have the worst-rated pass rush grade in the SEC, per PFF, securing eight sacks and 27 tackles for loss this season.
The defense has allowed a 41% conversion rate on third downs. I'm not sure this defense is going to strike fear into Ole Miss the way the historic UGA defenses have in prior seasons under Kirby Smart.
Ole Miss has likely been preparing for this one for several weeks after coming off a bye week and then putting up a sluggish performance against Washington State. Georgia, meanwhile, has been involved in three SEC grinders the last three weeks.
This will be the most hostile environment Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has played in up to this point, and his lack of experience in tough SEC road environments will be tested here.
But Chambliss has handled business up to this point, completing 65% of his passes with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
With so much time to prepare, I expect Lane Kiffin and this Ole Miss offensive staff to get creative in their play-calling and throw a few haymakers to try to take the crowd out of it early and steal some momentum.
Georgia comes into Week 8 as the top tackling team in the SEC, per PFF, and this defense has really tightened the screws since its Week 3 showdown against Tennessee.
If Ole Miss can force some missed tackles in space and create some chunk plays in the run game, it should be able to score some points.
Offensively, Georgia hasn't been overly explosive this season, and the Ole Miss defense has been excellent in Finishing Drives allowed and preventing scores when teams cross the 40-yard line.
The Rebels are going to have to create some pressure on Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton and limit the big plays from Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young on the outside. Ole Miss ranks 12th nationally in Passing EPA allowed and 27th in preventing passing explosives.
I think it can do enough to stay within striking distance deep into the second half.
Over/Under Pick
Over 56.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 56.5 | 2 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 56.5
It’s a correlated play on the over here, with a lot to like from Duck’s analysis above.
One underrated advantage here is the time slot.
We’ve learned through systems and patterns that, typically, night games in conference play with high stakes tend to produce low-scoring environments; playing on the road in the afternoon at Georgia becomes a lot less intimidating for Chambliss than a raucous night crowd in Athens.
Those factors tend to disrupt game flow, but Saturday’s clash should expect to be a bit more wide open.
Ole Miss is likely due for some positive regression in the point column after playing a top defense in LSU and an obvious trap spot against Washington State.
A significant factor to set off a potential track meet is Ole Miss’ ability to score early.
Again, Lane Kiffin is a great play-caller, and despite operating behind a quarterback who wasn’t the opening-day starter, the Rebels can pour some gasoline on the fire in the first half.
They’re only one of 15 teams nationally to average more than 20 points over the first two quarters, and their 20.5 points per game in the first half would be on pace to break last year’s clip.
These offenses should be rolling between the hedges on Saturday afternoon.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Spread: Georgia -7.5, Ole Miss +7.5
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Over/Under: 56.5
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Moneyline: Georgia ML -270, Ole Miss ML +215
