Georgia vs. Florida Odds, Pick & Prediction: Can Gators Stop Bulldogs Ground Game?

Georgia vs. Florida Odds, Pick & Prediction: Can Gators Stop Bulldogs Ground Game? article feature image

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: D’Andre Swift

  • The latest Georgia vs. Florida odds list the Bulldogs as 6.5-point favorites, with the total rising to 47.5 on Saturday morning.
  • The Bulldogs have a big edge in the trenches, but can the Gators' weapons on the outside make this a game?
  • This serves as a College Football Playoff elimination game, with the winner taking a strangehold on the SEC East.

Georgia vs. Florida Odds & Pick

  • Spread: Georgia -6.5
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

A pair of one-loss teams with national championship aspirations meet on Saturday.

And given the respective position of each, it’s a knockout game.

This is essentially a Sweet 16 matchup as the winner has a clear path to the SEC Championship Game, where a win would give either a great shot at making the College Football Playoff (assuming the winner doesn’t stumble before that game).

Georgia has allowed just one opponent to reach 20 points, a defeat to South Carolina 20-17 in Week 7. The Gamecocks had just an 8% post game win expectancy thanks to Jake Fromm’s first pick six of his career along with some conservative play calling.

Florida lost at LSU in which Joe Burrow his final three drives for touchdowns. The Gators earned plenty of respect after the game in Baton Rouge, as Kirby Smart remarked in his Monday presser how dangerous Kyle Trask is at quarterback for Florida.

Model Prediction for Georgia-Florida

Collin Wilson’s power ratings can be used to project the point spread between any two teams. His full Week 10 projected point spreads are here. He also projected every over/under for Week 10.

  • Spread: Georgia -7
  • Total: 57.3

How Georgia-Florida Odds Have Shifted

Early sharp action hit Georgia-Florida this week, moving the line from UGA -3.5 to -6.5, which is more in line with our power ratings.

Just 32% of the bets are on the Bulldogs as of Friday afternoon, but the money bet is dead even.

The total has also dipped two points, from 47 to 45. — Steve Petrella

Assessing the Offenses

The Georgia head coach is correct. Trask leads a Florida attack that is No. 8 in passing success rate, but 78th in pass explosiveness.

Florida is 52nd on total offense, with all the water being carried by the passing game, with the rushing success rank at 114th.

Georgia should sell out to defend the passing game, which is a strength of the Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s defense is 12th in opponent passing success rate.

The Bulldogs will do their best to keep Jake Fromm in standard downs, as Georgia has a pass explosiveness rank of 117th. It’s not that he can’t make the throws, but Georgia has been very conservative on offense all year. — Collin Wilson

Georgia boasts maybe the best offensive line in college football. Per Football Outsiders, the Dawgs rank No. 1 in Line Yards. Compare that with Florida’s ranking of 98 and you can see just how much better Georgia is in this area.

The offense does lack explosiveness in the passing game (although potentially getting wide receiver Lawrence Cager back could help there) but Jacob Fromm is a quality quarterback and head coach Kirby Smart has one of the best rushing attacks in FBS. Georgia is one of only five teams nationally averaging over 6 yards per carry. — Stuckey

Wilson: My Projected Spread

Our Action Network numbers make this game Georgia -7, well ahead of the market that currently sits at -5.5 after a brief dip to -3.5 and -4 earlier in the week. One team has a clear advantage in offensive and defensive success rate, along with havoc, third down conversion and red zone.

If Georgia can resolve issues in identifying explosive receiving targets, the Bulldogs would have a legitimate chance at winning the College Football Playoff after beating Florida. — Collin Wilson

Collin’s Pick: Georgia -5.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Assessing the Defenses

The Georgia defense has been rock solid all season, ranking in the top 10 in yards per play and passing yards per attempt. Now, with the secondary likely getting Tyson Campbell back, they are one of the few units in all of college football that can match up with Florida’s deadly receiving corps. It doesn’t create too much havoc but it’s very fundamentally sound at every level.

The Gator talent on the outside is among the best in the country, especially when you include tight end Kyle Pitts, who plays more like a receiver. Dan Mullen’s bunch will also benefit from the return of Kadarius Toney, one of the most electric wideouts in the country.

The Florida aerial attack is lethal because of the weapons on the outside and Pitts is a matchup nightmare for any team.

That said, the rest of the Florida offense has struggled this year, especially on the ground as the Gators are only averaging 4.3 yards per carry (75th nationally).

You can blame the backs but the offensive line, which was the major question mark about the Gators coming into the season, just isn’t getting enough push. The Gator OL sits outside the top 75 in almost every advanced metric. Don’t expect Florida to get much on the ground.

Now, Florida does have a quality defense, led by an excellent secondary (as usual) and aggressive play calling from Todd Grantham, who will also have his two best pass rushers back for this game.

But this team has really struggled to defend the interior rush against Power 5 teams this season. And that’s where I think Georgia is going to focus their attack on behind its dominant offensive line. — Stuckey

Red Zone Edge, Georgia

I don’t think Georgia will completely shut down the Florida passing game but I do think the Bulldogs will continue having success in the red zone, where they’ve been the stingiest team in the nation. UGA ranks third in the country in overall red zone scoring percentage and first in TD percentage allowed.

With a more restricted field for the freshman QB and no running game to speak of, Georgia should turn many potential Florida 7’s into 3’s.

Georgia has won the past two meetings by a combined 54 points. It will be much closer but I think we see the same result in a lower scoring game.

I think the difference will be the Georgia redzone defense and their clearly superior offensive line, which will allow them to eat up yards in the run game between the tackles. Give me the under. — Stuckey

Stuckey’s Pick: Under 45 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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