Heisman Odds Watch: Is Tagovailoa a Lock to Win the Award?

Heisman Odds Watch: Is Tagovailoa a Lock to Win the Award? article feature image
Credit:

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa

  • Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa is now a -1000 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
  • Shea Patterson is the only other player to see his odds rise, while Kyler Murray and McKenzie Milton are among the biggest fallers this week.

If oddsmakers are right about the current standing of the Heisman Trophy race, we might as well hand over the award to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa this afternoon.

Following Alabama’s most recent victory over LSU, Tua is listed as a -1000 favorite to win this year’s Heisman — up from -400 last week.

Eight players are still listed with odds. Other than Tua, only Michigan’s Shea Patterson saw an odds increase following Week 10.

Here’s where the entire list stands now:

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.

Risers

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama): -400 to -1000 (80% to 90.91% implied probability)

Week 10 @ LSU: 25 for 42, 295 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. 49 rush yards on 3 attempts, 1 TD.

Tua’s implied chance to win this year’s award has now exceeded the 90% mark. Lamar Jackson was the last player to hit -1000 or higher prior to Week 11 (2016), and we all know how that wound up.

Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan): +1600 to +1200 (5.88% to 7.69% implied probability)

Week 10 vs. Penn State: 11 for 17, 144 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. 42 rush yards on 11 attempts, 1 TD.

As long as Michigan keeps winning, it seems that oddsmakers are going to keep bolstering Patterson’s Heisman stock.

His numbers haven’t jumped off the page this year, but as of last night’s rankings, he’s now the leader of a playoff-bound team, which puts him in the trophy conversation.

Fallers

Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma): +550 to +900 (15.38% to 10% implied probability)

Week 10 @ Texas Tech: 20 for 35, 360 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. 100 rush yards on 11 attempts, 1 TD.

Even though his Week 10 stat line was arguably the most impressive of the Heisman contenders, Murray’s chances took a hit as a result of Tua’s significant odds increase.

McKenzie Milton (QB, Central Florida): +2500 to +10000 (3.85% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 10 vs. Temple: 17 for 33, 312 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. 19 rush yards on 7 attempts, 1 TD.

Unfortunately for Milton, his shot at a Heisman Trophy is largely tied to UCF having a chance to make the College Football Playoff.

With that being essentially ruled out, Milton has gone from a longshot to almost being left off the board in this week’s odds release.

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