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Thursday. Night. Football.
Thursday's NFL game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens isn't the only action on the gridiron tonight. In fact, we have three college football games on the docket as well.
Our staff broke down all three games — Florida Atlantic vs. UTSA, Southern Miss vs. James Madison and Howard vs. South Carolina State in the FCS — and came through with a pick for each.
With so much action to get to, let's dive into their Thursday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for November 5.
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Thursday College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Howard vs. South Carolina State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with South Carolina State listed as a 15.5-point favorite with a total set at 50.5. I'm going to lay the number with the Bulldogs.
The Howard offense finds itself in major trouble here against the Bulldogs defense, which grades out as the strongest in the MEAC.
Howard will try to run the football, but it won't find success against an SC State front that's allowing just 2.2 yards per carry against non-option teams.
MEAC foes can't find consistent running lanes, and last week, Morgan State ran for -12 yards with sack yardage.
The defensive line has the strongest pass rush in the MEAC. Ka’von Chisolm leads the charge with seven sacks. Jordan Dollard has four sacks, Joshua Barker has 4.5 sacks, and the team has registered 28 as a team, along with 72 tackles for loss.
The Howard offensive line has struggled with allowing activity in the backfield and is now going to be squaring up a backup quarterback who has not played well.
Howard is converting just 30% of third-down attempts, and the red-zone performance has been inadequate in many games.
SC State has been elite on money downs this year, allowing just 25% of third-down attempts to be converted. The defense also hasn't allowed a red-zone touchdown in seven of its nine games.
Howard isn't going to score many points in this game.
The SC State offense has been revamped since the bye week, and quarterback Keely Watson is throwing a great football right now. I don't anticipate the pressure being there for the Howard defense, and the pass explosives will be there for the Bulldogs.
This game should see SC State in firm control, and I expect a three-touchdown win at a minimum. Given the circumstances, this is going to be my largest FCS wager of the season to date.
Pick: South Carolina State -15.5 (Play to -20)
| | |
Florida Atlantic vs. UTSA Pick
By RoadToCFB
This game is all about betting numbers. At FAU +7 or better, sharp action moves in; at UTSA -7 or better, sharp action comes in on the other side, making 7 a real battleground on Thursday night.
There are also plenty of opinions on the total, which has been as low (relatively speaking) as 70.5 and as high as 74.5. Action PRO logs four sharp moves on the over and two sharp moves on FAU +7 or better.
A game with a projected high total also projects high variance.
FAU's passing attack should have itself a good day given UTSA's lack of a pass rush. Wide receiver Easton Messer should have another high-volume outing, as well, since UTSA leans heavier into zone coverage and Messer is a master route runner.
This season, UTSA has found itself largely in one-score games. Its biggest win over an FBS foe came last game just before its bye week with a 42-19 dismantling of Tulane.
However, that win was also helped along by six turnovers (four fumbles), a number that's unwise to forecast again. Linebacker Owen Pewee also logged three sacks himself, a herculean effort considering the senior had one otherwise all season.
I'm backing FAU so long as we can get +7 or better.
The Owls come off a tough road loss and, though UTSA has the rest advantage, FAU did get a full week's rest. UTSA, meanwhile, is coming off its best (and most fortunate) game of the season.
Pick: FAU +7
| | |
Southern Miss vs. James Madison Pick
By RoadToCFB
A terrific season for James Madison is unfolding fast, and the situational nightmares continue. JMU still has not gone on bye (10th straight game), and this is its third straight Thursday contest.
It hits the road for back-to-back road games, and each of its last two games came in overtime… each of which JMU lost and watched its College Football Playoff hopes dissolve.
But the Dukes can't rest. A bye week doesn't come until Nov. 21.
Southern Miss rides a two-game win streak over Louisiana and ULM, but returns home on short rest (Monroe is only 200 miles away).
Those body blows are collecting for James Madison. That became obvious in its squandered 21-0 lead to Troy and inability to separate from App State, resulting in two losses.
Now hitting the road without George Pettaway in the backfield, starting safety Jayon Harvey and red-zone target KD Mosley, JMU is in trouble once again.
At this point in the season, power ratings aren't going to change all that drastically outside of major injuries.
While it's due more confidence with a bigger sample size to work off of, it also creates opportunities for bettors who more aggressively adjust expectations on teams given their current condition.
JMU is a team that sits highly power-rated despite a pretty clear downward trend and its ultimate goal being dashed last week.
Expect USM to lean into its physical approach early and keep this game within reason at home. Taking multi-score home 'dogs during these weeknight games has been pretty fruitful across the board.
Pick: Southern Miss +14.5
