Indiana vs Ohio State Odds, Picks & Predictions | Big Ten Betting Guide
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
Indiana vs Ohio State Odds
-110o / -110u
|Ohio State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Ohio State looks to stay undefeated when it hosts Indiana at the Big House on Saturday.
After winning their first three games of the season, the Hoosiers now find themselves on a six-game losing streak with incredibly slim hope of making a bowl game.
However, they did cover as significant underdogs against Michigan and Maryland, so can Tom Allen's team cover this 40-point spread?
Ohio State is in cruise control right now, coming off a lackluster performance last weekend against Northwestern, beating the Wildcats by a score of 21-7 as 38-point favorites.
The Buckeyes no doubt have their eyes focused on the Michigan game two weeks from now, but they need to get past both Indiana and Maryland first.
The Indiana offense has been pretty bad this season, ranking 115th in Success Rate and 111th in EPA/Play.
Connor Bazelak missed last week's game against Penn State with a concussion but is expected to return against Ohio State this weekend.
Bazelak is back.
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) November 9, 2022
However, he's having a pretty terrible season after transferring from Missouri. He's averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt and owns a 53.4 PFF passing grade with nine big-time throws and 14 turnover-worthy plays.
However, Bazelak hasn't had time to throw, and he's not a great quarterback when he's under pressure.
He's been under pressure on 33.4% of his dropbacks and has a 38.6 PFF passing grade with a crowded pocket. Ohio State has a top-five pass rushing grade in college football, per PFF., so it's going to be a long game for Bazelak.
If Indiana is going to have any hope of penetrating this Ohio State defense, it'll have to do it via explosive plays, which it's found a way to do in the run game.
Running back Shaun Shivers has been struggling to break off a lot of big plays. He has just 10 rushes over 10 yards, but Indiana ranks 52nd in explosive rushing. Ohio State's front seven, meanwhile, ranks 53rd in explosive rushing allowed.
Indiana's defense has been quite bad this season, allowing 5.3 yards per play and ranking 84th in Success Rate Allowed and 75th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The front seven has actually been very good against the run, holding Penn State to just 3.7 yards per carry last weekend. It ranks 27th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed are 10th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
However, going up against Ohio State's rushing attack — which is one of the best in the country — is a different animal.
The problems with the Indiana defense have come in the secondary. The Hoosiers are allowing 7.6 yards per attempt (90th in FBS) while ranking 124th in Passing Success rate Allowed and 121st in coverage grade, so CJ Stroud should be able to throw all over this secondary.
Stroud may have had a bad game against Northwestern last week, but winds were also blowing at 30 MPH in Evanston. It'd be hard for any quarterback to find success in that type of weather.
Stroud is still the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and it's easy to see why. He owns an 83.5 PFF passing grade and has thrown for 29 touchdowns and four interceptions. He's also put up a whopping 9.9 yards per pass attempt.
While Stroud has all of the talent in the world, it also helps to have two of the best wide receivers in college football in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr..
Ohio State's run game has been just as effective. The Buckeyes are averaging 5.5 yards per carry while ranking 11th in Rushing Success Rate and fifth in Offensive Line Yards.
The two-headed monster of Miyan Williams TreVeyon Henderson have combined for a whopping 35 rushes over 10 yards and have 18 touchdowns between them.
Miyan Williams would not be denied on this long TD run💪
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 5, 2022
The Ohio State defense has been really good this season, allowing only 4.2 yards per play (5th in FBS) while ranking sixth in EPA/Play Allowed.
The biggest thing for Ohio State in this game is its ability to generate a pass rush. The Buckeyes already have 22 sacks on the season and the fifth-best pass-rushing grade, per PFF.
That's huge going up against an Indiana offensive line that ranks 120th in terms of a pass-blocking grade.
The Buckeyes' front seven has done an incredible job stopping the run, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry and ranking fourth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 14th in Defensive Line Yards. However, they have been prone to giving up explosive runs.
It doesn't get any easier throwing the ball either, as Ohio State sits sixth nationally in EPA/Pass Allowed and has the 14th-best coverage grade, per PFF.
However, if a team crosses the 40-yard line against the Buckeyes, it'll have a decent chance at putting the ball in the end zone, as Ohio State ranks 68th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Indiana vs Ohio State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Ohio State match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||43||24|
|Seconds per Play||19.4 (1)||27.8 (97)|
|Rush Rate||39.6% (129)||54.3% (61)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Indiana vs Ohio State Betting Pick
The Hoosiers are playing at an ultra-fast pace. Tom Allen's squad runs a play every 18.3 seconds, which is the fastest pace in the nation. So, they tend to go three-and-out in record time, giving the opposing offense ample opportunities to score on their lackluster defense.
Additionally, the defense gets worse as the game goes along because it's on the field so often.
Another huge advantage for the Buckeyes is that they're No. 1 in the country in Finishing Drives, while Indiana sits 75th defensively.
I love over 58 points, as I have 66.3 projected for this game.