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The No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes host the No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday, Oct. 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Iowa is coming off an incredible last-second victory over then-No. 18 Michigan in Ann Arbor.
Backed by a kick return touchdown earlier in the game, the Hawkeyes needed everything to go their way before the final drive culminated with a 16-yard Reece Vander Zee touchdown from Hank Brown as time expired for a 20-19 victory at the Big House.
On the other side, Ohio State has been on a roll since blowing a big halftime lead to Texas in a top-five clash three weeks ago.
The Buckeyes cruised to a 59-3 win over Kent State before dominating Illinois, 42-19, last week.
Ohio State enters this game as a -14 favorite, while the over/under sits at 45.5 total points. So, where does the value lie in this top-15 Big Ten battle?
We polled nine of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our Iowa vs. Ohio State picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 3.
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Iowa vs. Ohio State Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Ohio State -14
By RoadToCFB
Our Action Network staff is fairly aligned when it comes to Ohio State at Iowa. Six of our nine voters would lay the points with the Buckeyes, while three would take the points with the Hawkeyes.
Ohio State is a -14 favorite on the road, a number that’s remained fairly steady throughout the week. Moves to -13.5 and +14.5 have been taken up quickly.
Iowa comes off a huge walk-off win over Michigan in a game that took the crown for "Misleading Final of the Week." According to SP+, Iowa had a postgame win expectancy of just 7.3% — Michigan outgained Iowa by 150 yards, converted five more first downs, and possessed the ball for nine minutes more than Iowa.
Although it was a win, don’t expect markets to adjust Iowa’s power rating too much given the circumstances.
Iowa’s defense, per usual, has been outstanding under defensive coordinator Phil Parker. The Hawkeyes have successfully put a lid on opposing offenses, limiting them to some of the lowest number of explosive plays in the country.
Granted, the opposing cast of opponents hasn’t been stellar — Iowa has faced Michigan (71st in Points Per Drive), FCS Northern Iowa, Iowa State (82nd) and Northern Illinois (131st). Ohio State presents the biggest offensive challenge by far.
Of course, the eyes come down to Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who's on pace to shatter receiving records.
However, Julian Sayin will need to involve Devin McCuin, Brandon Inniss and other receivers in order to continue the success of the offense.
The run game is exceptionally limited and, though improved, the offensive line isn’t elite. Against a defense like Iowa, Ohio State will need to utilize tempo.
For Iowa to overcome the spread and possibly harken back to 2017 (in its 55-21 upset of Ohio State), Hank Brown will need to be the superior quarterback.
This cast of Iowa receivers is perhaps as good as it’s ever been, but it’ll also take on the best secondary it’s seen by far.
Pound for pound, our staff favors Ohio State’s roster across the board.
Iowa vs. Ohio State Over/Under Pick
Over 45.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 45.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Over 45.5
By RoadToCFB
In contrast to the point spread, our staff is split evenly on the point total, which sits on a moderate key number of 45. Four of our nine voters lean over 45.5, three lean under and two tab this as a coin-flip.
Aside from the historic run of Iowa offenses — a stigma that’s not even true anymore, as the Hawkeyes finished 68th in Points Per Drive in 2024 and 50th last year — there’s some legitimate pace and aggression concerns from both sides.
Ryan Day called this game another “four-quarter game,” something that haunts Buckeye faithful as it’s proven to mean, “We’ll get conservative with a lead” (see: the Texas game).
On the other side, Iowa runs a play every 27 seconds, good for 84th nationally in pace.
The Buckeyes run a much faster pace this year than last (26.3 seconds ranks 61st, compared to 30 seconds and dead last in 2025), but the offense is full of condensed formations and late-down runs.
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has not seen the same mega boost that DC Matt Patricia did coming to Columbus.
We’ll know right out of the gate which way this total is going.
Sayin and the Buckeyes make it a point of emphasis to get Smith involved early on. In all but one game this year, Smith has a first-half touchdown; in two games, he has a first-drive touchdown.
Should Smith run wild like he did against Illinois, the Buckeyes may cover much of the number themselves. But fail to see him involved (after all, he commands 41% of Sayin’s targets), and this could turn into a low-scoring rock fight.
Expect Patricia to force the ball into Brown’s hands and out of Iowa's talented backfield composed of Kamari Moulton, Braeden Jackson and Xavier Williams, among others.
Iowa vs. Ohio State Team Total Pick
Iowa Team Total Under 15.5 Points (Play to 14.5)
By Alex Hinton
In 2017, Iowa upset Ohio State in blowout fashion with a 55-24 victory. It was very unlike Iowa, which is typically known for its conservative offensive style and usually scores just enough to win.
This matchup doesn't occur as often as some other Big Ten matchups, particularly post-realignment. However, that win was Iowa’s only one in the last eight meetings.
In the last two, the Hawkeyes have scored 10 and seven points, which is about what I'm expecting from their offense this week.
Ohio State ranks 12th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 12.3 points per game. It held Ball State and Kent State to three points and also held Texas to three points through three quarters.
Iowa has claimed all season that its offense is different this year, and it did score 95 points in wins over Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa. It also went on an 11-play, 91-yard drive in the final moments to stun Michigan at the buzzer.
Still, the Hawkeyes scored 16 points against Iowa State and 20 against the Wolverines.
It reached 20 points last week because of a kick return touchdown. I liked the over in Ann Arbor in part because I expected Iowa to score a non-offensive touchdown, more likely on defense, given the Wolverines’ sloppiness thus far.
Given that most teams only have a kick or punt return touchdown once every couple of years, it's not something I'd expect in consecutive weeks.
Additionally, this is a spot where Ohio State’s defense has typically dominated on the road. Over the last two seasons in Big Ten road games, it has held seven of its nine opponents to 13 points or fewer and six of them to 10 points or fewer.
Given that Ohio State has also made a concerted effort to be more deliberate on offense in that span, I wouldn't expect it to give up two touchdowns in Iowa City this week.
Iowa vs. Ohio State Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -108 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +455 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -112 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -625 |
