Iowa State vs. Iowa Betting Odds & Preview: Did Market Overreact to Cyclones’ Week 1 Struggles?

Iowa at Iowa State, Betting Odds & Pick

• Odds: Iowa -1.5
• Over/Under: 43
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1
• Location: Ames, Iowa

All odds above as of 12 p.m. ET on Friday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

A classic September college football tradition — the CyHawk rivalry. And for the first time ever, College GameDay is headed to Ames for it.

The Hawkeyes have dominated this series of late, winning four straight, including a perfect 3-0 record against Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell. However, this rivalry has been close (for the most part) in recent years with five of the past eight meetings being decided by one possession.

Market Report for Iowa vs. Iowa State

Iowa State opened as a favorite, but that didn’t last long. In fact, it only took until Sunday night — hours after it opened — for the line to shift across the fence to Iowa -1.

From there the action was all Iowa for much of the week, getting the Hawkeyes to -2.5. A couple books even hit -3 on Tuesday night, but that number lasted only minutes.

Since that point, Iowa State has seen a bit of love which has dropped its line to +1.5. While bettors are virtually split (52% on Iowa), 62% of money has landed on the Cyclones.

As for the total, it’s been all about the under. Seventy percent of bets accounting for 79% of dollars have hit the under, dropping the opening total of 47 down to 43. — Danny Donahue

Wilson: How I'm Handicapping This Game

Our power ratings make this Iowa State -1, but any number at +3 for both sides would have value.

The Hawkeyes are taking most of the money in this matchup, and maybe with good reason. Iowa limited Rutgers to just 125 yards in a shutout victory 30-0. In Week 1, the Hawkeyes kept Miami of Ohio to 245 yards in a 38-14 win. They rank top 15 nationally in yards per play allowed.

The Cyclones narrowly beat Northern Iowa in their opener, but had 200 more total yards than the Panthers in Week 1. A similar in-state situation happened against Drake in late 2018, when Iowa State won by just 3.

The Cyclones lost both of their starting corners to graduation, which is where Stanley will target.

Ihmir Smith-Marsette was the receiver that caught the winning comeback touchdown against Iowa State two years ago and should feast against Iowa State's new corners.

But on the flip side, Iowa has had issues generating pressure against the quarterback against Miami of Ohio and Rutgers. The Hawkeyes are just 98th in sack rate so far this season, while Iowa State returns 113 career starts on the offensive line.

Quarterback Brock Purdy should have time to be the playmaker we saw through 2018. — Collin Wilson

Pick: Iowa State +2.5 or better

Miller: Alternative Approach to the Under

This game is set up to be a slugfest with a total in the low 40’s and I’m in line with that thinking. Iowa State’s only game was in Week 1 against FCS Northern Iowa, so we don’t know much about them.

Cyclones’ QB Brock Purdy was asked about his lack of running in that game and he said there’s nothing wrong with him physically, it was just in the game plan. I’m sure Iowa State didn’t want to get their quarterback hurt against an FCS team.

I expect they’ll turn him loose this week for the rivalry game. He has quite a few questions with the skill position players around him so they’ll be leaning heavily on the run game.

Through the first two games, Iowa has remained committed to the run game, as you'd expect. The problem is that they haven’t been very successful running the ball so they rely on quarterback Nate Stanley to bail them out when they get behind the chains.

These are two of the best defenses in the country and with the high emotions that will come with this game, I’m expecting it to be very low scoring in the first half. — Kyle Miller

Pick: Iowa/Iowa State under 20.5 first half

Stuckey: Injuries Creating Opportunities for Both Teams

The biggest advantage Iowa State will have is along the defensive line. The Clones have one of the best defensive fronts in the country, led by all Big-12 nose tackle Ray Lima, who will have the luxury of going up against a redshirt freshman center for Iowa.

The Hawkeyes will also be without star left tackle Alaric Jackson, who will certainly play on Sundays. However, another tackle who will play at the next level, Tristan Werfs, has moved over to left tackle at times and done so very effectively.

Still, this unit isn’t at full strength and I don’t expect Iowa to have much success on the ground. That will leave it up to Iowa’s senior QB Nate Stanley to attack the most vulnerable part of the Iowa State defense: its secondary, specifically at corner as the Clones had to replace both corners in D’Andre Payne and Brian Peavy. How many big plays downfield Stanley can connect with his receivers downfield will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa State might be without its center Colin Newell, who’s listed as questionable as of right now. That could be a big loss for an offensive line that returned all five starters.

The biggest question coming into the season was how quarterback Brock Purdy would fare without RB David Montgomery and WR Hakeem Butler, both now in the NFL.

The results in the first game against Northern Iowa weren’t great, as Iowa State’s offense struggled in a game it barely pulled out over FCS opponent Northern Iowa.

I also don’t anticipate Iowa State getting much on the ground against a stout Iowa front, which will leave the job of moving the ball up to Purdy through the air against an Iowa secondary that could potentially be without four of its top six defensive backs due to injury.

In what should be a low-scoring dog fight, which quarterback can make more plays downfield will most likely decide this one. You have to like Iowa’s matchups on the outside a little better on paper but the injuries in its secondary could provide the Cyclones with some opportunities in the passing game.

This game looks like a complete toss up in College GameDay’s first ever trip to Ames.

I do love backing Matt Campbell, who’s a stellar 49-33-2 ATS a head coach (15.9% ROI) and also has the benefit of an extra week of prep after getting a second week bye.

However, I think I need +3 to get involved here. If not, I’ll look to get the Cyclones at +3 or better live. — Stuckey

Stuckey's Pick: Iowa State +3 or better live

Trends to Know

• Iowa State has covered just once in this series over the past six games.
• Iowa State has covered just once at home the past six games in Ames.
• Iowa State is 16-7 against the spread as an Underdog since Matt Campbell became head coach in 2016.

The forecast calls for 18 mph winds during the game. Historically, it has been profitable to bet the under in windy (at least 15 mph) games.