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Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Thursday, Oct. 9

Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Thursday, Oct. 9 article feature image
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Gavin Wimsatt (Imagn Images)

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks take on the Sam Houston State Bearkats in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

Jacksonville State is favored by -8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. The total is set at 55.5 points.

Here’s my Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston prediction and college football picks for Thursday, October 9.


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Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Prediction

  • Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston Pick: Jacksonville State -7.5

My Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State best bet is on the Gamecocks to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.


Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Odds

Jacksonville State Logo
Thursday, October 9
8 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Sam Houston Logo
Jacksonville State Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-8
-110
55.5
-110o / -110u
-315
Sam Houston Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+8
-110
55.5
-110o / -110u
+255
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
bet365 Logo
  • Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston point spread: Jacksonville State -8
  • Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston over/under: 55.5 points
  • Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston moneyline: Jacksonville State -315, Sam Houston +255

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Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Preview

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Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Gamecocks More Than Meets the Eye

Despite losing a notable head coach in Rich Rodriguez, Jacksonville State still appears to be one of the better teams in Conference USA and a definite contender to appear in the league title game.

A 2-3 record may not instill a ton of confidence to the casual eye, but Jacksonville State is 1-0 in conference play and two of its three losses came by a single score.

The backfield duo of running back Cam Cook and quarterback Gavin Wimsatt has produced a top-seven rushing attack in the FBS (244.8 yards per game) and the C-USA’s top rusher (Cook, 614 yards).

But when forced to turn to the air — which, to be fair to the Gamecocks, really hasn’t been that often — the offense starts to show holes.

Wimsatt is a below-average passer, and no one receiver truly threatens through the air. Only senior Brock Rechsteiner has a receiving touchdown (three of them), and no other pass catcher averages more than 40 yards per game.

Defensively, Jacksonville State needs some work. Week 1’s result at UCF came thanks to weather interruptions, and the Gamecocks have allowed 34+ points in two of three other games against FBS foes (Georgia Southern, Southern Miss).

Better offenses can move the ball against this unit and score plenty.

However, that deficiency may only come to bite Jacksonville State again twice this season — the remainder of the schedule doesn’t feature many average FBS offenses.

Coordinator Brian Williams may have some inflated numbers come season-end thanks to a cast of foes that includes FIU (116th in points per drive), Middle Tennessee (110th) and UTEP (130th).


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Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: A Long Way to Go for Bearkats

There’s no two ways about it – Sam Houston State is bad this year. It has a bad offense (129th in points per drive) and somehow, a worse defense (132nd in points per drive allowed) with almost no salvageable parts from this roster.

Sam Houston's two closest games this year — a 41-24 opening-weekend loss to Western Kentucky and a 37-20 loss at Hawaii — featured the Bearkats allowing 24 fourth-quarter points in the two games combined.

Their latest contest ended in a 37-10 loss to New Mexico State that turned into a blowout thanks to 24 points surrendered in the fourth quarter.

Phil Longo’s Air Raid system has tanked quarterback Hunter Watson (one touchdown, four interceptions) despite some nice pieces in the passing game.

But previous top receiver Qua’Vez Humphreys has been wildly inefficient (and hurt earlier on) and the talented Michael Phoenix II is nowhere to be found in deficiencies only described as confounding.

Few teams are worse against the pass than Sam Houston. The Bearkats are next-to-last in pass EPA allowed and rank in the bottom 25 in passing success rate. The secondary is simply bad, and teams attack it early and often.

Two other factors may have contributed to this 0-5 start. First, Sam Houston isn’t playing any true home games this year while Eliot T. Bowers Stadium undergoes renovation; it plays “home” games 70 miles away in Houston.

Second, Sam Houston played just two games in September, both on the road, including one at Hawaii. It’s a rest-versus-rust debate that led to the meltdown against New Mexico State.

Unfortunately, last year’s 10-3 team is a relic of the past.


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Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston Pick, Betting Analysis

Jacksonville State opened as a -8.5 favorite in this game, but that number moved in favor of Sam Houston early in the week.

The Gamecocks come off their first bye of the year, while the Bearkats return home from that New Mexico State loss. In two games since joining the FBS, Jacksonville State took both matchups here, though both teams’ coaching staffs have moved on.

Sam Houston has decent metrics against the run, but the cast of opposing rushing attacks is beyond underwhelming.

New Mexico State has a historically bad run game, Hawaii ranks outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate, UNLV didn’t have a single player attempt 10 runs and Western Kentucky fields one of the least explosive rushing attacks in the country.

This is a new challenge for a Sam Houston team that can’t afford too many more of those.

Despite the early-week move, Jacksonville State is the better team here. Aggregated power ratings favor the Gamecocks by nearly 12 points and that factors in the road environment.

Sam Houston is a team I’m not afraid to fade, and I’m likely taking some alternate lines here, as well.

The Bearkats have a history of folding in the fourth quarter and that could get this game out of hand later on.

Fortunately, we can be patient with the best number, but this is all thanks to Jacksonville State's dynamic run game.

Pick: Jacksonville State -7.5

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