The James Madison Dukes take on the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
JMU is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 57.5 points.
Here’s my JMU vs. Texas State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, October 28.
JMU vs Texas State Prediction
- JMU vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State +7 (Play to +6.5)
My Texas State vs. JMU best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
JMU vs Texas State Odds
| JMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- JMU vs Texas State Spread: JMU -6.5, Texas State +6.5
- JMU vs Texas State Over/Under: 55.5 Points
- JMU vs Texas State Moneyline: JMU -250, Texas State +210
JMU vs Texas State College Football Betting Preview
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview: JMU Offense Blazing
The Dukes are coming off an impressive effort, dropping 63 points on Old Dominion and coming out hot in the second half after trailing at halftime. This upcoming matchup also begins with how the Dukes offense will match up with Texas State’s defense.
Through the air, the Dukes rank 70th nationally in EPA Per Pass, while Texas State’s defense ranks 97th in EPA Per Pass allowed. On the ground, the story is similar: James Madison sits 48th EPA Per Rush against a Bobs run defense that comes in at 99th.
It's safe to say we'll see little resistance from Bobs defense, so the Dukes should be able to score their share of points.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been sensational through the air and on the ground. He was projected to be the backup to Matthew Sluka at the start of the season, but he quickly had to adapt when he was thrust into the starting role.
Field position also gives the Dukes an edge. On average, they begin drives on their own 32-yard line, the seventh-best starting field position in the country. Texas State, meanwhile, allows opponents to begin at their own 30, good for 123rd in the country.
That might seem insignificant, but the advantage allows the Dukes to control tempo and avoid long-field situations.
The third-down battle will likely determine the outcome of this game. JMU converts 52.3% of its third- and fourth-down attempts, ranking 17th in the nation but faces a Bobcats defense that allows just 40.2% in those situations (32nd).
Offensively, it will come down to whether the Dukes can stay ahead of the chains and convert those money-down situations. Ultimately, the Dukes could lose the game because they're unable to convert on most of their third downs, which would allow the Bobs to steal possessions.
The JMU defense has been tremendous, but I have concerns based on what I saw in the first half against Old Dominion last week. This will be a fascinating matchup against a strong Texas State offense, which I'll dive into further below.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: Can Bobs Get Enough Stops?
Texas State’s offense is highly balanced and consistent, but this week, they face one of the most formidable defenses in the country.
The Bobcats rank 28th in EPA Per Pass and 33rd in EPA Per Rush, indicating they produce steady positive value through both phases of the offense.
I've been extremely impressed with freshman quarterback Brad Jackson, who has completed 70% of his passes and has over 1,900 passing yards on the season. He has also chipped in over 500 yards on the ground with eight scores.
The Bobs are loaded in the running back room and at the skill positions, making them a prime candidate to crack a stingy JMU defense. They also convert 48.6% of their third downs, good for 34th in the nation, and tend to face short-yardage situations with an average third-down distance of 6.1 yards (18th).
That tells me that the Bobs do an excellent job staying ahead of the chains and are solid in late-down situations. That's the formula for beating a good defensive team like James Madison.
Still, they’ll need to overcome JMU’s elite defensive unit, which ranks third nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed and 13th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
The Dukes also rank fourth in the nation in Early Downs EPA Per Play, seventh in available yards permitted and 11th in third-down Success Rate allowed at 31.9%.
Defensively, the Bobcats will have their hands full with James Madison’s physicality and explosive offense. They rank outside the bottom 90 in EPA Per Pass allowed and EPA Per Rush allowed, which poses a big problem.
However, they've been stout on third down, so if their defense can clean up on early downs, they can get off the field. They may not get many stops, but I have enough faith in their explosive offense to keep this a one-possession contest.
JMU vs Texas State Pick, Betting Analysis
This game is projected to be a back-and-forth affair despite James Madison's elite defense.
JMU holds the upper hand in defensive efficiency, but Texas State’s ability to extend drives and defend on third downs should keep this within a one-score window.
The Dukes offense relies more on quality drives than explosives. This plays directly into Texas State's hands, especially since its late-down defense has been sneakily strong.
This is more about the Texas State offense's elite talent that can crack the code against the Dukes. I have enough faith that the Bobs can score enough despite the matchup.
Expect a gritty, one-possession battle deep into the fourth quarter. The Bobcats should have a shot to drive down the field late to cover the number and potentially win the game outright.
Pick: Texas State +7 (Play to +6.5)
JMU vs Texas State Betting Trends
